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SHOULD JOE BIDEN RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024?

Donald Trump has been uncharacteristically quiet following his $5 million payment to E. Jean Carroll.  Well, you can watch him tonight at 8PM EDT (2PM Hawaii) at a CNN town hall moderated by Kaitlan Collins to take questions from New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters.

Too early to tell if this is the beginning of Trump's fall.  The next real poll will be crucial.  But is Biden in trouble anyway?

At this point, 545 days until 5 November 2024, presidential election day, anything can happen.  Time magazine had a comprehensive article on this subject just yesterday.  Showcased was the newest ABC-Washington Post survey (taken this past weekend--so before the Caroll win):

  • President Joe Biden's job approval hit a career low of 36%. 
  • 68% of Americans said that he is too old for another term.
  • This is the lowest on record for a first-term president a year and a half from the next presidential election.
    • Harry Truman  39%
    • Gerald Ford  40%
    • Jimmy Carter  37%
    • Donald Trump  39%
  • Honest and trustworthy?
    • Biden  41%
    • Trumps  33%
    • Surprising for Biden to score so low.
  • Republicans like Trump more than DeSantis as their presidential candidate, 51% to 25%.
  • Only 36% of Democrats want Biden to be their candidate, versus 58% someone else.
  • Looking far ahead to 5 November 2024, 44% would vote for Trump, 38% for Biden, with 12% undecided.  But these undecideds show a 49%-42% preference for Trump.
  • Surprisingly, DeSantis 42% versus Biden 37%, and counting undecideds, 48% DeSantis to 41% Biden.
DeSantis outpolling Biden today should be a shocker for Democrats.  Maybe some real effort needs to be made for gaining Michelle Obama's interest.

Well, anyway, this Time article went on to say something surprising.  In short, there are polls and there are other polls.  So many factors enter into the results.  Like, who did the polling?  Size of poll.  Was the phoning landline or cell?

  • Did you know that landline respondents dramatically vote Republican?  This ABC-WaPo poll used too many landline calls.
  • The ABC-WaPo poll had a tiny survey size.
  • This poll was compared to the infamous Roper Poll in 1948 which inaccurately showed Dewey beating Truman.
  • In short, ignore this ABC-WaPo poll as anomalous.

So should Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. run for president in 2024.? I think not.  He will be 80 years old later this year. If re-elected, he will be 85 years old at the end of his second term.

  • The current median age of national leaders is 62.  But less free countries average 69.
  • 5% are in their 80's.  The only other free country elder is 81-year old Hage Geingob of Namibia.
  • 13 countries have female leaders, and the median age is 57.
  • Oh, about Paul Blya, he has been in power for four decades, and apparently is in good shape.  He repealed term limits in 2008, allowing him to serve indefinitely.  But there is corruption and is said to have killed 3500 since 2017.  Plans to run again.
  • And, by the way, Ali Khamanei, Supreme leader of Iran is 84, Nawaf Al-Amad Al-Japer Al-Sabah, Emir of Kuwait is 85, King Harald V of Norway is 86, Pope Francis is 86, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia is 87, Mahmoud Abbas, President of Palestine is 87 and Biya is 90.
  • The oldest leader of all time is led by:
    • #1    Giovanni Paolo Lasaris (right), Grand Master of the Knight Hospitaller, who died in office in 1657 at 97.
    • #2     Enrico Dandolo, Dodge of Venice, 1205, 97 or 98.
    • #3     Abdul Mornin, Sultan of Brunei, 1885, 97.
    • #4     Elizabeth II, Queen of the UK, 2022, 96.
    • #5     Hastings Banda, President of Malawi, 1994, defeated in re-election, 96.
    • #6     Prem Tinsulanonda, Regent of Thailand, 2016, term ended, 95.
    • #7     George Tupou I, King of Tonga, 1893, 95.
  • Finally, oldest surviving former leader.
    • #1     Khamtai Siphandone (right), President of Laos, 99.
    • #2     Tomiichi Murayama, Prime Minister of Japan, 99
    • #3     Jimmy Carter, President of the USA, 98.
    • #7    Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia, almost 98.
Oh well, maybe Joe Biden is not too old.  We have well-functioning residents at 15 Craigside who are close to a hundred, and over, who are still fabulously healthy and capable.

- 

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