THE LATEST UPDATE ON THE OMICRON VARIANT

Worldometer indicates that the U.S. has 334 million people, and there have been 50,801,455 cases of COVID-19, or 1 in 6.6 people.  However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 1 in 3 people in this country has been infected.  How can two sources be so different?  Not only is this difference unexplained, but the CDC said that they estimate the actual number of cases is three times the official count.  If you divide 3 into 6.6, this number is 2.2 times, not 3, so now I'm doubly confused, as you too should be.  It gets worse, showing that you sometimes need to be careful about some news reports.

Further said in this CNN article, New Jersey and Alabama tie for the most deaths/100,000 people with 332.  The lowest two states are Vermont with 69 deaths/100,000 and Hawaii with 75.  No other state is lower than 100.

Well, actually, this CNN article is wrong again, by a factor of 100.  If I do the appropriate mathematics, the numbers should have been:

• New Jersey and Alabama tie for the most deaths/100,000 with 3.3.
• Vermont  has 0.69 deaths/100,00 and Hawaii 0.75.
• No other state is lower than 1.0.

You would think that these same states should be at these extremes for cases/100,000, but--these are the corrected numbers:

• North Dakota leads with 219 and Tennessee with 196.  Regarding the lowest cases/100,000, it is reversed, with Hawaii the lowest with 63 and Vermont next with 90.  Clearly, Hawaii has done relatively well because we are an island state, where you can easily track incoming traffic, with a very cautious governor.

How do our states compare with the world?

                                 Cases/100,000    Deaths/100,000

• World                       35                  0.7
• USA                       152                  2.5
• India                        25                   0.3
• UK                        158                    2.1
• Russia                     69                   2.0
• Czechia                 217                   3.2
• Peru                        67                   6.0
• South Africa           52                    1.5
• Japan                      14                  0.15
• Sweden                 121                  1.5
• S. Korea                 10                   0.8
• Australia                  9                    0.8
• China                      0.07               0.003
• Taiwan                    0.7                 0.04       

There are worse countries than the USA, but we are among them.  Our infected states rank among the world worst, while our less afflicted states are better than South Korea, Japan and Australia in deaths/100,000.

As of December 9 the Omicron variant has been detected in 63 countries.

• Early signs show that Omicron is spreading faster than Delta.
• In the UK, Omicron is doubling every two to three days and will become the dominant variant by the end of the year.
• However, it's only been three weeks, but COVID-19 cases seem to be already peaking in South Africa, where Omicron was first detected in abundance.  The positivity rate also dropped from a high of 30%, now down to 15%.  Hospitalizations in Gauteng fell from 207 to 64 over this same period.
• In South Africa, the ICU occupancy was 6.3%, MUCH LOWER than when Delta peaked in July.
• These promising developments when South Africa has only added some light restrictions, like a curfew from 12-4AM.  And ONLY 23% of the population has been fully vaccinated.
• Fully vaccinated people are catching this virus, but mostly in super-spreading events.  The obvious clue here is, DON'T GO TO THESE GATHERINGS!!!
• Also, Pfizer suggested that their third dose increases Omicron resistance 25-fold, compared to two doses.

Last week one of my postings was entitled:  MAYBE OMICRON REPLACING DELTA MIGHT BE OKAY FOR HUMANITY.  

• This is looking more and more prescient.  
• The initial deep anxiety will hopefully spur more to get inoculated as quickly as possible.  
• Rather than outright government mandates, if more countries allow health plans to pass on hospital costs to unvaccinated individuals, as is now occurring in Singapore, herd immunity will more quickly be reached.  
• THE AVERAGE COST OF HOSPITAL CARE FOR COVID-19 RANGES FROM $51,000 TO $78,000, BASED ON AGE.  Under 20 paid $68,271, while over 60 averaged $77,323.  It gets worse for longer hospital stays:  $324,285 if under 20 years of age and $152,388 for patients over 60.  And even worse, if over 15 days:  $980,821 for 21-49 year old patients, and $460,989 for those over 60.
• If you don't have a medical plan, you are in deep trouble that could ruin your life forever, but if you do, much of the current resistance to getting inoculated should disappear.  
• As the FDA/CDC allow vaccinations for the rest of the younger population, parental reluctance will also melt away.
• Inpatient COVID-19 hospitalizations cost the U.S.healthcare system between $9.6 billion and $16.9 billion in 2020.  Of course, there is 2021 and then 2020 to come.

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