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CEASEFIRE IN THE GAZA STRIP and ENERGY MATTERS OF 2024

The big news of the day is that a ceasefire has been reached in the Gaza Strip Israel-Hamas War, with hostages to be exchanged and mass aid to be initiated on January 19.  That will be phase one.  Further negotiations into phases two and three are in the agreement for an end to this war, including all hostages and remains and other matters.  Someone named Trump will not be happy with that specific date, but his administration will need to handle the next two phases.  

All still remains fragile and the next two steps will be difficult, but this time, the peace announcement by Qatar, Egypt and the USA looks real, bringing an end to the 467 days war.  With the skirmish in Lebanon between Israel and the Hezbollah looking settled, Iran significantly weakened, things falling into place in Syria with the departure of  Bashar Al Assad, AND NO MAJOR CONFLICT EXPANSION IN THE MIDDLE LOOMING, the region for the first time in a long time seems secure.

Also today, Senate committees are questioning six of Trump's top cabinet appointees.  Like Pete Hegseth for Defense, they will all be sent on to the Senate floor for confirmation.  Shakier candidates RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard will come next week.  In short, most of them, if not all, will make it, but if not, no problem, there is a big pot of alternates who will be totally loyal to Donald Trump and his inner cronies.  As long as they understand that you can lie to the media, country and world, but stick with the administration, all will be well with the Trump White House.  Surely sounds like the beginning of a dictatorship to me.

Today, on this Wednesday of science and technology, I provide the Year 2024 in review from Energy Matters.
  • First, five years ago: 
Retrospective: the 5 hottest topics in energy 5 years ago.
 
  1. The US becomes the world's largest net-exporter of LNG. 
  2. China becomes the world's largest importer of LNG.
  3. President Trump submits notice to the United Nations that the US will formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement; meanwhile, Congress considers (and rejects) the Green New Deal.
  4. Impact investing (or "sustainable, responsible, and impact") has about $12 trillion in US assets under management.
  5. Intelligence agencies in the West find serious security vulnerabilities in several hundred Huawei energy-related devices and products.
  6. The White House invokes the Defense Production Act, classifying 17 obscure rare earth elements as "essential to the national defense."

Top energy stories in 2024.

  • January
  • Texas overtakes California for total generation of renewable energy (excluding hydropower).
  • The US achieves 100 new clean energy manufacturing facilities; Georgia has had the most activity of any US state.
  • Making clean hydrogen attracts more investment than managing CO2 emissions.
  • Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensifies (see also December).
  • February
  • The US is still the largest exporter of LNG in the world — by a large margin.
  • The share of US met-coal exports is increasing
  • Wind and solar energy are the fastest growing sources of power in the US, more so if paired with battery storage.
  • Hydropower in the US is at full capacity, especially in the Pacific Northwest.
  • The world achieves the greatest decoupling rate in industrial history (GDP growth and declining emissions).
  • The most global property damage by extreme weather.
  • March
  • EV sales are beginning to decline; lithium prices are falling.
  • Texas had its largest wildfire in its history.
  • China does not achieve its main climate goals (decoupling).
  • Congress passes its FY24 spending bills. The biggest winner: nuclear energy (including $1.69 billion for R&D); the biggest loser: the EPA ($1 billion cut).
  • April
  • During the eclipse on April 8, the loss of solar generated power equaled the percentage of the sun's coverage.
  • US crude oil exports set another record.
  • The rise of AI and data centers is causing a grid/supply crisis.
  • American Energy Society was selected to run the Coastside Venture Studio.
  • May
  • One of the largest copper mines in the world is dormant.
  • Geopolitical volatility in the Middle East leads to record production from non-OPEC producers in the Americas.
  • The 5 countries with the cleanest grids all rely on hydropower.
  • Heavy industry is now the top source of global CO2 emissions.
  • June
  • Battery storage capacity has quadrupled in the last four years.
  • The story is that there is no story: the O&G sector remains unusually stable (~$83/barrel). 
  • The US Supreme Court overturns the "Chevron Deference."
  • July
  • Prices for base metals are declining — depressed by high global inventories and soft demand in China.
  • Hurricane Beryl, the first Atlantic hurricane of the year to strike the US, makes landfall.
  • July 22, 2024, was the hottest global daily temperature on record; July 21 and 23 were the 3rd and 2nd hottest.
  • On July 9, US power plant operators generated 6.9 MWh of electricity from natural gas, probably the most in history.
  • August
  • The US BOEM approves US Wind, a proposed 2.2 GW Maryland offshore wind farm.
  • Revenues have increased by 12% for all utilities in high-density data center regions (#1 Virginia, #2 Texas, #3 Illinois).
  • China's manufacturing imbalances are affecting global markets (steel, solar panels, petrochemicals, EVs...).
  • A vast majority of DOE financial support for small- and mid-sized auto part manufacturers is going to purple states.
  • Hurricane Debby made landfall on August 5.
  • September
  • Virginia is building the most data centers in the US (and the grid is strained).
  • Offshore Guyana-Suriname Basin is oil's new hotspot; the North Sea is the hottest gas hotspot in the world.
  • Wind contract prices (PPAs) are at their highest since 2018 (from less than $20/MWh to more than $40/MWh). 
  • Methane emissions are increasing faster than any other greenhouse gas.
  • October
  • Hurricane Milton is exceptional for its wind and flooding.
  • In the US, off-grid batteries paired with rooftop solar is growing, but rooftop solar alone is slowing.
  • Pollution is declining in China but increasing in all other South Asian countries.
  • The long rally in industrial metals continues; Big Tech is leading a nuclear renaissance. 
  • Only 3 of 7 hydrogen hubs have advanced to the 1st stage.
  • There is a "broken EV" pandemic.
  • November
  • Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
  • The President-elect selects Chris Wright to serve as Secretary of Energy; the incoming administration states that "energy dominance" is its primary America-first policy agenda.
  • December
  • The Assad regime falls in Syria; geopolitical turmoil returns in the Middle East (see January).
  • Most of the crude oil imported by China now comes from Saudi Arabia.

Retrospective - words of the year:

2023:  energy security

2022:  coercion

2021:  vulnerable

2020:  crisis (pandemics and fires)

I would choose for 2025.....Trump.  He will drastically change the priorities of the USA, to the perilous detriment of the world, including the U.S.  Amen.

I hope I'm wrong.

-  

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