AND THIS PANDEMIC CONTINUES

  

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 

Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12

May    5          225      2404          151            ?       64 

         12          222      1995           136           9       21

         19          201      1801           115           20      31

         26          217      1528          136           14      49

June   1          347       1409         121             ?      29

           2          216       1413         130          10       31

           8          283      1660        301            8       27

Summary:  

• This pandemic lingers.  A lot of new cases, but continuing decline in new deaths.
• The USA was #1 yesterday with 96,848 new cases.  
• The question is what multiplier do you use to get the actual new case number, because for sure there are a lot more from at home rapid test positives which mostly do not get reported.  Some authorities say multiply by up to 10.  I think 3 to 4 would be closer to reality.
• With 4% of the world population, we yesterday had 16% of the world new cases, which maybe should be doubled to one-third of the world, considering how many of these are not being reported these days.
• North Korea reported 54,620 new cases as #2.
• France, #3, with 53,802.
• The most new deaths:
• #1  Brazil 301
• #2  U.S.  283
• #3  Taiwan  159

Moderna said it is preparing a new booster for the fall.  

• Fortunately, or unfortunately, the FDA and CDC make decisions based on human tests, which take a lot time....thus the best we'll be getting is a booster to fight off only the initial early Omicron variants. 
• It appears that the four latest subvariants will not be included because human tests take too long.  
• Thus, what we'll get this fall will not be particularly effective.  Maybe during this emergency period, the government should permit the use of mice tests, which can be done easier, cheaper and quicker.
• 
  Pfizer might get to the BA.2 variant for application this fall, but in a few months BA.4 and BA.5 will be dominant, and both the Pfizer and Moderna boosters show signs of being marginal.
• There is no data indicating how effective Novavax will be for these new subvariants.
• These Omicron variants increase the rate of reinfection by a factor of five, compared to the Delta variant.

• 
  The good news is that any booster is better than none, and certainly a whole lot more effective than no vaccine at all.
• All signs point to death rates continuing to drop, and if the World Health Organization can focus on deaths and not cases, the pandemic should come to an end by the fall.  
• The wild cards, though, are long COVID and re-infections.

From the New York Times this morning, for the United States:

• Early in the pandemic Black COVID-19 deaths were about twice as high as the White rate, and more than twice as high as Asians.  The Latino death rate was somewhere in between, but much lower than Blacks.
• More recently, these rates have flipped, so during the past year, the Covid death rate for White Americans has been 14% higher than Blacks and 72% higher than Latinos.

Why?  Community outreach is being credited for this reversal.  Today, both Blacks and Latinos have a higher vaccination rate than Whites.   Mind you, looking only at total rates for the pandemic, Blacks and Latinos still show a higher death rate.

Maybe you can also credit Biden counties, for Trump counties have a lower vaccination rate. Only 60% of Republican adults are vaccinated, compared to 75% Independents and 90% Democrats.  These white Republicans tend to be white and older.  One argument is that those Trump counties have continued to mislead those who live there, another is that government propaganda (and getting vaccinated is squarely in the middle of this) further alienates those masses.  I was of course joking a year ago that this would be another reason why Democrats will do well in the coming mid-term election.  Turns out maybe these Republican deaths will be a factor.

Here is another comparison of race and age:

There were two Hispanic peaks, while the other three waves showed Blacks at the top.  These racial differences can also be seen in death rates for:

• Traffic.
• Gun violence.
• Diabetes.
• High blood pressure.
• Infant mortality.

The contention is that more money should be spent on community informational programs in lower-income areas.

One ethnic group was not even mentioned in this New York Times report.  Turns out that Native Americans have had the highest death rate.    To be more precise, 2.8 times higher than Whites.  Why?  They have an even higher prevalence of socioeconomic and health-related COVID-19 risk factors.  However, again showing community influence, Native Americans now have the highest rate of vaccination!  The overall death rate is plunging, so rate comparisons are not the same.  Looks like the COVID death rate of White Americans are being skewed by Republicans who do not get vaccinated.

If you read this blog in time, I can recommend two TV highlights:

• 
  The January 6 House committee is hosting its first public hearing at 7PM EDT (1PM Hawaii time), many channels.
• Promises to share new evidence that former President Donald Trump was at the heart of the attack on the Capitol, after interviewing more than 1000 witnesses, reading 140,000 documents and issuing nearly 100 subpoenas.
• As I have a standard Kentucky Derby drink of mint julep, and revel in tailgate foods before important football events, I have planned a special meal in anticipation of my watching this hearing. 
• Incidentally, the Belmont Stakes will be run on Saturday, and I'm already preparing the ingredients for the Belmont Jewel Cocktail, where you need pomegranate juice.
• 
  Oklahoma vs Texas, women's game 2 of the college softball world series, 1:30PM EDT (1:30 PM Hawaii), ESPN2.
• Two games ago, Oklahoma decimated UCLA 15-0.  Jocelyn Alo of Hawaii had a grand slam.
• Then yesterday, Oklahoma 16 to Texas 1, where Alo batted 3-3 with two homers.  
• Also got hit by a pitch and walked.  This made it 9 for 9 reaching base these past two games.  
• The team had six home runs, breaking a Women's College World Series game.  Oklahoma has scored 52 runs in these 5 WCWS games this year.
• Alo is the reigning two-time national player of the year, has a total of 122 home runs, with 5 in her 5 WCWS games.
• Oklahoma softball coach Patty Gasso said she was convinced to recruit Alo after seeing a wrestling video of her, where she went on to become a Hawaii wrestling champ at 184 pounds as a Kahuku High School sophomore.
• She transferred to Campbell to play softball, where she was regularly walked, then went on to Oklahoma.
• What is her future?  Not much out there for women, not even wrestling.

How can you watch both at the same time?  I plan to record the softball game, start with the hearing, but switch to the game during commercials.  Cable recorders are free here at 15 Craigside.

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