WILL THE OMICRON VARIANT CATALYZE THE DECLINE OF THE REPUBLIC PARTY?

Before answering that question, I'll start with something really important.  How to use a N95 mask more than once.    I largely provided this information last week, but it doesn't hurt to repeat by indicating my variation to a Wirecutter article.

• Get seven small paper bags, each big enough to hold a N95 mask.  
• Write a different day of the week on the bags:  Sunday, Monday, etc.
• Place a N95 mask in each.
• Wear the mask of that day, and after doing so, place it back into that bag.
• This virus is supposed to die after three days of exposure.
• They say four days should be sufficient, so five is safer.  Seven might be more convenient for there are seven days in the week.  A typical box of N95 NIOSH masks holds 20.

A few other points:

• Moisture, especially from vigorous use working out in a gym could wet your mask.  This is why you use a paper bag because it breathes, unlike a ziplock bag.
• Place the paper bag near a dry sunny window.  But keep the sun from striking the bag.
• If you are caught in a rain and the bag gets drenched, throw it away.
• DON'T wash or rinse your mask to freshen it up.  You will damage the inner layers that absorb the virus.  Certainly don't use alcohol, bleach or disinfectant.  Some hospitals use hydrogen peroxide, but that is because they are equipped to do so.
• You can use dry heat, but only once or twice before they need to be tossed away.
• UV light works, but throw away after three uses.
• The CDC advisory says to discard a disposable N95 mask after five uses.
• This article said that if the mask looks clean with good airflow and wearable elastic bands to create a secure fit, perhaps even longer.
• Consider also where you wear it.  If all day on a subway, get rid of it sooner.
• If worn just to go grocery shopping, can last more than 5 times.
• Of course if you interact with a COVID-19-positive person, immediately throw away.

This will totally confuse you, but these are from the world-wide web today:

• Amazon.com seems to now again offer N95 masks for a little more than $1 each.  
• KN95 masks are okay, but consider that they mostly come from countries of the Orient, and, at one time (two weeks ago) the CDC said that 60% were counterfeit.  
• Then only this week the CDC reported that 60% of both N95 and KN95 masks on the market are counterfeit. One clue that N or K 95 masks are fake is that they tend to have ear loops and not headbands.  
• Also, if the N95 has decorative fabric, watch out.  
• No masks have been approved for children.  So if an ad says it is, nope.

• This is a life-or-death matter, so be careful.  The mask should have a NIOSH approval label.  But these show up only on N95 masks, and, well, what would prevent a company to just place that on.
• Likewise, avoid if you see NOSH, HOISH, NOISE, YOLO, etc.
• Search for the approval number on the NIOSH Certified Equipment List (CEL) or the NIOSH Trusted-Source web pages.
• When considering any potential N95 face mask, check the Counterfeit Respirators/Misrepresentation of NIOSH web page first. 
• Oh, I went to all three sites listed in those two closest bulleted slots, and I found them beyond my comprehension.

Two weeks ago I posted on WILL THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IMPLODE AND FRACTURE IN 2020?  To fully appreciate my posting today, I would recommend first reading that blog, plus my contributions on Monday and Tuesday.  To start:

This Axios-Ipsos poll provides new detail on American COVID mitigation behaviors.

1. 87% of Americans report wearing a mask, at least occasionally. Among those, the most popular types of masks are cloth (39%) or surgical (35%). Fewer than one in five (19%) of mask wearers most frequently wear the more effective respirator style (N95) mask.
2. 18% of Americans say they have tested positive for COVID at some point since the start of the pandemic. Among those, about two in five (39%) tested at an official test location, a similar number (38%) used a PCR test, and about one in eight (15%) used a home antigen test.
3. 36% of Americans say they have tested positive or think they’ve had COVID since the start of the pandemic. Among those, the majority report no symptoms (10%) or mild symptoms (46%). An additional quarter (28%) report moderate symptoms while one in eight (14%) report severe symptoms or hospitalization.

The Worldometer numbers indicate that 22% of those in the U.S. have suffered from COVID-19.  Comparing with the above percentages and doing the math, this suggests that the asymptomatic rate should be 64%.  This same poll also resulted in the following:

Also from this poll:  The majority (53%) of vaccinated Democrats who have not received a booster are more likely to because of the Omicron variant compared to a third (32%) of independents, and a fifth (21%) of Republicans.

Before Omicron, from this November tally of those vaccinated by counties:

• 40% for those who voted for Trump.
• 53% for those who voted for Biden.
• Unvaccinated Americans face a more than 18 times higher risk of being hospitalized with COVID-19 than those who are vaccinated.

Still before Omicron on December 17:

• 91% of Democrats have had at least one shot, only 60% Republicans.
• Trump counties:  250 COVID-19 deaths per million.
• Biden counties:  78 /million.
• With 4% the world population, the U.S. has 15% the COVID-19 deaths.

Yesterday, the New York Times reported that a whole lot more Republicans are dying from COVID-19 than Democrats.  But here is the reality:

• Less than 1 million Americans have died from COVID-19.
• The number who voted in the 2020 presidential election:  159 million.
• If all the deaths were Republican voters, that would only be 0.6% of total votes.
• So even if fewer Republicans get vaccinated, and more die, the actual percentages indicate that this factor will have little to no effect on the midterm election.
• In short, don't depend on the Omicron variant to insure for Democratic victories this coming November.
• Thus, to answer the title of this posting, a loud NO!

There is a subplot, though, that can hurt Republicans:  Donald Trump versus Mitch McConnell.  They are battling for party loyalty.  For example, McConnell is actively aiding Lisa Murkowski(R-Alaska), who voted to convict Trump of impeachment.

One factor that positively helps the Republican Party is the screwed up manner that the Biden Administration has handled schooling.  From the New York Times:

What this does is shift a lot of suburban white moms towards the party out of power, the Republicans.  Just something like this could make the difference in the 2022 and 2024 November elections.

The Spanish Flu did away with 675,000 Americans.  COVID-19 deaths are past 800,000 and should hit a million.  However, the population of the U.S. was only around 105 million a century ago.  The deaths/million from this 1920 H1N1 virus was 6429/million.  Today, it is only 2678/million.  So even if this rate more than doubles, and much than half are Republicans, that will still only be around 1% of voters.  Plus, the world pandemic of 2010/11 was also caused by the H1N1 virus, and only killed 37,000.

If a Black Death equivalent pandemic struck (the percentages indicate percentage of world population that succumbed--we are now up to 0.07% with COVID), with scientists quickly developing a vaccine, and should Republicans still shy away from being vaccinated, then the Republican Party would significantly decline.  The Black death was caused by Yersinia pestis, a bacterium.

The World population in 1300 was only 0.4 billion.  We today are approaching 8 billion.

As of January 25 only 40% of Americans have received a booster shot.  There are too many who took the full course and seem to be avoiding taking that crucial booster.  Why?

• Mixed messaging by the federal government.
• Many think that the Pfizer/Moderna two dosages and Johnson & Johnson one shot will prevent them from being hospitalized or die.  This is probably true, but not as well as if they got the booster.  They remain at a higher risk compared to the boosted.
• The Omicron variant is so contagious that those who have not received the booster can get infected and suffer worse than one who was boosted.  The difference is like comparing a bad flu with a mild cold. 
• If not vaccinated at all, you cannot travel or go out to eat or attend a theater or auditorium performance.  More importantly, you are in danger of dying.
• If you have been fully vaccinated but not boosted, you are in the transition zone, not quite free from pandemic status.
• If you are boosted, hallelujah, you have survived this pandemic.

Hallelujah!  Moonrise over Australia.

Hallelujah was written by Canadian Leonard Cohen in 1984.  Never did much for him.  Something about this song, though, for it has been covered by more than 300 singers and groups.  

Perhaps the most noted was by Jeff Buckley in 1994.  However, it only began to gain prominence in 2007 after he died.  His death at 30 was mysterious.  The popular Pentatonix version appeared in their 2016 Christmas album.

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