First, about that 6th House January 6 Committee hearing yesterday, Cassidy Hutchinson's performance accelerated the doom of Donald Trump. General conclusions on the morning after is that she broke the ice towards the formal indictment of the former president by the Department of Justice. Congress is having trouble subpoenaing members and close aides of the White House. The attorney general has stronger and more compelling powers to force testimony.
One problem I see is that this campaign to secure victories for Democrats on November 8 is now moving too fast. The Perfect Political Storm (upcoming posting) of abortion/gun rights, future of democracy and Trump effect needs to reach a peak in September into October to maximize victory. The Department of Justice moves so slowly anyway, that perhaps it has been calculated into the final strategy.
I get a weekly newsletter from the American Energy Society, which is the U.S. affiliate of the International Solar Energy Society.
- They both have been around since 1954.
- Not directly associated with the American Solar Energy Society.
- I've noticed that the organizations linked to an energy source (solar, oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, etc.) tend to only feature their option, ignoring the others.
- However, while the American Energy Society seems to mostly push the renewables, they also incorporate what is happening with fossil fuels and nuclear power.
- The following is an organized hodge-podge representing from Energy Matters, essentially the best from issues of the past few weeks.
- From what you get from the media, some of the bullets you will read are surprising, if not startling. Your base of information about energy will be significantly jiggled.
Are global temperatures really increasing? Yup, compared to the 1900-2000 baseline, from the American Energy Society:
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- The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere right now. For context, this is the highest recorded measurement in the last million years and the first time the total is more than 50% higher than the pre-industrial era. (From Wikipedia, a more accurate statement is...from 14 million years ago.)
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Each passenger flying from San Francisco to London is responsible for about 1 metric ton of CO2 – about half the emissions that a citizen in India releases in a year.
- Related, driving an electric vehicle costs around $1.41 per gallon-equivalent vs. $4.67/gallon for a gasoline-powered car with an ICE (US averages, as of June 1, 2022).
- Climate: The highest income households emit 5.6 times more greenhouse gas emissions per capita than the lowest income households.
- Relative to 1850, these are the gases contributing to global warming:
- A bit more than 90% of the Great Barrier Coral Reef is bleached and much of it is probably dead.
- The scale of the carbon removal challenge:
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- In 2013 California established a goal of 100% clean energy by 2050. How are they doing?
This surprised me:
- About 40% of all corn grown in the US is used for biofuels (mostly ethanol). Note: 36% of the US corn crop is used as animal feed, including distiller grains left over from ethanol production; much of the rest is exported. The smallest percentage is used for food, much of that for high-fructose corn syrup.
- Bloomberg: The cost to reach net-zero — $9.2 trillion a year every year until 2050 — is a bargain.
- Three-quarters of gas stove methane emissions occur when the stove is not being used.
- There are 8 parking spaces for every car in the US.
- The oceans absorb about 93% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
Are American corporations actually using more renewable energy? Yes:
The Ukraine War has increased the price of petroleum about $30/barrel, spurring record earnings for Russia. Last year 75% of their oil and gas exports went to Europe. This year, half will be going to Asia, especially China and India. Below, the increase in the price of petroleum:
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- COVID pandemic and reduced demand
- Supply-chain breakdown
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine
- OPEC and market manipulation
- Primary cause: lack of investment (refineries, pipelines, IMEX hubs, E&P, etc.). Insert: oil above $120/barrel, in Brent crude USD.
- Fiscal break-even production price of oil/barrel, by nation:
- Russia: $79 / barrel (down from $87/b in 2017).
- Saudi Arabia: $67 / barrel (down from $83 in 2017).
- United States: $47 / barrel (though some efficient producers break even at $37/b).
- Venezuela: $92 / barrel (not a typo).
- Conclusion: With oil prices above $100/barrel, Russia continues to finance its war.
A quote:
"We are at $120/barrel without China, so when China comes back, oil is going to go higher."
- Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Which countries are most causing global warming by using coal for electricity?
- China
- India
- Indonesia (which is the fastest growing).
Last year coal power generation rose by 9%, to 10,943 TWh, the biggest percentage increase since 1985:
Some sordid history:
- Retrospective: In 1900, roughly 50,000 horses pulled carts, cabs, and buses around the streets of London and generated roughly 1,000 tons of dung per day. All this manure attracted rats and flies, which spread disease. At the same time, coal-fired industry contributed a nearly permanent level of 600 PM air polution (significantly worse than Beijing or Delhi today). In other words, in London during the early industrial era, the coal-powered manufacturing sector and the pre-fossil fuel transportation system were literally making citizens very sick.
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- The Gates of Hell (or, the Darvaza gas crater) in Turkmenistan formed in 1971, when a Soviet drilling expedition lit a hole on fire to try to curb a gas leak. They believed that the flames would subside after a few weeks; however, the Gates of Hell continues to burn 50 years later. Meanwhile, the Centralia coal-seam mine fire has been burning underneath the borough of Centralia, Pennsylvania, US, since at least May 27, 1962, and will continue to burn for another 250 years; and, in eastern India's Jharia coal fields, there have been coal fires burning consistently since 1916. Finally, Mount Wingen in Australia has been burning for approximately 6,000 years and is the oldest known coal fire.
The cost of electricity in the U.S. will double from last summer:
Wholesale ISO market ISOs - Northeast ISO - New York CAISO (California) | Summer 2021 $50 $50 $45 $55 | Summer 2022 $115 $105 $100 $90 |
- Electric power generated from renewable sources surpassed nuclear generation in the US during 2021 (795 million megawatthours vs. 778 million MWh, respectively).
- Pundits offer many proposed pathways to a zero-emission electricity grid. Insert: a comparison of the current electricity grid (left), the IEA's version of a clean power grid (middle), and the 100% renewables' plan by Mark Jacobson, professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University (right).
- About 70% of transmission and distribution lines are well into the second half of their 50-year life expectancy, and some are more than 100 years old.
- The average US home uses about 11,000 kilowatt hours of electricity per year. To put this in perspective, a typical clothes dryer uses 3 kWh/load, which is about the total amount of kWh used each day on average by a person in sub-Saharan Africa (pop. 600 million).
- In 2021, for the second consecutive year, US nuclear electricity generation declined.
- Output from US nuclear power plants totaled 778 million megawatthours, or 1.5% less than the previous year.
- Nuclear’s share of electricity generation was similar to its average share in the previous decade:19%.
- Subtractions: three nuclear reactors with a combined 3,009 MW of capacity are scheduled to retire in the coming years (Michigan’s Palisades is scheduled to retire later this year, and California’s Diablo Canyon is slated to retire one generating unit in 2024 and one in 2025).
- Additions: Georgia's Vogtle Unit 3 is scheduled to come online this year (1,114 MW).
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SMR refers to a class of smaller modular nuclear reactors that produce less than 300 MWe—compared to larger nuclear power plants that can produce more than 1,600 MWe. Though small in size, SMRs offer a number of benefits, but none so valuable as this: flexibility. Perhaps that is also its greatest challenge?
- About 88% of all US households use air conditioning. Two-thirds of those use central AC or a central heat pump as their main AC equipment.
- China, the world’s biggest lithium battery manufacturer, has about 72% market share (note: it was about 60% in 2018). For comparison, US manufacturers have about 8.5% market share. China has by far the largest lithium resource, with Australia second.
- There is one gasoline pump for every 185 vehicles in the US.
- There is 1 EV fast-charging port for every 92 EVs.
Battery pack prices in $/kWh are falling:
- In 2015, there were three battery manufacturing gigafactories. In 2017, Tesla's gigafactory opened; today, there are 285 gigafactories globally (some under construction). However, there has been very little increase in the mining of rare earth raw materials for the manufacture of batteries at these gigafactories.
Consequently, the price for rare earth metals have gone up significantly, and many see that trend continuing. However, COVID prevention lockdowns in China are causing the largest consumer of rare earth metals to slow down — for instance, copper prices are falling. Below: price changes for rare earths in the last five years:
- Lithium +700%
- Nickel +250%
- Cobalt +100%
- Manganese +100%
- Graphite +25%
- Universities in the Spotlight - Hydrogen RD&D  |
- UCLA engineers have developed a solar thermal solution that turns methane into hydrogen. - University of Wyoming has launched the Hydrogen Energy Research Center (H2ERC). - University of Louisiana at Lafayette, University of Oklahoma, University of Arkansas, and Louisiana State University, have established a collaborative regional hub for RD&D of clean hydrogen as a fuel and manufacturing feedstock. - Solar Turbines donated a 3.5-megawatt turbine engine to Colorado State University to support hydrogen combustion research at the CSU Energy Institute. - Penn State has developed a method to purify hydrogen from heavy carbon monoxide. - Stanford University launched a research initiative on hydrogen. - The National Fuel Cell Research Center at UC-Irvine set a record for hydrogen dispensed at the UC Irvine Hydrogen Fueling Station. - University of British Columbia is launching a research program on hydrogen fuel for transportation, with special emphasis on the hydrogen supply chain. - University of Alberta is developing a Hydrogen Roadmap for its province. |
Also:
- Stanford received a $1.1 billion gift from John and Ann Doerr to launch the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, the first new school at the university in 70 years.
- Stanford University now produces more renewable energy than it uses; the extra energy goes onto the California electric grid.
- The Berkeley Energy and Resources Collaborative (BERC) will host its annual Energy Summit on Monday, April 11th at UC Berkeley’s Pauley Ballroom. This is the largest student-led energy conference in the country.
- University of Hawaii researchers in the Chemistry Department are testing the "excitation" of water droplets to see if they can extract power that can be converted into electricity.
Evolution of wind turbine size and output:
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- On this date in history, March 29, 2022, wind was the second-largest source of US electricity generation (natural gas 31%; wind 19.1%; nuclear 19%; coal 17%; all other sources 14%).
- The Carbon Removal XPrize, by the numbers:
- 287: total number of teams that participated in the Carbon XPrize this year.
- 1,133: total number of teams that have qualified to compete for the 2025 grand prize.
- $50M: the grand prize for the winner in 2025; runner-ups will receive $30M.
- Note: There is still time to apply for the 2025 grand prize competition.
- Insert: a map of all 1,133 qualifying teams and the 60 semi-finalists.
The top-5 solar power producing cities in the US:
- Honolulu
- Las Vegas
- San Diego
- Albuquerque
- San Jose
Where are major solar and wind energy farms developing? Illinois has the most new solar projects in the pipeline:
I've noticed that various sustainable energy hopes go through a hype cycle. Here is a historic chart:
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