THE OCEAN AS A SOLUTION FOR GLOBAL WARMING: Part 2--TEDx Telecast Hosted by Blue Revolution Hawaii

      From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

         DAY   USA    WORLD   Brazil     India      South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185           246            82

July    22     1205     7128         1293         1120          572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242           835          130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136          1168            82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571           703            85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620           518           118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224          299           465

Jan     14       4142     15512        1151           189           712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209          107           398

Mar     2        1989      9490        1726          110           194

April   6          906     11787         4211          631            37

May    4         853     13667         3025        3786           59 

June   1         287    10637         2346         3205            95

 July   7          251      8440        1595           817            411

Aug    4          656    10120        1118            532           423 

Sept   1        1480    10470          703           505           235

        22       2228      9326          839           279           124

        29        2190      8859         643           309           108

Oct    5        1811       7495          686           285          103

          6        2102       8255         543           315            59

        12        1819       7544         201           249             37 

        19        2005      7528         401           160             80 

        27       1594       8671         433           734              62 

Nov   3        1436       7830        186           458             23

        10        1493      8366         264           362             48

        17        1416       8440         374           470              11

Dec    1        1633      8475         266           477             28 

          8        1324       7894         231           159             36

        15         1690      8233         227           343            54

        16           997       7115          173            391            36

        17          1653      7359         126            289           35 

        22         1634      7686         137            434           99

Summary: 

• Well, not so good.
• The USA had 233,383 new cases yesterday, with the UK now up to 106,122, and parts of Europe even higher in terms of new cases/million.
• US  696
• New York  1407
• Rhode Island  1708
• DC  2177
• Hawaii  686
• UK  1551
• Denmark  2216
• France  1287
• Spain  1283
• Switzerland  1216
• Reunion  5064
• South Africa 349
• South Korea 146
• Singapore  57
• Japan  2

COVID-19, even the Omicron variant, remains a deadly concern for the elderly.  From the UK, via the New York Times this morning:

Note that this graphic is for vaccinated individuals.  The 0.23% for a 65 year-old man means that, if 10,000 of this group contract COVID-19, around 23 will die.  Keep in mind, though, that if you are vaccinated and boosted, even with the Omicron variant, chances are low that you will get infected, and even less so if you take all the precautions.

Here is a meaningful comparison, which I think is erroneous:  this New York Times article said that the average death rate among Americans over the age of 65 who contract the flu has ranged between 1 in 75 to 1 in 160.  This converts to a mortality rate for the flu between 62.5 to 133.3 per 10,000.  In other words, just contracting the seasonal flu means you have from 3 to 6 times a higher chance of dying than that hypothetical 65-year old vaccinated man in the UK of succumbing from COVID-19 if he gets infected.

So I further checked and found that the seasonal flu kills 2.2/10,000 for those 65 and older (and 0.9/10,000 for the 50-64 year-old group).  This is roughly 50 times lower than what was reported above.  SO CANCEL WHAT YOU JUST READ IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH!  The correct comparison should be that the 65-year old  UK COVID-19 patient has more than a TEN times higher chance of dying than a 65-year old American flu case.

But all the above confounds me even more by these quotes from CDC data:

Based on that analysis, what is striking is that those under the age of 15 are at significantly lower risk of death from COVID-19 than of the flu. Under our assumptions, for example, children under the age of 15 have a 1 in 155,535 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 1.2 million chance of dying of COVID-19.

For toddlers, the relative risk is even more pronounced. We estimate that Americans between ages 1–4 are 3.4 times more likely to die of influenza than of COVID-19.

Would you have guessed that the fatality rate of children in the 1-4 age group is 3.4 times higher for the seasonal flu than COVID-19?  But this graphic explains what is happening:

If infected, the mortality for COVID-19 versus the seasonal flu:

• If you are 4 or younger, you are more prone to die of the seasonal flu than COVID-19.
• The 4-15 age group has slightly more deaths from COVID-19 than the flu if infected.
• Then, the older you are, your chances of death from COVID-19 increases to a factor of 15 from 45 to 64.
• Then, some additional illogic, for the the ratio then drops for the more elderly, and if older than 84, at 5.55 times higher for COVID-19 than the flu, about the same as the 15-24 age group.

While I'm at this (based on CDC data), for those so unfortunate as to contract this virus:

• Those older than 85 are 119 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those aged 25-34.
• Those under 15 are 73 times less likely to die of COVID-19 than those aged 25-34.
• Those older than 85 are 8687 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those under 15.

If you are interested in this kind of data, read this article.

Finally, something else that seems almost unfair.  From early South African data, as reported by the New York Times, the Omicron variant seems to have a preference for re-infecting those who previously suffered from COVID-19.  For some reason, they re-catch it, but their bodies remember the drill, and provide enough protection for these individuals to avoid serious illness.  This is part of the reason at this early stage of analysis why there are so few hospitalization cases in the country.

Finally, the FDA has officially approved two oral pills to treat COVID-19 patients at home:

• 
  Paxlovid by Pfizer is authorized for patients 12 or older who are at a high risk of developing serious conditions. 
• Has been shown to be 89% effective in keeping people from hospitalization.
• Must be taken within 5 days of the first symptom.
• 30 tablets, 6/day for 5 days.

• 
  Molnupiravir by Merck, also for high-risk adults.
• Only 30% effective.
• 8 pills/day for 5 days.
• One full course of Paxlovid will cost $530.  $700 for Molnupiravir.
• Why would anyone choose Molnupiravir over Paxlovid???
• Both should become available next month.

On December 8 my posting was entitled:  MAYBE OMICRON REPLACING DELTA MIGHT BE OKAY FOR HUMANITY.  I suggested that if early speculations come true, the high transmission rate of Omicron, combined with lower fatality rate, plus the growing availability of these pills and the development of advance vaccines (as, for example, the Novovax NVX-CoV2373), two shots plus booster specifically for the Omicron variant), will in time reduce COVID-19 to just another virus of concern for the seasonal flu.  This appears to be coming true.  So when will this pandemic be declared over?  Still too early to tell.

Yesterday I presented the view of the National Academies on oceanic solutions for global warming.  This is part two on how the ocean can be utilized as a global warming solution.  Borrowing from the Blue Revolution Hawaii blog site, with slight adjustments:

On Dec 11 Blue Revolution Hawaii had a successful TEDx Countdown webcast of talks by 8 leading experts on the potential of open ocean aquaculture for expanding world food supply while reducing Global Warming emissions. The recorded Talks have been uploaded to TEDx for review and may be selected in a month or so for TED's Library of Talks. In the meantime, here are the individual talks:

Pat Takahashi: https://vimeo.com/657074946/8f1aa884f8

Neil Sims: https://vimeo.com/657075206/1e77736f9c

Luis A. Vega: https://vimeo.com/657075716/7c7b3490b0

William A. Spencer: https://vimeo.com/657076364/ec505c1150

Mathew Goldsborough: https://vimeo.com/657076743/156650f706

Shaun Moss: https://vimeo.com/657077047/48d398f963

Dawn Lippert: https://vimeo.com/657077455/95b82612b2

Tetsuzan Benny Ron: https://vimeo.com/657077865/22e3a3e458

Additionally click on the Blue Revolution Hawaii website to:

• Visit the  Nature Conservancy advocacy of the Blue Revolution for Sustainable Aquaculture Production.
• Watch the BRH video for the Pacific International Ocean Station.
• Details about the eight speakers, including chairman:

Leighton Chong, intellectual property attorney, Chairman of TEDx Event

Pat Takahashi,  PhD, Professor of Engineering and Director of Renewable Energy at University of Hawaii

“The Time for the Blue Revolution Is Now”

Neil Sims, MSc (Zool, UNSW), Founder/CEO, Ocean Era Inc, Kona, Hawai’i

“To the Blue Horizon – Our Oceans as a Salve for Our Ailing Earth”

Luis A. Vega, PhD, Renewable Energy Consultant, formerly at UH/HNEI

“OTEC Carbon-Free & Renewable Power for Ocean Farming & Beyond”

William A. Spencer, Founder Hawaii Oceanic Technology, Inc., Mariculture Evolution Group

“Automated Open Ocean Fish Farming Platform”

Mathew Goldsborough, Chief Technology Officer, Forever Oceans

"Oceans of Data: Technology, Transparency & Future of Open-Ocean Fish Farms"

Shaun Moss, PhD, Executive Director, Oceanic Institute, HPU

"Improving Production Efficiencies in Aquaculture Through Selective Breeding"

Dawn Lippert, Exec Director Elemental Excelerator, Chair Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative AB

“Building Community Intelligence” (first presented at TEDx 2021 Countdown Summit, Edinburgh)

Tetsuzan Benny Ron, Ph.D., Aquaculture Specialist, Blue Revolution Hawaii, AquacultureHub

“Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture (IMTA) for Ocean Farming Systems”

Special thanks also to Amnon Ron, chief operating officer of CME Congresses in Israel, for providing superior technical assistance.

Perhaps on Christmas Day (NASA is not sure--this was supposed to occur tomorrow, but bad weather postponed the launch to 7:20AM EST on December 25, then again, maybe later, for THE ORIGINAL LAUNCH DATE WAS IN 2007), the James Webb Space Telescope will be launched.  To quote from Slate:

Planetary scientist Peter Gao, a staff scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science, captured the sentiment in a tweet: “scicomm: JWST is the biggest telescope to be sent to space it will help find life and tell us how the universe started isn’t it amazing??? / astronomers: my entire career hinges on this bucket of single point failures I’m so nervous I’m crying and throwing up everywhere.” Astrophysics postdoc Erin May, who studies exoplanet atmospheres—a major focus, pun yes intended, of the new telescope—tweeted, “HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO LIVE, LAUGH, LOVE IN THESE CONDITIONS” with the hashtag #JWSTLaunchMemes. The astronomers are not all right.

Except they are, because the JWST mechanisms and machinery have been rigorously assessed and tested. Except they’re not, because that “bucket of single-point failures” contains more than 300 individual things that could each fail and bring the whole $10 billion, 13,700 pound, 30-years-in-development mission down with them. And unlike Mars missions, which will likely keep happening and happening even when one inevitably fails, a failure here could mean a much more conservative future for space observatories, and no second chance.

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