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THE PERFECT POLITICAL STORM: Part 1 - Decisions of the Supreme Court

     

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404          151            ?       64 
         12          222      1995           136           9       21
         19          201      1801           115           20      31
         26          217      1528          136           14      49
June   2          216       1413         130          10       31
          9          195      1526         148           24       24 
        15          305      1382         289           11       26 
         23         266      1650        346            ?          7 
         29         326      1608        294           39       19

Summary:  This pandemic is just not going away.
  • The USA was back into six-digits for new cases yesterday:  100,257.
  • But we are #3 to Germany with 132,671 and France at 124,724.
  • Note that on a new cases/million population basis:
    • Germany  1574
    • France  1902
    • USA  299
    • Italy  1576
    • Greece  1565
    • Australia 1489
    • New Zealand 1612
    • Taiwan  1758
    • Singapore 1592
    • South Korea  206
    • Japan  137
    • Hawaii  489
  • In the Americas, we seem reasonably okay (compared to last week):
    • USA  +5%
    • Canada +35%
    • Mexico  +65%
    • Honduras  +186%
  • Europe is still in bad shape, having increased in cases by 43% during the past week.
  • Asia actually dropped 6% during the past week.
    • Singapore  +62%
    • Hong Kong +44%
    • Japan  +11%
    • Thailand  +8%
    • South Korea  +3%
    • Taiwan  -21%
    • Planning on a trip to the Orient?  
      • So far, only tour groups can visit Japan.  Japan Times reports that there is anticipation of opening up soon, and there might even be a "revenge tourist" mentality once this occurs.
      • For South Korea, you need to be up to date with vaccination.  Not much said about boosters.
      • Travel to Hong Kong and China not advised today.
      • Thailand remains generally open if vaccinated, but visas are required from some countries.
      • Singapore is open, but remains iffy on actual entering policy,
      • Australia allowed tourist travel from February, and the country is still generally open, except for several local restrictions.
      • New Zealand does not allow tourists today.
Well, the Supreme Court announced two more judgements, plus welcomed Ketanji Jackson as their newest associate justice today, then shut down until October 3.
  • Voted 6-3 on West Virgina et al v. the EPA to limit the EPA authority to set climate standards for power plants.  This will significant rile up environmentalists and much of the white urban community.
  • How many of you knew that the Administrator of the EPA is Michael Regan, like Ketanji Jackson, the first Black person to serve in those roles?
  • They voted 5-4 (Kavanaugh and Roberts voted with the liberals) to allow President Biden more flexibility in dealing with immigrants from the south.  
For those who missed The Perfect Storm, the 1997 book by Sebastian Junger about the shipwreck of the Andrea Gail in 1991, leading to the 2000 film starring George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg, on 30 October 1991 there was a conjunction of:
  • Hurricane Grace.
  • A massive low pressure system.
  • Causing up to 100 foot waves.
  • Sinking the 70-foot Andrea Gail.
I thought it was an eventful film, but Rotten Tomatoes only gave it 47/63 ratings.

The point about a Perfect Political Storm is that in just one week, the combination of Supreme Court rulings and the focus of the House January 6 Committee hearing flipped the usual scenario of the party out of power clouting the ruling party in the midterm election.  So instead of Republicans re-gaining control over both houses of Congress, Democrats find themselves in a perfect political storm to not only retain control over Congress, but increase their numbers and significantly affect state elections in their favor.  In one fateful week, circumstances have shifted 10% to 20% of votes toward Democratic candidates.
  • Abortion and Women's Rights
    • Also a 14th amendment issue, but this one taking back a woman's right to abortion.
  • Immigration is also linked to the 14th amendment.
  • Green Rights
To the above, you can add the House January 6 Committee hearings, which loom to lead the Department of Justice to convicting former President Donald Trump for attempting a coup.  Of course, Democrats don't want to throw Trump in jail this year.  The judicial process could well extend into 2023, with the peak only occurring in the September-October period when voters get most influence by the reality of the Trump effect, which I will detail tomorrow.
What will happen on November 8 is simple:
  • First of all, you won't change the minds of most Trump advocates and die-hard Republicans.  They watch the Fox News Channel and will merrily march to the poll, almost expecting to win.
  • What the above will influence are:
    • 2% of Republicans and 5% of independents pissed off about that gun rights issue to switch their vote from a Republican to a Democrat.
    • 5% of Republicans and 10% of Independents really ticked off about Rowe v. Wade so that the Congress can pass some abortion legislation to return this form of women's rights.  Or maybe fiddle with the filibuster rule to add two more associate justices.
    • 10% of Hispanics who now feel better about immigration, which historically has been supported by Democrats.
    • 5% of Republicans and 10% of Independents concerned about global climate warming to more seriously think about voting for a Democrat over a Republican.
    • 5% of Republicans and 10% of Independents who are patriotic with high morals to vote against any Trump-supported candidate.  The Trump more fumes and insults, the more Democrats will get elected.  Just look at the Georgia run-off for the U.S. Senate.
  • Of course you can't add those numbers up, for some, if not many, happen to support some or all of those categories.  However, most elections are won by less than 10% of the votes cast.  All Democrats need is for 5-10% of Republicans/Independents to either not vote or vote for a Democrat over a Republican.
I'm showing the following today to help me lose weight.  I am served too many cucumbers every day where I live.  I'm getting tired of them.  But eating more can help control my weight.  So for me:


Tropical Cyclone Two still in the Caribbean will cross into the Pacific Ocean and could well become a hurricane:

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