While it is foolish to prematurely be overly optimistic, early signs show that Omicron might be more infectious than Delta, but not as deadly. However, while vaccines still work, they seem not to be as effective. Yet, they clearly reduce the incidence of hospitalization and death. For one, those who are infected with Omicron apparently experience a lower incidence of taste/smell loss. What seems possible then is that Omicron will shortly replace Delta as the prominent variant, and cases might still continue to increase. However the mortality rate should drop.
Delta was 64% more deadly than the original and earlier variants, and caused double the risk of hospitalization compared to Alpha. In general:
- The COVID-19 mortality rate for the World is 2%.
- U.S. 1.78%
- India 1.3%
- Russia 2.86%
- South Africa 2.96%
- Japan 1.06%
- China 4.7%
- Further:
- There is no consensus on the asymptomatic rate, or what percentage of those counted as cases were asymptomatic. Thus, if there were 50% more actual cases because of asymptomaticity, the world death rate would be 1.3% and the U.S. 1.2%.
- This rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%. It is surmised that the asymptomatic rate for the flu is 50%. If this total is used, then the true mortality rate for the flu is closer to 0.05%.
- In other words, assuming that the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19 and the flu are about the same (which is pretty much what most reports say), using the average World rate, COVID-19 is 20 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.
- China's rate was high because hospitals early on did not know what to do and did not have access to later curative options.
- Japan's rate was low because most of their cases came more recently.
- One would surmise then that the 2% mortality rate of the World could drop closer to 1% when the pandemic ends.
- Thus, COVID-19 would end up being "only" 10 times more apt to kill you than the seasonal flu.
Thus, if what is known about the Omicron variant holds true, a likely scenario is it replacing Delta as the prominent virus, which means that the pandemic will be prolonged, for a better vaccine will need to be developed. However, there will be fewer deaths. If Omicron retains that leading role, with the development of more effective vaccines, COVID-19 could become in time one of causes of the seasonal flu. Essentially, one more row will be added to the one on the right.
If we're really lucky, COVID-19 might someday degrade to common cold status. Perhaps a more transmissible variant with even lower mortality rate will replace Omicron. If so, just add it to the 200 viruses that are responsible for this sickness.
One benefit of this pandemic is that what has happened is that colds and flus have mostly disappeared. They're still there, but masks, isolation and handwashing have reduced their incidence. Incredibly, the 25 to 50 million seasonal flu cases per year in the USA dropped to 2,038 from September 27, 2020 to April 24, 2021.
The average adult historically gets hit with a cold 2 to 4 times/year, with 6-10 for children. While the U.S. has had 50 million COVID-19 cases over the past nearly two years, the annual cold rate is normally a billion or so. The last time I had a cold was in December of 2019. At least twice I began to get a sore throat at night, and willed my body to fight it. I prevailed. Makes me wonder if this Moderna vaccine also fights off the cold viruses. Read this to re-learn the anatomy of a cold.
However, there is an indication that the common cold is making a resurgence this year. If this indeed is true, as most are still wearing masks and remain somewhat cautious, I wonder if cold transmission is different from COVID-19. Perhaps contact or whatever. There is thus reason to believe that there will be a lot more flus this year than in 2020.
So my obviously premature speculation, subject to later change, is that Omicron will more and more increase in accounting for COVID-19 cases. However, more and more of us will get boosted and re-inoculated with better and better vaccines, and the pandemic will someday pass away when fewer and fewer actually die of this virus. When will this occur? Not ready to guess at this early date, but should be some time next year.
More cuteness, ending with Pearl's Gold Koi:
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