INDIA NOW HAS MORE PEOPLE THAN CHINA

Season 21 of American Idol has two weekends to go.  Last night three contestants were eliminated and now 5 remain.  The show also had a scoop of a lifetime, for on walk in King Charles III and Queen Camilla.  He was only crowned Saturday.  Lionel Richie and Katy Perry had joined Nicole Scherzinger, Andrea Bocelli and others in just entertaining them.  Watch this all here.  

One of the five finalists is Iam Tongi, a Kahuku High student from  Hawaii.  The next show will be on May 14 to whittle the number down to three for the final on Sunday, May 21.

About the topic of today, here is a headline you might have missed...from the United Nations:

UN DESA Policy Brief No. 153: 

India overtakes 

China as the world’s most populous country

Some time last month--can't find the exact day--both their population reached 1,427,775,850.  But India is growing, while China is declining.

Both countries had close to 6 births/woman in 1970.  This number has dropped closer to 1 for China and 2 for India.

Here is why.

The reason why the UN has not settled on an exact date when India surpassed China is that they don't quite know how many babies are actually born in India, for many births are just not reported.  

• The guess is 24 million births/year, or around 66,000/day.  Or, every 21 days the babies born in India equal the current population of Hawaii.
• Of course there too are deaths, and China has a death rate of 29,2311/day, while India's is 25,640 because China has an older population.
• So counting births and deaths, India needs 36 days to equal the current population of Hawaii.

That Figure 2 above has other interesting data.

• The USA had 200 million people in 1970 and had the third largest population.  Russia had 130 million and was #4.
• However, the USA grew 140 million to 340 million in 2023, while Russia only grew by 14 million to 144 million.
• Further, the population of Russia is expected to drop by 8 million to 136 million in 2050.  The U.S. will grow by 35 million to 375 million, but still will drop to #4 in the world.
• Why?  
• Nigeria had a population of around 26 million when I was born in 1940.
• That jumped to 56 million in 1970, and to 224 million in 2023.  
• It is expected to jump by 153 million in 2050 to 377 million, replacing the U.S. as #3.
• Eight countries will be responsible for half the growth of the world population from now to 2050.  Five of them are from Africa.
• Just the sub-Saharan population will double from 1 billion to 2 billion by 2050.
• You can take drastic measures like China did by invoking a one-child policy, and suffer the consequences.
• But Africa does not have a communist form of government, so improving the economy will be the most effective way to control their numbers to minimize world population growth.
• Next to Russia going crazy and initiating a nuclear holocaust, or global warming, and perhaps a more serious pandemic, population control today is high on this list for concern and solution.
• India in 2050 will have 1.67 billion and China will decline to 1.3 billion.
• One more comparison:
• Japan has a population of 125 million.  Vietnam, around 100 million.
• In 2050, Japan will drop to 106 million, while Vietnam is expected to rise to 110 million.
• Japan is expected to further shrink to 83 million in 2100, with over a third of the population 65 and older.  Already, today, more adult diapers are sold in Japan than infant ones!

In the late 1970's, India was more affluent (in economic output/person).  Then China chose a hybrid enterprise pathway--market forces and foreign investment--still controlled by the central government.  In effect, China abandoned communism.  The chose the American way of business over the Soviet Union.

India waited until the 1980s to open its quasi-socialist economy.  But there was too much politics and competing interests.  One advantage of the China form of governance is that the central government dictates.  Why foreign companies chose to locate in China over India were the aggressive investments by China in roads, airports, rail networks and other infrastructure.  Even the USA fell behind in all these areas.

One other reason why India will lag economically is the gender gap in education.  For example, only one-fifth of Indian woman have a formal job.

So while China's population is declining, for now, they will continue to be an economic powerhouse.  However, the country will get old before it gets rich.  China's Singles' Day on 11/11 (the opposite of Valentine's Day) is now the biggest shopping day in the world.  More and more of the younger generation is staying single.  

Perhaps by 2050 there will be too few of them to take care of the elderly.  There is no social security system.  Look for a serious economic decline at some point between now and then, and certainly by 2065.

About the world, the UN reported that on 22 November 2022 we reached a population of 8 billion, with a peak of 9 billion expected around 2090.  That is one UN point of view.  Another says the world population will stabilize at nearly 11 billion in 2200.  

In any case, from a resource availability standpoint, we are over what should be our optimal global population.  From Wikipedia:

Paul R. Ehrlich stated in 2018 that the optimum population is between 1.5 and 2 billion.^[15] Geographer Chris Tucker estimates that 3 billion is a sustainable number, provided human societies rapidly deploy less harmful technologies and best management practices.^[16] Other estimates of a sustainable global population also come in at considerably less than the current population of 8 billion.^[17][18][19]

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