Before I go into my Wednesday science topic, one note about COVID-19. Of course, with so many tests now taken at home and not reported, surely the 100,000 or so new cases/day in the U.S. must be higher. Here is one estimate by the University Columbia's Jeffrey Shaman:
Shaman's research group turned to using models to estimate the "ascertainment rate" — the portion of real infections that were being captured in official case counts. That rate has fluctuated — at the end of 2020, they estimated one in four cases were being counted. During the omicron surge it was closer to one in six.
Now with the widespread availability of at-home rapid tests that aren't reported to health departments, Shaman thinks the true number of cases may be in the ballpark of eight times higher than case counts. In other words, instead of 100,000 new cases a day, the true number may be 800,000 cases per day.
- So many have by now been infected that when you add those vaccinated and boosted, we have probably reached the almost mythical herd immunity level.
- Who knows or really cares exactly what that number is, but, yes, herd immunity against COVID-19 deaths is upon us. With all those cases, relative few are today dying.
- For example, we averaged 74,000 new case/day the past week.
- Using the 8 multiplier shown above, the daily new cases would then be about 600,000. The new deaths in this same period averaged around 250/day.
- Or the mortality rate is 0.04%.
- About the seasonal flu.
- Clearly, all this caution is suppressing the incidence of the flu.
- However, over the past decade a reasonable average is 35 million flu cases and 50,000 deaths/year.
- Thus, the mortality rate for the seasonal flu is 0.14%.
- Wait a minute, how can the flu have a mortality rate 3.5 times higher than COVID?
- Maybe the 600,000 cases/day as I just calculated is an exaggeration.
- To equal the mortality rate of the flu, using 250 deaths/day, the number of new cases/day would need to be 180,000, not the projected 600,000.
- Or, those 74,000 new cases/day we have been averaging this past week, needs only to be multiplied by around 2.5 to reach 180,000/day by including those home-tested positive tests, which is not unreasonable.
- Thus, is it possible that COVID-19 now already has a mortality rate LOWER or about equal, to the seasonal flu?
- If this is true...then the pandemic can be declared over.
- Will the World Health Organization come to this conclusion? Sure, but maybe a month or two or more from now.
However, and I will cover this transition in this series, mammals thus began to develop, leading to Homo sapiens. Worst day for Earth, maybe, but really good day for us.
Actually there was a more serious cataclysm 252 million years ago called the Permian-Triassic extinction event when a gigantic plume of magma exuded near the top of the then supercontinent Pangaea (about where Siberia is now found), covering the area of about the continental U.S. states with two-thirds of a mile deep lava. This so called Great Dying was exacerbated by emissions from various volcanos.
- Carbon dioxide and methane caused global warming.
- Release of methane hydrates led me to the future reality of The Venus Syndrome.
- Acid rain fell.
- Acidifying the oceans, killing almost everything.
- Forest fires wiped out most plants, which disappeared for 10 million years.
- Insects especially were killed off.
- Fungus spread.
- Dinosaurs began to subsequently develop.
There have actually been five extinction events:
- Ordovician-silurian 440 million years ago
- Devonian 365 million years ago.
- Permian-triassic 252 million years ago.
- Triassic-jurassic 210 million years ago.
- Cretaceous-tertiary 66 million years ago.
To the above you can add a sixth, referred to as the Holocene or Anthropocene extinction event, being caused by us Homo sapiens. We seem to be responsible for the extinction of species 100 to 1000 times higher than normal.
I'd like to toss in another event that should rank as #1.
- Earth is now 4.54 billion years old.
- Our Moon is 4.51 billion years old.
- The prevailing theory is a very large object, perhaps another planet the size of Mars named Theia, smashed into Earth, ejecting particles that over time became our moon.
- This collision involved 100 million times more energy than that dinosaur killer 66 million years ago.
- Samples brought back by astronauts showed that, in terms of composition, Earth and Moon are twins.
- There are many more suppositions, of course.
- In any case, there might not have been Planet Earth itself if the collision terminated our globe, so this surely must be #1. On the hand, the History Channel only picks this event as #7. Watch this and the other six so selected. #1, incidentally, has not yet happened. What will it be? Well, you need to watch that program.
However, too, as that 66 million years ago extinction of dinosaurs paved the way for mammals, it is entirely possible that without our Moon, life might not have formed on Earth. The Moon provided stability leading to life. Read this.- So again, my mention of the worst hit on Planet Earth, actually led to humans, meaning what is bad for our globe might best for us.
In my life, many of the worst experiences generally have led to monumental changes improving my status, eventually leading to what I am today. Like Planet Earth more than 4.5 billion years old, my healthy aged presence today in a comfortable cocoon can be attributed to surviving these disasters. Maybe this pandemic can yet provide one more blessing.
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