DURING THIS DELTA VARIANT SURGE, IS IT SAFE TO TRAVEL TODAY?

 

 The final Tokyo Olympics medals standings showed the following:

                              GOLD     Total   Medals/million population

• USA                39          113          0.35
• China              38           88         0.06
• Japan              27            58         0.98
• Russa             20            71           0.49
• Australia                        36           2.1
• New Zealand                 20           4.1
• Jamaica                          9            3.1
• San Marino                    3         88.6

Entering Sunday, the U.S. had two fewer golds than China.  However, women made the difference:

• The USA women did well.
• Won the gold for basketball.
• Won the gold for volleyball.
• Plus, Great Britains's Lauren Price beat China's Li Qian in women's middleweight boxing.

Among the downers, though:

• For the first time since 1980 when the USA boycotted the Moscow Olympics, the U.S. men's track team failed to win even one individual gold medal.
• We failed to beat the record of China, which got 48 gold medals in their 2008 Olympics.
• The mental anguish of Naomi Osaka and Simone Biles.

From the OZY Presidential Daily Brief this morning:

 In Transit: Singapore Loses World’s Best         Airport Status

Have you missed the duty-free shopping and expensive coffee at international airports during the pandemic? If you’re looking for some terminal time soon, try the best one in the world — in Doha. Hamad International Airport in the Gulf city just overtook Singapore’s Changi as the best after the southeast Asian city-state’s long run at the top. Tokyo Haneda Airport came second in Skytrax’s annual ranking, pushing Changi to third. In North America, Vancouver International Airport came out on top. Travelers on Doha’s Qatar Airlines, who have a connection at Hamad airport, can enjoy free city tours depending on length of layover. (Sources: CNN, Skytrax)

I went once to Qatar, and don't much remember their airport.  In the right column, though, is one of my postings from that trip--THE WONDER OF QATAR--which still ranks #1 as the most seen in my blog.

About airports, here were the busiest in 2019, the latest year with normalcy:

• Atlanta (110,531,300) United States
• Beijing (100,011,000) China
• Los Angeles (88,068,013) United States
• Dubai (86,396,575) United Arab Emirates
• Tokyo (85,505,054) Japan
• Chicago O’hare (84,397,776) United States
• London Heathrow (80,844,310) United Kingdom
• Shanghai Pudong (76,153,500) China
• Paris (76,150,007) France
• Dallas/Fort Worth (75,066,956) United States

If you've tried to keep up with Florida and their cruise wars, it has been a tennis match.  Yesterday a federal judge in Florida allowed Norwegian Cruise Line to require passengers to prove they've been inoculated against COVID-19, despite a state ban that prohibits companies from adopting such measures.  Norwegian is one week away from its first cruise since the pandemic began, and cheered the judgement.  Their departure will be in the safest way possible, with 100% vaccination of all guests and crew.

Speaking of Florida, last week Dick Farrel, a former right-wing host and anchor on Newsmax TV, died of complications from COVID-19.  He was known as the other Rush Limbaugh, and was a vocal advocate against vaccination.  He called Anthony Fauci a "lying freak."  The Phil Valentine listed to the right was on a ventilator earlier this month battling COVID-19.  There is a popular term in Hawaii for these types of folly:  bachi, or divine punishment.

So is it safe to travel today with the Delta variant surging?  Yes it you're fully vaccinated.  Absolutely no if you're not.  Many of them do travel, but they are only infecting others who have avoided the vaccines, or getting sick themselves.  But there is still a 5%+ chance that a vaccinated person can contract COVID-19.  This is just a judgement call that you make in life every day.  You determine what you want to do.  The positive factor is that if you get infected with vaccination, the ailment will not be too severe and  you will almost surely live.

Vaccinated and still worried about COVID-19?  Compared to what?

• Wow, this is more dangerous than I thought, but there is "only" one chance in 107 of dying in a car crash on your next drive.
• This means that if you drive just six times, that would be the equivalent of actually being infected by this virus if you are vaccinated.  But you will drive a hundred times this year.  Something is wrong here.  Driving can't be that dangerous.
• Yet, here is an article that says that if you lived in Michigan, you had a higher chance of dying in a car accident than from COVID-19.
• In the U.S. there are 13.5 million car crashes/year.
• 3.1 million result in medical treatment.
• 36,000 crashes result in at least one death.
• Another way of looking at this is that in 2019 39,000 in the U.S. died of a car accident, while 4.5 million sustained injuries.  Injuries cost the economy $7.5 billion in missed work, with $463 billion in medical expenses.
• A 19-year old driver has double the risk of a 65-year old driver.
• But the risk rises if you're older than 75.
• Men are three times more likely to die than females.
• Driver behavior causes 94% of car crashes.
• As your speed increases by 1%, your risk of a fatal cfrah increases by 4%.
• Over 30% of drivers killed in single-car crashes had drugs of alcohol in their system.
• Avoid driving Saturday night.
• However, note that the three causes of preventable deaths are car accident, opiod overdose and falling.  It's scary, but the odds of dying from drugs is 1 in 92, while it is 1 in 106 from falling.  The older you are, the more you are prone to falls.
• Also the odds of a pedestrian accident are five times lower than a car accident.  Yet, I worry about walking around, for there are dangerous-looking homeless people, dogs, and the need to cross streets.  Also, too, falling, so I generally use a walking cane, which protects me from all those factors,.
• That 1 in 107 about dying in a car crash compares with 1 in 188,364 for a plane passenger and 1 in 1117 by drowning.  Thus, it's 1760 times safer to fly than drive, and ten times safer to go for a swim.
• Over a lifetime, the odds of dying in a plane crash is 1 in 5,000, compared to 1 in 83 for a vehicular fatality.  
• But here is the thing...the odds of dying on a train trip are 1 in 243,756 and cruise, 1 in 6,250,000.  
• MY AROUND WORLD ADVENTURES IN THE PAST USED PLANES AND TRAINS.  In January of 2022, my next around the world trip will be a 111-day cruise.  But, then ,what about the Delta variant?
• Most definitely, don't drive around the world.  
• And you still need to be careful about not falling on a cruise.  
• While not exactly a drug, we do each have a limit of 15 alcoholic drinks each per day over the 111-day period of the cruise.  This considerably worries me.
• After all that, you still shouldn't fear riding in a car, for people more readily die from other causes:

So if you want to live as long as possible, stay in bed with a catheter so you can't fall and never find yourself in a vehicle.  But of course, this is not realistic, and why live if you're only doing nothing.

Well, most Americans have had it with the pandemic, and there is an itch to travel this Fall.  According to AmEx Trendex, 63% of consumers want to be more intentional with their paid time off this fall and use it for vacations.  According to Conde' Nast:

• Travel deals are fast-disappearing.
• The interest is especially in outdoor destinations for space and privacy.  That is, national sparks will be swarming for the Fall colors.
• Amtrak is offering up to 50% off its Saver Fares, with flexible cancellation options.  Trains are also well-used to watch those colors.

CruiseCritic says:

• Pent-up demand has led to a huge surge in bookings for 2022 and 2023.
• Oceania's world cruise for 2023 sold out within one day of opening...and that was on 27January2021.
• Uniworld, a river cruise operator, has seen a 425% increase in bookings to exotic destinations like India, Vietnam and Egypt.  This is me speaking:  Sure, but compared to when?  India will remain dangerous through next year and Vietnam is among those countries of the Orient now in their worst COVID-19 wave ever.  Egypt?  Who wants to go there?  It's dangerous also for other reasons.

Many countries are removing cruise arrival bans.  However, many of them just keep adding on another three months, and there is no surety of when, for example, Australia will allow ships with passengers.  The current deadline extends into September.  With the Delta variant, don't be surprised if this ban is extended to the end of the year.  My around the world cruise from January has goes there.  We show stops in New Zealand beginning in early February and Australia by mid-month.

All this uncertainty, with the possible addition to the full-vaccination requirement, means that the deadline for paying off the full amount in a month will, I feel more certain now, result in a wholesale dropout rate, meaning that if we stick to going, cabins in the mini-suite area will become available at attractive prices.  For those thinking of joining us on the Island Princess, leaving Los Angeles on January 19, have your travel agent check around September 10, and certainly on September 22, the day after the full 100% rate need to be paid.

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