There has been one question about this Pandemic that has long been been troubling me. How many actual cases of COVID-19 have there been? Worldometer this morning said 315,382,956 total World cases (5,526,156 total deaths) and 1,359,838 in the USA (864,193 total deaths).
- In July of 2020 the MIT Management Sloan School thought that infections were 12 times higher and deaths 50% higher than reported!!! They indicated that the CDC corroborated their study. Also, if testing at a high rate occurred earlier, there would have been far fewer deaths. This was 18 months ago.
- On 6February2021 NPR reported that The Pandemic is 10 Times Worse Than You Think. Columbia University built a mathematical model, providing a hint of how many people are never counted because they never get tested.
- The conclusion is that on any given day, the actual number of active still infectious cases is likely 10 times higher than the day's official number of reported cases.
- Back in May of 2020 the rate of testing was so low that only 1 in 10 cases were reported. By early 2021 testing had improved to the point of only multiplying the reported cases by 4.
- However, there are also asymptomatic cases, and when you include them, a year ago, according to their model, instead of 91 out of every 100,000 testing positive that day, the number actually shedding the virus should be 998 per 100,000.
- Then came the Omicron variant late last year. So whatever you read or hear, going by this study, the number of actively contagious people in your neighborhood should be multiplied by at least 10, then in comparison to the Delta variant, multiply that sum by from 3 to 5 to increase the odds of you getting infected.
- In short, your chances of contracting COVID-19 is today in the range of 50 times higher, based on reported new cases for the day, than it was a year ago!!!
- According to this report, a year ago 36% of Americans were infected, not 8%:
- North Dakota 52%
- Illinois 48%
- New York 46%
- Vermont 11%
- Hawaii 3%
- Hawaii was doing well at a 10% positivity rate until a couple of weeks ago when we broke our all time high for new cases, and now regularly top it.
- Our positivity rate jumped to 20% and today was up to 25%.
- The seven-day average is 3707 cases, which is 2648/million population.
- The U.S. yesterday had 677,799 new cases, or is at 2029/million.
- However, France is at 5620/million, while Japan is at 50.7.
- Deaths have been very low in Hawaii, but 5 (rate of 3.6/million) died yesterday, a number we haven't seen for a long time. 2174 died in the U.S. yesterday, a rate of 6.5/million.
- Interestingly enough, a 22December2021 study suggested that India's COVID-19 death toll could be 12 times higher, or over 6 million people. At that time the USA was at 811,000, the highest in the world.
I might finally add that the current COVID-19 mortality rate of the U.S. using current data is 1.36%.
- The mortality rate for the seasonal flu in 2017-2018 was 0.136% and in 2018-2019 was 0.1%.
- Divide the number of deaths by ten times the number of cases, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 0.136%, same as the seasonal flu.
- The number of COVID-19 deaths for this two-year period will be close to 1 million, while the seasonal flu periods were 61,000 and 34,157. Or, the COVID-19 deaths for two years was about 10 to 1 over the flu. The only difference was that COVID-19 had ten times more cases, or was ten times more contagious.
- The Omicron variant is supposedly 3 to 5 times more contagious than the Delta variant. In short, the average number of years between flus for an individual should have been 8 years. Looks like we will all catch the Omicron variant of COVID-19 every year unless a really effective vaccine is found. Nicely enough, as Omicron is now 95% of all cases, Pfizer announced that a vaccine just for Omicron would be available in March.
On that note, remember those early days of this pandemic when we were told to wear face masks, but avoid using the N95 mask because medical personal must have access for them? Incredibly enough, the current viewpoint will shock you. Says Dr. Leana Wen of CNN: Cloth masks are little more than facial decorations. There is no place for them in light of Omicron.
Most authorities now say that the best mask is the N95.
- To quote: N95 masks are made in several layers. The middle filtering layers are made of polypropylene fibers with an embedded electrostatic charge. FE is achieved by both the mechanical structure of the polypropylene filter layer and the electrostatic charge.
- You will see the term N95 respirator. That's the same as N95 mask.
- The key to efficiency is that the middle layers provide electrostatic absorption.
- This mask is designed to fit well. Cloth masks are not.
- Can you wash and reuse? DON'T USE SOAP AND WATER (FE will drop to 54%) or ALCOHOL (FE down to 67%). Gamma radiation not recommended. The following are for hospital use, and not really for home maintenance.
- However: Masks will retain 98.5% filtering efficiency (FE) after heating at 158F for one hour.
- Can be steam-cleaned (257F) for 5 min. Will retain 92-99% FE.
- Masks will retain 92.4% FE after boiling...but don't immerse the elastic band.
- Be careful to maintain mask contour on face.
- One way to reuse, though, is to have several, number them and rotate so each one rests at least 5 days. Keep away from UV light and sunlight.
- How to store? Somehow hang them away from each other.
- So what are KN95 masks?
- Closely related to N95, but most KN95 come from China.
- They look different in that the KN95 has a seam down the middle to allow folding.
- Watch out. The CDC says that about 60% of KN95 masks are counterfeit!!!
- Now that N95 and K95 masks are no longer in shortage, the CDC might well be on the verge of discouraging cloth or other types of mask, scarves, etc., and only recommend N95 and KN95 masks.
Note the above table about how long it takes to get infected:
- With no mask for both: 100% infected in 15 minutes.
- No mask by the sick person and cloth mask by you: 100% infected in 20 minutes.
- Both wearing cloth mask: 75% infected in 26 minutes.
- Both wearing fit-tested N95 mask: 10% infected in 25 hours.
- No mask by sick person and you wearing a fit-tested N95 mask: 10% infected in 2.5 hours.
Dr. Lena Wen is right! So much so that there is a rumor that this week, and if not certainly next week, the CDC will advise mask wearers to now don the N95 mask.
So I went to Amazon and purchased 20 N95 masks for $3 each. They came in two days.
A tweet on Monday from Senator Bernie Sanders:
All Americans should have face masks that will keep them safe. I will be introducing legislation tomorrow for N95 masks to be sent to every household in the country. This will save lives and reduce health care costs.
So maybe you can wait until you get yours for free. On the other hand, at this rather low cost of an N95 mask, go ahead and get some now. Amazon has 333 options. They come a bit stylish, too. While this one is KN95, it is 5-ply breathable and costs only $1.50 each, with delivery by January 15.
You can also click on this to get to the MISSAA Amazon page. All kinds of colors, tie-dye, camouflage, whatever. Mentioned in this article on what KN95 masks to buy.
- Is it approved? Don't know. You would think if these products are on Amazon.com, they must be okay. But, explore this CDC site for details.
- Or better yet, here is an article entitled, How to Spot a Fake KN95 Mask. It sends you to the FDA Certified Supplier Lookup. Looks awfully complicated.
- Some history: the FDA in April of 2020 did approve K95 masks from China. Then in June of 2021, the FDA backtracked. Frankly, I'm not sure if any K95 has been officially approved today.
- Ah, spend a few more dollars and get the official N95 mask...NOW!
- If you have nothing better to do, read this:
As dour and dangerous as the above sound, here are two notes from the past, plus a comedy clip about getting vaccinated, for the latest data shows that the unvaccinated are 13 times more likely to wind up in a hospital than the vaccinated:
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