IS A UNIVERSAL COVID-19 VACCINE ON THE HORIZON?

      From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14         4142     15512       1151        189      712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar     2        1989     9490        1726       110      194

April   6         906     11787         4211       631       37

May    4         853     13667         3025     3786     59 

June   1         287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July   7          251      8440        1595        817       411

Aug    4          656    10120        1118         532      423 

Sept  22       2228     9326          839        279      124

        29         2190      8859         643        309      108

Oct    6         2102       8255         543        315       59

        19          2005      7528         401       160        80 

        27          1594      8671         433        734        62 

Nov   3          1436      7830         186        458        23

        24          1594      8270         176        396        22 

Dec    1          1633      8475         266        477        28

          8          1324      7894         231        159         36

        17          1653      7359         126        289         35 

        22          1634      7686         137        434         99

        23          1149       6942        100        374         75

        29          1777       7393         147        268         81

        30         1354       6758          154        220       126 

Jan    7         2025       6729          148        285       140

       14          2303       7872          238        430       128

       19          2374       8972          349        493       156

       20          2700     9225          324        703       139 

       21           2777      9091          396        489       103

       26          3143   10,554          606        575         94 

       27          2689   10,261          662        627          71 

       28          2732   10,516           779        862       133

Summary:  Still not so good, but it was worse a year ago

National Geographic had a comprehensive summary of our current pandemic.  Here is a graphic of COVID-19 deaths.  Sort of three waves, or, four and maybe five, if you want to count the smaller ones.

Note that the middle wave of a year ago killed more people.

A particularly instructive article had to do with the development of a universal coronavirus vaccine:

• Since the advent of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in December of 2019, we have experienced a whole series of variants.
• The original vaccines were designed to handle the original COVID-19 virus.

Unfortunately for us, this pandemic virus has been incredibly facile at mutating variants:

• Alpha (B.11.7) first appeared in the UK in November of 2020 and became dominant.  Note that this was almost a year after the Wuhan discovery.
• This variant was 30-50% more contagious than the original.
• By April of 2021 Alpha comprised 66% of cases in the U.S.
• Alpha was deadlier than the original.
• Luckily, the vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson were effective in preventing severity and death.
• Beta (B.1.351) was first identified in South Africa at the end of 2020.
• Beta was 50% more contagious than the original.
• Led to a higher percentage of hospitalizations and deaths.
• None of the vaccines, especially the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, was highly efficient.
• Then came Delta (B.1.617.2) from India in late 2020.
• Delta caused twice as many infections as previous variants.
• In Connecticut, it was estimated that Delta was 80-90% more transmissible than Alpha.
• Thus there was another surge of cases in the fall of 2021, for the vaccines were weakening, and boosters began to become necessary.
• No question that Delta caused more severe symptoms than other variants, especially to people who aren't vaccinated.  The hospitalization risk for the unvaccinated was double that from Alpha.
• Delta caused breakthrough infections, that is, some who were fully vaccinated were infected.
• Delta itself had several offshoots, with AY.4.2 (this is not Delta Plus) tended to ignore vaccines and treatments.  
• This particular mutation was 10-20% more contagious than the original Delta, but was not any more lethal.
• Again, the unvaccinated had more severe symptoms.
• Interesting point is that AY.4.2 is not a variant, but is technically just an offshoot.
• Omicron (B.1.1.529) was identified in Botswana and South Africa in late November of 2021.
• Omicron has replaced Delta as the dominant strain.
• Is more transmissible than Delta.
• However, various reports vary quite a bit.
• Here is a You Tube report that says 70 times more contagious.
• Another says 3-5 times more transmissible.
• The one that seems to make the most sense is 105% more transmissible.  100% is double, or a factor of 2.
• Ignore the 70 times more, for that referred to how fast this virus spreads inside the body, not in person-to-person transmission.
• Is less severe than Delta.
• Again, not enough information yet to be definitive.
• But one study said 40% less likely to be hospitalized.
• Another said that an unvaccinated person is 10 times more likely to die compared to one who is vaccinated.
• More and more you see headlines indicated that 98-99% of COVID-19 deaths are unvaccinated.

Returning to that National Geographic article:

• There is confidence that a universal COVID-19 vaccine will be developed.
• Coronaviruses were first identified only in the mid-60's, and they all rarely caused severe disease.
• That changed in 2002 when a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) illness linked to bats in China infected 8096 around the world and killed 774.  This thus had a fatality rate of 10%.  The current rate for COVID-19 is 1.5%, although this figure will probably drop closer to 0.5% when all actual cases are eventually confirmed.  Known as the SARS outbreak (not pandemic), 20 years later, there is yet no vaccine for SARS.
• Then a decade later, another coronavirus, MERS-CoV emerged in Saudi Arabia (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), infecting 2547 in 37 countries, and killing 888.  Do the math, and the fatality rate is 35%.  This virus remains active, for there were 45 cases last year.  Somehow, bats are still blamed, and the virus was transferred to camels, then us.  There is NO VACCINE for this ailment.
• Current efforts focus on known sarbecoviruses that have potential to jump from animals to humans.
• Early tests on animal models show promise.
• Coming vaccines are mostly targeting the club-shaped spikes protruding from the virus' surface that facilitate entry into host cells.
• The furthest along is a vaccine being developed at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research.
• Tests on monkeys showed the ability to generate antibodies that block the entry of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 and major variants (except Omicron, which came too late for this effort).
• Already tested in humans in Phase I trial.
• Other universal coronavirus vaccine systems target the body's immune response to a foreign invader.
• Another looks at the S-protein receptor-binding domain.  Borrows technology developed for making universal flu vaccines.

Wow, that was a bit much, so I'll end with my endless quest to enhance meals here at 15 Craigside.  First, foie gras, truffle cheese, croissant, watercress salad and creamed spinach, with an assortment of drinks:

Then, soba (buckwheat) noodles and clam soup:

Last night I had a luau, featuring the addition of ogo (seaweed), sea asparagus, onions and chili sauce to some Marukai ahi poke.

But hey, this is Saturday, so what about some fancy karaoke singing by our world leaders?  Loved the efforts of Xi Jinping and Pope Francis.

-