MY GOURMET VEGETABLE DIET WORKS

   From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732        1185        246       82

July    22     1205     7128        1293      1120      572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835      130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136      1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571       703       85

Nov    25     2304    12025        620         518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748      1224        299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512         1151         189      712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

          25       2414    10578        1582        119      144

Mar     2        1989    9490        1726        110      194

          17        1289     9736         2736       171       74

          24         936   10206        3158       277       55

          31         1115    12301         3950      458      58

 April  7          906    11787         4211       631       37

Summary:  Looks like this pandemic is not going away.

What is the mortality rate of COVID-19, and how does it compare with the seasonal flu?

• COVID-19  World  2%
• COVID-19  U.S. today  1.8%
• COVID-19  U.S. August of 2020  3%
• COVID-19  U.S. June of 2020  5%
• Seasonal Flu  World  0.1%

So this death rate is dropping.  Yet, from almost a year ago, most authorities thought that COVID-19 would eventually settle at 0.5%, or five times worse than the seasonal flu.  Here is a summary of a June posting I had entitled, COVID-19:  How is it possible that the medical field was off by a factor of 10 in the mortality rate?

• Well, in June 2020, Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said:  Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections.
• In other words, the asymptomatic rate was 93% (1 divided by 11).
• Also:

Virus                           Estimated Case Fatality Rate (FCR)

SARS-CoV                                             10%

MERS-CoV                                            34%

Seasonal Flu                                      0.1% to 0.2%

Ebola                                                  40% to 50% 

COVID-19                                        0.1% to 5%

• The death rate for age categories of COVID-19 and the flu is similar:

So while the mortality rate for the U.S. has continued to drop, from 5% in June 2020 to 3% in August 2020 to 1.8% today, it is nowhere close to the expected 0.5%.  The asymptomatic rate is no doubt the reason:

• In September of 2020, Anthony Fauci thought this was from 40-45%.  If so, then the mortality rate would settle at 1.2%.
• However, the asymptomatic rate would need to be 72.3% for the mortality rate to settle at 0.5%.

Maybe this matter will never be satisfactorily explained.  But that is not the current issue of today.

Older people are being more and more protected by vaccines and mostly the younger generation is being infected. Thus the death rate is dropping quite significantly,  Even though puplic carelessness has caused a fourth wave, hospitals are not being inundated because of this age mortality rate benefit:

In other words, if people under 35 are now being infected, as opposed to mostly the elder, the death rate should today only be from 1-10% of what it once was for the same number of cases.  Thus, decision-making numbers like positivity needs to be adjusted by this number to determine the tier seriousness of a community.  In other words, while once needed less than a 1% positivity rate to enter Tier 4, perhaps even 10% might actually be tolerable.  Take Hawaii, for example;

We are now in Tier 3, but the 7-day average of new cases has recently been stuck above 100.  So they are considering reverting to tier 2.  But hospitals have an abundance of space.  What's going on?  Well, most of new cases are younger patients, who have low mortality rates.  THE STATE ADMINISTRATION HAS TO ADJUST TO THESE NEW CONDITIONS.  Considering the vaccination rate today and who is getting sick, we can actually justify jumping to Tier 4, or business as normal.  There are signs that the State and counties are getting around to understanding this situation.  But, maybe not.

Once that vaccination passport matter gets worked out, and this could take till mid-summer, society should be back to almost normal.  People will still contract some form of COVID-19, but fewer and fewer will die because the only ones getting infected will be those who were not vaccinated, or the unlucky few who did, but did not become immune.  Remember, these vaccinations are not 100% efficient.

I two days ago ended with how beer can make you  healthier.  You keep reading that good health comes from nutrition, exercise, sleep, minimization of stress and so on.   Most of us know this, but then why are there so many fat people?  Globally, 39% of adults are overweight or obese, but in the U.S. it is 70%.  If your BMI is 25 or higher, you are in this category  Obesity means 30 or higher.  See right column to calculate yours.

Through evolution, your body became efficient.  Notice that in some cultures, like Polynesia and even Hawaii royalty, morbid obesity became a desired condition.  Thus, if you live an easy life and eat what you want, you will become obese.  With all the temptations now available in most societies, the result is what we see.

Wikipedia lists the USA as #12 in obesity rate.  However, ten of those eleven "countries" worse than us are South Pacific islanders.  I've been there.  When you board a flight, there is a stewardess passing out seatbelt extensions.  Kuwait is #11 and Jordan #13.  Others:

• #22    New Zealand
• #36    UK
• #67    Norway
• #79    Germany
• #107  Italy
• #140  Thailand
• #169  China
• #183  South Korea
• #185  Japan
• #188  India
• #191  Vietnam

You've got to wonder.  Could obesity be related to COVID-19 infections.?

As a matter of fact, the New York Times reported that countries with obese people suffered the most from COVID-19

You would think that weight control should be easy.  From Pressbooks:

Energy Balance = energy intake – energy expenditure

Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) is the energy used by your body at rest, and notice that your liver and brain use the most.  That Thermic Effect of Food piece has to do with the energy used to digest, absorb and store nutrients.  You don't need to have a PhD in chemical engineering to understand these basic relationships.  However I do have that degree, so maybe I should have more credibility about this specific subject.  

Physical activity comes in two forms, exercise and everything else, like cleaning house, shopping, etc.  We are all different in that genetics and whatever else determine how efficient you are in doing these activities.  This can vary up to 2,000 calories/day.  Here is where people become obese or remain normal.

A sedentary person only needs 1800 calories.  If you consume 3500 more calories than what your body needs, you gain a pound of fat.  This is per day.

You would think that weight should then be a simple matter of using up the energy you consume.  However, here your body becomes a problem, for if you fast or otherwise go on a diet, a survival mechanism kicks in to reduce your organs from using energy.  Further, there are powerful physiological and psychological forces that make it more difficult for some to maintain energy balance.  For example, some individuals have a digestive system that absorb more nutrients.

Of course people are different, for the degree of hunger, appetite and satiety varies.  Some blame hormones.  But no matter what dietitians and psychologists say, I still think it's mind over matter, and you should be able to control your weight by maintaining zero balance/day.  

If you have a weight problem, begin by eating fewer calories, like carbohydrates, and minimize your long term hunger pang by consuming a lot more vegetables.  Also, cut out desserts.  If your weight goes up, reduce snacking.  Sleep more.  Staying up forces some to snack.  Forget all those new-fangled diet schemes.  Just take these simple steps.  For one, it's free.  However, don't take my advice, check with your health provider.

I've never really dieted before.  Most of my adult life I've always wanted to lose four pounds, and never could.  This was partly because I kept reading that being slightly overweight improved your longevity, so there was no compelling desire.  Note in these graphs that being really skinny or morbidly obese is bad. 

However, the pandemic and subsequent quarantine changed lives.  Many gained weight.  I once golfed two or three times/week and thus could eat and drink whatever I wanted.  I was still slightly overweight with a BMI around 25-26.  In this crisis, because I could not golf at all, I started reducing solid carbohydrates (rice, bread, potatoes, pasta), while increasing vegetable and fish intake.  Skipped desserts and snacks.  I did now and then splurge with steak and other meats.  I even turned to Japanese wagyu FAT (which can be purchased at Marukai for $10/pound) for flavor and mental enhancement.  

If you have been reading my postings, you would think that I am engorging myself every day with meats, pasta and gourmet foods, while imbibing wine, beer and sake, usually all at the same meal.  Yes, this occurs, but only a few times/week.  More on this later.

A year ago I was around 163 pounds, a BMI of 25.34, which is just in the overweight region.  Slowly over time I cut that down to below 160, then a couple of months ago my weight dipped to 155.  Hmm, reduced the stress on my knees, so why not lower?  Even more vegetables.  When I went on the scale yesterday, I was at 151.4 pounds, or a BMI of 23.54  So my soft goal now is to by the time of my world cruise in January next year, reach 150 pounds, or a BMI of 23.2.

I still occasionally walk on a golf course, and my knees feel better because I am 10 pounds lighter.  While I know I am able to persevere and delay gratification better than most, anyone should be able to do what I did.  And without guilt have that occasional steak or custard pie or boiled peanuts.

Thus, my gourmet diet is full of vegetables, but enhanced.  A glance through my blog shows that I splurge on steak, foie gras, spaghetti and more every so often, meaning two or three times/week.  I drink all the alcohol--which is also a carbohydrate--I want.  How much is all?  Well, a beer for lunch, plus a cocktail with my bath after MWF wellness room exercises or golf, ending with an ounce or two of sake, half a bottle of beer and four ounces of wine for dinner.  The two keys, I think, are lots of vegetables and fish, raw and cooked.  Oh, I now also have a small bit of dessert.  That photo to the right is of my Easter rack of lamb dinner.  Fried the delivered medium-rare pieces in butter.  Then, that brown thing you see is a walnut covered pastry, which I also fried in butter, and ate although only a fourth, with a glass of milk.

An important part of weight control is sleep.  Every night is an adventure for me.  I certainly won't take any pills. I regularly can first go to sleep within a few minutes.  However, I wake up to go to the bathroom.  Going back to sleep is a problem.  Sometimes this is easy, more times than not, difficult.  So I spend 9 hours in be trying to get 6-7 hours of good sleep.  A couple of times/month only 4-5 hours, but I then take a short afternoon nap.  While not ideal, good enough for now until I can come up with a better system.

I've tried things, like a sleep machine:

Whether it's set for rain or a bubbling brook or whatever, my mind thinks, wait a minute, that is all fake.  Did not work.  I'll have another posting on how to sleep when you can't.  Someday.  When I figure out a simple solution.

To say lose weight by reducing stress is kind of meaningless because you can't really control life around you.  But it is medically proven that high stress leads to weight gain.  So here are 16 ways to reduce stress.

Some meaningful aerobics also must be part of your plan.  In October I posted on the 7-Minute Exercise.  Must have hit a nerve because this was one of my most popular articles last year.  However, high intensity workouts are not great for weight loss.  Plus, all that jumping around is not good for seniors, as falling is a problem.

Yet, I needed to do something, so I found the 4-Second Workout, which is worse for weight loss, but ideal for integrating with weight training and a safe recumbent cross-trainer.  I eventually changed the seven repetitions for one minute of strenuous exercise followed by one minute of rest, for this routine is not made of old people.  I optimized to 30 seconds of intensity, followed by 90 seconds of rest, and this works a lot better.  I'll someday provide details.

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