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Part 1: WHICH COUNTRIES GAIN MOST FROM GLOBAL WARMING

  From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712              
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar     2        1989     9490        1726       110      194
April   6          906     11787         4211       631       37
May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 
June   1         287    10637         2346      3205       95
 July   7          251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug    4          656    10120        1118         532     423 
Sept  22       2228     9326          839        279      124
        29         2190      8859         643        309      108
Oct    6         2102       8255         543        315       59
        19        2005      7528         401        160        80 
        27        1594      8671         433        734        62 
Nov   3         1436      7830        186        458        23
        24        1594      8270         176        396        22 
Dec    1        1633      8475        266         477       28
          8        1324      7894         231        159       36
        17        1653      7359         126        289       35 
        22        1634      7686         137        434       99
        23        1149      6942         100        374       75

Summary:

  • A drop of new deaths yesterday, but we still lead the world, and let's see what this number looks like in a week.  There is a good chance it could drop lower because the Omicron variant shows milder symptoms.
  • #2 in new deaths was Russia with 1002, or 6.9/million.  The U.S. was 3.4/million.  Poland had 16.3 new deaths/million.  South Africa?  1.24/million.
  • However, Omicron is causing a problem, for we yesterday had 267,269 new cases, or a rate of 800/million population.  New cases/million:
    • World  125
    • USA  800
      • New York  1965
      • New Jersey  2036
      • DC  2720
      • Hawaii  1079
    • UK  1747
    • Spain  1558
    • South Korea  438
    • South Africa  350
    • Japan  2.1

From the New York Times this morning:

Worried about the U.S. versus Russia over the Ukraine?  Peanuts!  You might wonder why Vladimir Putin seems to show so much confidence.  Perhaps the following is why, and it will shake you up.

The New York Times reports that Russia has the most to gain from global warming:

  • Has the largest land mass by far of any any northern nation.
  • By 2080 one-third of their land will begin to switch from being absolutely extreme in hospitality to fairly favorable, then hospitable.
  • Two million more square miles will become available for farming.  The total farming area for the U.S. today is 1.4 million.
  • Crop production will be boosted by warmer temperatures, while those current major farming regions will decline in production.
  • In southern Siberia this past year, crop production produced twice the yields as the year before...exactly what was predicted...for 2050.
  • Food exportation will strengthen ties to Pakistan, India, Indonesia Middle East, Africa and other countries.
  • Already wheat exports have jumped 100%, surpassing those of the U.S. and Europe, and have now become the largest, responsible for a quarter of the global market.
  • Agricultural exports from 2000 to 2018 jumped sixteen-fold, and are in terms of dollars now more than weapons export.
  • Russia also has a goal of keeping their farm commodities GMO-free.
  • A major relocation plan has begun to provide free farm plots, with free college and trade training for citizens willing to move north.  Unfortunately, so far those taking advantage of this program have been people already living there.  Thus, the effort has expanded to foreigners, where inter-marriages are growing.
  • Crop yields in the U.S. from Texas to Nebraska could fall by up to 90% as soon as 2040.
  • The four years of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s saw crop yields in the U.S. drop by 60%.
  • Melting Arctic sea ice will open a new shipping lane to cut transit times from Europe to Southeast Asia by 40%.
  • Russia's prime cities are not vulnerable to sea level rise.
  • The USA is seriously vulnerable to sea level rise, and trillions of dollars will need to be spent in the coming decades for this reason.
  • Interestingly enough, one of the reasons why the Department of Defense is so into reducing climate warming is that 1700 of their military installations are vulnerable to sea and river level rise.
  • The optimum climate for human productivity is an average annual temperature between 52 and 59 F.
  • Draw a line around the planet at the latitude of the northern borders of the USA and China, and just about every place south stands to lose out.
  • Marshall Burke of Stanford projects that by 2100 the national per capita income in the U.S. might be a third less, with a 92% drop for India.
  • Get this, Burke predicts that the U.S, per capita GNP will drop by 36%, while Russia's will quadruple.
  • Canada, Scandinavia, Iceland  and Russia could see as much as a fivefold burst in per capita gross domestic products in that same time frame.
  • For Russia, in-migration could become a powerful political tool, something the U.S. and much of Europe are fighting.
  • Canada,
     too, is reported to be particularly positioned for success:
    • has considerable timber, fossil fuels, hydropower
    • 20% the world's freshwater
    • stable democracy
    • should be 2.5 times richer by 2100 in per capita GDP
    • could smartly triple its population in this period
  • Norway and Sweden already bring in 15,000 to 30,000 migrant workers each to pick fruits and berries.
  • More than war politics, this matter of benefiting from global warming seems to have pushed the Chinese and Russian governments closer together.  Some of this was spurred by the trade war the U.S. imposed on those countries.

Scare you a bit?  Read the full article.  This was part 3 of a partnership between ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, with support from the Pulitzer Center. Read Part 1 and Part 2.


There will be a part 2 to this issue:  WHICH COMPANIES GAIN MOST FROM GLOBAL WARMING.  This will be a surprise, but those progressive renewable energy firms are well position to take advantage of what is to come.

Well, this is Christmas Eve, so...Mele Kalikimaka:


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