THE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19

Variations in cells result in evolution.  For humans, gene mutations can cause cancer, but might also have beneficial long-term implications.  COVID-19 has been particularly nasty because of mutations, which are called variants.

A relatively new term, R-naught, or RO, is more and more being mentioned.  The information below was sent to me with no reference.  It looks generally accurate, but I found a second source, VOX, which provides some additional details:

• 
  In short, RO is the number of additional cases caused by an individual so infected. 
• The original COVID-19 virus had an R0 of 2 or 3, so the 2.7 indicated below is just more specific.
• VOX indicates that the Delta variant has an RO of 4, but the below quote says 5.7.
• Measles has an RO of 12.
• Will future mutations make COVID-19 even worse?  The answer:  no one knows.

R naught: the Delta Virus has an R naught of 5.7 versus 2.7 for the original. R naught of other infectious diseases -

· 1918 Influenza Pandemic that killed 50 million people worldwide = 1.4 to 2.8

· Ebola = 1.8

· Smallpox = 3.5 to 6.0

· Polio = 5.0 to 7.0

With these factors of high R naught, additional spread by vaccinated individuals and high viral load, herd immunity will be very difficult to achieve. We would now need our population to be 92% fully vaccinated to get there. Covid-19 will be with us for a long time.

Brace yourself, it could get worse. The delta variant increases exposure and transmission. There could be a “Gamma” variant that could increase mortality in the unvaccinated, especially in babies and children.

Let me make this sound even worse by reporting that there is also a Lambda variant, which MIGHT BE RESISTANT TO CURRENT VACCINES.  Came from Peru.  Delta originated in India and Gamma in Brazil.  

In short, China started the original, and the first variant was Alpha from the UK.  The U.S. became the worst country in cases/deaths, but, apparently spawned no new variant.  South Africa then snuck in with the Beta variant.  India overtook the U.S. and introduced the Delta variant.  Then came Brazil, with the possibly to be feared Gamma, hopefully not to be worsened by the Peruvian Lambda.  Here is an article that provides more details.

Yesterday, India led with 40,784 new cases, followed by Iran with 32,511 and Indonesia with 30,738.  Then followed by #4 UK 24,381, #5 Russia 22,804, #6 USA 21,768 and #7 Brazil 20,503.  Will variants come from Iran, Indonesia and Russia?  

Interestingly enough, #1 for new deaths yesterday was Indonesia with 1604 and #2 Russia with 789.  The U.S. was not even in the top 10 with 64 new deaths.  But that was a Sunday, which is always underreported.  

The World had 484,762 new cases and 7400 new deaths.  The mortality rate (deaths divided by cases) currently is 2%, which will probably end up being less than 1% when all the asymptomatic cases are eventually counted.  The problem is that no one really knows what the asymptomatic rate is, which could be as low as 30%, but maybe even as high as 80%.    I saw one study which indicated that 75% of seasonal flu cases were asymptomatic.  In any case, the CDC has reported that 59% of all cases were transmitted by asymptomatic cases.

Should we have prepared better for variants?  Probably, for the 1918-20 Spanish Flu Pandemic, had three waves.  Lung samples of deaths were kept and recently re-studied, showing that the second wave showed a variant that was responsible for 80% of all deaths, and, possibly a third wave caused by another variant.

Keep in mind that the Pandemic of a century ago killed 50 million (with estimates as low as 17.4 million, but  possibly up to 100 million) people when the world population was only 1.8 billion, or about a quarter of what it is today.  So the death rate was between 1% and 5.4%.  Today, COVID-19 is at 0.055%.  Even if the total deaths double into next year, this current pandemic would have a kill rate a tenth of what happened a century ago.

Finally, this is the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus.  

• All the other five previous ones in modern history since 1918 were the result of HxNy influenza A and B viruses.   
• There are also influenza C viruses that only causes a mild reaction, and influenza D, which affects cattle. 
• Keep in mind, though, that the MERS and SARS outbreaks, both traced to bats--as is suspected of COVID-19--were also a strains of a coronavirus.  
• These influenza HN types tend to come from birds and pigs.
• Both the coronavirus and influenza virus have the same spherical shape, populated by what looks suspiciously like golf tees.

Here is a final comparison (the influenza virus, also, of course causes the seasonal flu):

About the Tokyo Summer Olympics:

• Canada beat the U.S. women's soccer team, 1-0, so we are out of the Olympics.
• Simone Biles will compete in the final balance beam competition tomorrow.

• 
  Poland will give 24-year old Belarus sprinter Krystina Timanovskaya a visa.  
• Her husband has already left the country, is in the Ukraine, and will fly to Poland.  
• Poland will support her into the future.
• I've posted several times on the corrupt government of Alexander Lukashenko, who has been president since 1994.  He is known as The Cockroach.

• 
  As of Sunday night, China had the most gold medals with 29 to 22 for the USA.  However, the U.S. still leads with 64 total medals to China's 62.  The Russian Olympics Committee has 50.
• Final ceremonies will be televised by NBC from 7AM EDT on Sunday, August 8.  This will be repeated at 7:30PM.

The 2022 Winter Olympics will be held this coming February 4-22 in Beijing, while the next Summer Olympics will occur in Paris from July 26 to August 11, 2024.

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