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MY DALLIANCE WITH COVID

   

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404          151            ?       64 
         12          222      1995           136           9       21
         19          201      1801           115           20      31
         26          217      1528          136           14      49
June   1          347       1409         121             ?      29
           2          216       1413         130          10       31
           8          283      1660        301            8       27
           9          195      1526         148          24       24

Summary:
  • While the U.S. still was #1 in new cases yesterday, note that on a per million population basis, we are doing okay.
    • #1  USA  80993 (242)
    • #2  Germany  75,494 (899)
    • #3  Taiwan  72,913 (3038)
    • #4  North Korea  50,870 (1957)
  • We're also doing relatively well in total cases/population (% of population)
    • World  7%
    • USA  26%
    • Germany  32%
    • France  45%
    • South Korea  36%
    • Italy  29%
    • Japan  7%
    • Netherlands  47%
    • Australia  29%
    • Thailand  6%
    • Austria  47%
    • Israel  45%
    • South Africa  7%
    • Switzerland  42%
    • Denmark  51%
    • Taiwan  11%
    • Singapore  22%
  • About these cases as a % of the population:
    • I've avoided showing countries known for their poor record-keeping. 
    • Thus the world percentage of 7% can easily be 2-5 times higher, if not more.
    • Throughout the world, there is confusion about including asymptomatic cases.
      • China apparently does not count these in their report, and the fact that their recent total testing of Shanghai and Beijing populations showing that their asymptomatic rate today is around 97% certainly confuses the reality.
      • While the CDC initially thought the asymptomatic rate ranged between 20% and 40%, it is more and more looking like the actual asymptomatic rate early in the pandemic was closer to 50%.
        • Thus, the 26% of the U.S, population figure for the country should be around 50%.  
        • If you live in the U.S., probably half of your close community already has been infected.
          • 15 Craigside is a seniors' community.  
          • They test us if we show signs of a cold.
          • I've been tested at least six times, always negative.
          • However, 7 residents have tested positive.
          • Using the above info, this means with 200 residents, that is 3.5%, which is extraordinarily low.
          • With around 80 staff members, there have been 18 cases, or a rate of 23%, about the national average.  The disquieting necessity is that we are so short of staff, that asymptomatic staff people still actually work on the premises.  They always wear a mask, but still....
          • I know of no resident or staff who has died.
          • Amazingly enough, I don't personally know anyone in the world who has passed away from COVID-19.
          • Actually, this is not particularly unusual, for less that one-tenth of one percent of the world population actually died from this disease.
        • Mind you, the asymptomatic rate today is probably higher than 90% because vaccinated and boosted people generally don't show serious enough symptoms, more and more tests are taken at home and they usually are not reported.
          • Europe, however, if you say the asymptomatic rate is 50%, must mean just about everyone has caught this disease!!!  
          • Adding the vaccination and boosters, they should well be into the herd immunity level.  
          • However, the problem with the Omicron variant is that more and more people are getting infected twice and even three times!
          • All the data show that if you have been properly vaccinated and boosted twice, you probably will not get infected, but if you do, you will probably not get re-infected, and, in any case, the symptoms will be mild and the odds are very high that you will survive.
Following up on the above, I have two COVID stories.  First, some background:
  • The first known case of this current coronavirus disease was identified in Wuhan, China in December of 2019.
  • This ailment got a name on 11 February 2020:  SARS-CoV-2 for the virus and COVID-19 as the disease.
  • The World Health Organization determined this was a pandemic on 11 March 2020.
My first close encounter:
  • On 7 December 2019 I returned on the Diamond Princess to Yokohama.
  • On 20 January 2020 an 80-year old passenger from Hong Kong boarded this ship.
  • He effectively transmitted this disease to 712 of the 3711 passengers and crew, leading to 6 deaths.
  • The ship was quarantined in the Port of Yokohama from 4 February 2020.
  • Most of them were stuck until 30 March 2020, and the ship departed Yokohama on 16 May 2020.
  • While I was a month away from being involved, it still was close.
Well, on 12 February 2020, the day after COVID-19 got a name, I left on a trip to Thailand.
  • Why, you ask?  
  • Well, my attitude about the seriousness of this distant illness was not unlike that of President Donald Trump.
  • During the entire journey I hardly wore a mask.  Others, I noticed, mostly did.
  • The day I left, Thailand was #2 to China in number of COVID-19 cases.  Today, Thailand is #25 and China #110.
  • On 20 February 2020 I caught a plane from Phuket to Chiang Mai.  I quote from my blog:
We then found our way to Phuket Airport, for $20.  It took longer to get there than we expected.  When we finally got to the Air Asia counter, we were 10 minutes away from the check-in deadline.  Then it got worse, for the person who sat between us had a mask on and was coughing.  I tried to do as little talking to him as possible anyway, but we then found out he was visiting Phuket from CHINA!  How did he get into Thailand, we asked, for people from there are not allowed in.  He said something about the laxness of flying in from a small airport in his country into Phuket.  While most in the plane wore masks, except me, every few seconds someone in plane coughed.  Hope these were the ones wearing a mask.  Nevertheless, I had a beer with macadamia nuts while everyone was coughing around me.  Seemed like I was the only one eating.

I was thus worried a little bit about being infected with COVID-19, but not as much as being eaten by a tiger.

When I returned to Honolulu, I felt fine.  Read my final trip posting of 18 February 2020. 
  • I was not tested when I returned to 15 Craigside.
  • I did note that Thailand had dropped from #2 to #9 in my week or so away.  They actually had no new cases during my stay there.  However, everyone on the streets wore a mask, except me.
  • WHO did not declare this was a pandemic until 11 March 2020.
Actually, I went on a more recent inter island cruise adventure on the Norwegian Pride America last month, and only sparingly wore a mask.  This time I took two COVID tests before departure, and four more after returning to 15 Craigside.  As a precaution, we decided not to have our meals in the dining room...so as not to infect anyone.  Or maybe because we knew we were safe and did not want to expose ourselves without a mask. For much of the past few weeks Hawaii has had more new cases/day than any other state.   In any case, I will return to my dining tables and poker next week.  

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