From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):
DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa
June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82
July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572
Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130
Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82
Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85
Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118
Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465
Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712
Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398
Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194
April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37
May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59
June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95
July 7 251 8440 1595 817 411
Aug 4 656 10120 1118 532 423
Sept 22 2228 9326 839 279 124
29 2190 8859 643 309 108
Oct 6 2102 8255 543 315 59
19 2005 7528 401 160 80
27 1594 8671 433 734 62
Nov 3 1436 7830 186 458 23
24 1594 8270 176 396 22
Dec 1 1633 8475 266 477 28
8 1324 7894 231 159 36
17 1653 7359 126 289 35
22 1634 7686 137 434 99
23 1149 6942 100 374 75
29 1777 7393 147 268 81
30 1354 6758 154 220 126
Jan 7 2025 6729 148 285 140
12 2283 8425 138 380 181
13 1969 7704 190 315 159
Summary:
- Of course the USA leads in new deaths, with Russia #2 having had 740 and Poland #3 with 480.
- In new deaths/million population: U.S. 5.9, Russia 5.1 and Poland 12.7
- In new cases/million (this is the ranking of actual new cases in the world):
- U.S. 2415
- California 2824
- Missouri 569
- Arkansas 4330
- Rhode Island 5349
- Hawaii 2423
- France 4661
- India 186 (but this is almost surely a huge undercount)
- Italy 3062
- Spain 3401
- Australia 5922!!! (they were doing well for so long)
- New Zealand 8
- China 0.1
- They believe in zero tolerance.
- Three cities with a total population of 20 million are now still locked down.
- I suspect their special caution is due to the Beijing Winter Olympics, to begin on February 4.
- Japan 97 (with 12,243 new cases):
- But this was 54 yesterday.
- Watch how fast this shoots up over the next three weeks.
- The World Bank has already predicted new cases exceeding 400,000 in March, but I think it will be quicker, and perhaps not reach that number.
You would think something a little more light hearted heading into the weekend. Oh well. If nothing unforeseen happens, yes, I think the Republican Party will implode and fracture this year. Why? First some history:
- After the 2002 midterm elections, in which Republicans defied history and added to their House majority, excited GOP figures began speaking of a “permanent majority,” or at least one that would last a generation.
- Instead President George W. Bush lost, then Barack Obama won two terms. The GOP might be finished permanently, liberal pundits hoped—especially since they expected the imminent arrival of an “emerging Democratic majority” that would deprive Republicans of voting majorities for the foreseeable future.
- Then, the Democrats got shellacked in the 2010 midterms, and Donald Trump rode into power in 2016.
- The Whigs, Federalists and Democratic-Republican Parties are the only ones to go extinct. Instead: The Democratic and the Republican Parties have endured as long as they have because they have significantly altered their identities to remain viable; in a sense, each has come to represent what it once reviled.
- Wait a minute, what Democratic-Republican Party? Well, it was also known as the Jeffersonian Republican Party, forming in in 1792 and replaced in 1834 by what we have today, the Democratic and Republican Parties. Learn something every day in this blog site.
- Each party once had a spectrum of liberal and conservative wings. Not anymore, for Republicans now are conservative and Democrats liberal and ultra-liberal.
Actually, we now have three "parties" in America. From Gallup:
Forgot how to read graphs? This one says that the USA a year ago had 44% Independents, 30% Democrats and 25% Republicans. Independents made the difference between 2016 and 2020:
Last month John Zogby Strategies found that of the Independents, 45% are inclined to be Republican, 27 Democrat and 28% undecided. That 45%, combined with many of the 28%, will determine who will win the mid-term elections in November.
- Rounds told ABC News on Sunday that the 2020 presidential election was "as fair as we have seen."
- Donald Trump quickly reacted by calling Rounds a RINO (Republican in name only), that he just went woke, and asked if the senator was crazy or just stupid. Standard Trump.
- Rounds counterpunched with:
...if we’re being honest, there was no evidence of widespread fraud that would have altered the results of the election. As a Republican Party, our focus should be on what lies ahead, not what’s in the past. Elections are about growing support for your party, not further dividing it. Attacking Republicans certainly isn’t going to result in a winning formula. Neither is telling citizens not to vote. If we are going to win in 2022 and 2024, we have to move forward together.
Almost everything happening today leads me to believe that the Democrats will draw more independents to them:
- The Supreme Court will not quite abolish Wade vs Rowe, but will heavily side with the anti-abortion decisions of states. This will push Independents to vote Democratically to change the Supreme Court current majority of too many conservatives.
- Congress will probably not pass voting rights legislation, and the unpatriotic actions of Republican-controlled state legislatures will piss off many Independents who desire to be right and moral.
- The combination of Donald Trump's Big Lie about the 2020 presidential election and his role in the January 6 riot will turn off a sufficient number of Independents to lean in the Democratic direction.
- Further, even solid Republicans will be dismayed by how far the party has strayed, so they will just not bother to vote.
- Then there will be the killing Trump effect in the House races. Note how he scared Georgia into sending two Democratic candidates to the Senate in the special runoff elections.
- The party in power loses an average of 30 seats in House and Senate in an off-year election, only twice since 1934 has the president power gained seats in Congress on both sides.
- Democrats only have a 9 vote majority in the House, and it is 50-50 in the current Senate.
- As recently as 2010, Democrats lost 69 seats: 63 in the House and 6 in the Senate.
- However, I think this year will be different:
- There is a sufficient number of issues that will bring Democrats to the polls.
- There is usually not enough anger votes. What the Republicans have done since the 2020 presidentials has been abominable.
- Much more can be added here.
- Trump will support those who bow to him and scare off Republicans who want to be honest and right.
- In the primary, a few Republican incumbents who have strayed too far from Trump will incur the opposition of a Trump loyalist, leading to one of them having to face a Democrat in the general election. Just a few percentage points of Republicans who are on the losing side of the primary will give more Democrats a victory, especially in the House. The losing Republican candidate supporter might not vote for a Democrat, but could well not vote at all.
- In 2022, there will be 14 Democrat and 20 Republican seats up for election. At this time only one Democratic has chosen not to run, but 5 Republicans. Incumbents almost alway win. In an off-year election, the Democrats will in 2022 surely improve their position, making Manchin and Sinema unnecessary.
So will the Republican Party disappear after this year? Of course not. An embarrassing debacle will re-orient the party. Dysfunctional elements will gravitate into the realm of Independents for a while. Visionary new leaders will draw from that group to strengthen he next Republican order.
Mine is pure gut feeling. Want a more pedantic and credible view? From The Atlantic: The Republican Party is Now in Its End Stages. And, The Republican Party Isn't Going Anywhere.
What about the 2024 presidential election? The logical shift for the Republican Party will be towards what it once previously was. Can't imagine Trump running as their top choice. Could well be someone like Mitt Romney. Certainly not Ron DeSantis. Perhaps Nikki Haley or even Mike Pence. How Pence does in that House January 6 probe could be the difference-maker for him.
And speaking of the 2024 presidential race, the Republicans will pull out of the debates. They were equal partners in forming the commission that manages this event, but feel that the process helps Democrats more. So what will happen? There is enough time for some kind of compromise to be reached. But complaining about everything can only hurt your image.
Enough of politics. I once had fantasy teams in baseball, football, basketball and golf. I'm now down to only Major League Baseball and the National Football League. Historically, I do well in baseball and am abominable in football. This has mostly to do with only adjusting your team weekly for football over 16 weeks and daily for baseball for six months. After the team draft, I have a lot more time to coach well in baseball. Well, for the first time in my life I this year won an ESPN NFL championship:
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What did I win? Pride. Having these fantasy teams is a small waste of time in football, but does make actually watching the game more meaningful.
- For example, Sunday was an incredible day for the NFL. It all came down to the final game of the year. If Keenan Allen, wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers scored 14 more points, I would have lost. He was in the final game with the Oakland Raiders, which agonizingly went into overtime.
- Also, the Raiders made the playoffs by winning the game. The Chargers missed because of the loss.
- People in Pittsburgh must have been especially anxious, for if that game had ended in an actual tie, both the Raiders and Chargers would have made the playoffs.
- But because they actually did not purposefully play for tie, with both making the playoffs, the Steelers did.
- You have no idea what I'm saying if you are not a fan. But if you want an explanation, click HERE.
As this is Friday, I'll end with these, starting with an egg, because I closed with two of them yesterday.
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