Let me start with a summary of how the USA is doing with this pandemic. The following graphics from the New York Times this morning. We are next to the UK in vaccinations:
Why is Japan so laggard, and especially so with the Summer Olympics nearing? One key factor is that only 30% of citizens think these vaccines are safe!!!
New Deaths/Day are dropping and Cases/Day have reached a lower plateau in the U.S.:
Tomorrow I'll delve into the matter of communities, like Hawaii, needing to adjust targets to continue re-opening the economy. While the number of new cases/day has risen a bit, the new deaths/day and hospital occupancy rate are continuing to decrease. The matter of getting infected today is not necessarily a key factor because most of them are younger people who have one percent the morbidity of elders. Most of these older people have been vaccinated and are safe. The herd immunity percentage is increasing and the positivity, while still high, has become dismissible as a decision-making factor. The main factor should be deaths/day.
Joe Biden is doing well. One reason is that he is being compared to Donald Trump:
DATES | POLLSTER | GRADE | SAMPLE | WEIGHT | ADJUSTED | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
• | APR. 2-4 | Morning Consult | B | 2,200 | A | 0.58 | 57% | 37% | 56% | 40% | |
• | MAR. 31-APR. 4 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | B | 1,500 | LV | 1.33 | 47% | 51% | 50% | 44% | |
• | MAR. 31-APR. 3 | IBD/TIPP | A+ | 1,436 | A | 2.63 | 53% | 33% | 53% | 36% | |
• | MAR. 31-APR. 1 | Ipsos | B- | 1,005 | A | 0.86 | 54% | 41% | 53% | 42% | |
MAR. 28-30 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | B | 1,500 | LV | 0.64 | 49% | 49% | 52% | 42% | ||
How did Donald Trump do?
| GRADE | SAMPLE | WEIGHT | ADJUSTED | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JAN. 16-19 | YouGov | B | 1,500 | A | 0.76 | 42% | 53% | 43% | 55% | ||
JAN. 16-19 | American Research Group | B | 1,100 | A | 1.40 | 30% | 66% | 33% | 63% | ||
JAN. 15-19 | AtlasIntel | B/C | 5,188 | A | 1.48 | 45% | 54% | 43% | 54% | ||
JAN. 14-18 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | C+ | 1,500 | LV | 0.88 | 51% | 48% | 46% | 50% | ||
JAN. 15-17 | Morning Consult | B/C | 1,993 | RV | 0.08 | 39% | 58% | 39% | 59% | ||
It helps that your predecessor was a cheat, liar, misogynist, racist..... When those trials begin, the difference will only get wider.
The saving grace of Biden's legislative success has everything to do with both Georgia Democratic Senate candidates beating the Republican incumbents. You can again add the benefit of Trump's illegal activities. Now the U.S. Senate has a 50-50 split, which means a 51-50 majority because the president of the Senate is the vice-president of the USA.
That the Republican Georgia Legislature has responded so quickly to reduce this happening again could well trigger a backlash to hurt them in the future. The Major League Baseball has already pulled out of that state and several corporations are reducing their presence.
The problem with the U.S. Senate is something called the filibuster, which is a tactic that the minority party can use to stop any legislation, for this maneuver will be allowed unless 60 senators vote against it. There are murmurs of Democrats somehow weakening it.
But an arcane solution has apparently been found. It is called BUDGET RECONCILIATION. This is why the $2 trillion coronavirus recovery bill passed with no Republican support. Why didn't Republicans filibuster? It turns out that Senate rules allow at least one budget bill to annually pass with only a 51-50 margin. Biden did not need to bargain to lower the amount of the package because he knew he had the votes.
Not sure if this is the current point of allowance, but the Senate did not use Budget Reconciliation last year, which is the current path the White House could well be using for a second budget matter. This means Biden and the Senate can now pass the $2.3 trillion infrastructure act that will only grow before it becomes law on or around July 4th. Here is an attempt by Forbes to explain BR. You will find the concept to be something like a moving target as time goes on.
I'm still a little unclear about the details, but it has everything to do with the Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, who has suddenly become the most important person in that body of Congress. Only yesterday, MacDonough indicated that this BR path can be used multiple times. While she did rebuff Biden about including the $15/hour minimum wage in that first $2 trillion package, she is allowing use of BR for the $2.3 trillion budget matter.
- Voting Rights.
- Minimum Wage.
- Many Others.
In January, The Atlantic had an article entitled 7 Reasons Democrats Won't Pass a Green New Deal. Apparently, their judgement was that this type of legislation does not meet the Budget Reconciliation requirements. But that was more than two months ago, before MacDonough ruled rather broadly on this general issue.
Of course Republicans will make a big fuss and try to fire her. But she already was targeted for dismissal by a wide array of Democrats on her $15/hour minimum wage decision, and the White House and Senate leadership continued to support her. She is the Democrat's wild card, and has been in office since 2012.
I'll close with a cruise video to keep up the interest on this subject, for I still plan to begin a world cruise in January of 2022, and welcome people to join us. Did you know that the Titanic II is in construction, and plans on a maiden voyage from Dubai to New York next year, 110 years after the original sank? It will be identical, but upgraded for comfort and safety, with 2,435 passengers in 835 cabins. For one there will be sufficient capacity to handle everyone if it does sink.
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Tropical Cyclone Seroja left Australia and at Category 1 strength killed at least 150 in East Timor and southern Indonesia:
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