MIRACLE OF MIRACLES: Part 1

Before I get into miracles, something more on this pandemic:

I regularly show two graphs produced by the World Bank about COVID-19.  Their number of cases look high because they somehow include asymptomatic cases, still a relative unknown about how many there are.  Turns out that whether it's the seasonal flu or venereal disease or this mutating coronavirus, seems like they all have around 50% asymptomatic cases.

The number of world deaths from Worldometer is 1.85 million (USA 0.36 million).  From the World Bank (WB), 1.86 million (USA 0.34 million).  The WB shows deaths continuing to increase into April, no matter what happens:

For both the World and U.S., universal (95%) mask-wearing would make the most difference in reducing deaths.  This is not occurring.  The projected deaths are linked to rapid rollout of vaccination.  Easing of the economy significantly increases projected deaths (in millions):

                                     USA          World

Easing mandates         0.73              3.3

Current projection     0.57              2.9

Rapid rollout               0.55              2.8

Universal masks          0.52              2.6

In short, using the current projection expectation, from now to April 1, 211,000 Americans will die from this disease.  For the World, more than a million more lives.  This  takes into account the rapid rollout of vaccines.

A note of concern from The New York Times this morning:

The variants--this mutated form of COVID-19--already seem to have spread around much of the world. More than 30 other countries, including the U.S., have diagnosed cases with the variant first detected in Britain, which is known as B.1.1.7. Scientists say that it could soon become the dominant form of the virus.

As dangerous as this mutation might be, the current vaccines are expected to also remain efficacious against it.  If so, this would be a kind of miracle of miracles.

The first miracle was developing as many different varieties of vaccines so quickly.  The U.S. has the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna versions in current use, with Johnson&Johnson to follow next month.  The UK has rolled out their Oxford/AstraZeneca option.  Russia has Sputnik V, which is said to be more than 95% efficient with no important side-effects.  China will vaccinate 50 million with their Sinopharm vaccine before the beginning of the Lunar New Year holiday period.  India has approved its own, plus others.  The Wall Street Journal reports that 200 COVID-19 vaccines are in promising development.

Have you noticed all those lines throughout the nation?  The ones for food should diminish a bit when the recently passed and finally signed congressional package reaches people.

I also see lines for people wanting to get vaccinated.  I am particularly fortunate, for Walgreen's will be coming to 15 Craigside, and I have a 10AM appointment on Wednesday for my first Moderna shot.  I just hate any kind of injection, and keep seeing all those needles entering arms on TV.  At least that syringe looks smallish, and have yet to see anyone scream or even cringe.  Of course, if I were going to be on a worldwide news show, I would too look brave.

The third line has to do with voters in Georgia for the two senate runoffs.  President Donald Trump will be in that state tonight, and stay in safe Republican territory.  But how embarrassing:

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  In a phone call, President Trump pressured Georgia’s secretary of state to change the vote totals in the state to overturn his loss. “I just want to find 11,780 votes” Trump said. Georgia officials rebuffed Trump’s demands.

• The president suggested on the call that the Georgia officials could be prosecuted if they did not do his bidding. But it was Trump’s attempt at coercion that may have violated the law, lawyers told The Times.

The two Republican senatorial candidates have avoided commenting on this incident.  While I initially felt that they were shoo-ins, maybe not now.  Last week I reported that betting sites gave both a 60-40 edge to win.  Just reported a few hours ago from Oddschecker:

Warnock's (Democrat) odds are at 4-7, implying a 63.69 percent chance, while Loeffler's victory is priced at 13-10, with an implied probability of 43.48 percent.

The betting website has a Perdue (Republican) win at 11-13, with an implied probability of 54.05 percent. Ossoff is priced at 4-5, which a slighter higher implied probability of 55 percent. This is rather confusing.

According to FiveThirtyEight's average of head-to-head polls in Georgia, Ossoff and Warnock lead Loeffler and Perdue by around two percentage points each with just hours left until the polls open.

In the weighted average, Ossoff is supported by 49.2 percent of Georgia voters, while Perdue is backed by 47.4 percent. By comparison, Warnock is supported by 49.5 percent of voters, while Loeffler is backed by 47.2 percent.

Interestingly enough, there are 41% Republicans and 41% Democrats in Georgia, with 18% having no affiliation.  That middle group, I suspect, mostly leans Republican.  However,  they have some anti-Trumpers, which is why Biden earlier won.  Trump's presence today could have a negative effect on the final voting, sparked by that negligent phone call, and do more harm than good for the two Republican candidates.  Joe Biden too will be in Georgia today, and has to be cautious about how to play this matter, for he does not want to provoke more Republicans to vote tomorrow.  In any case, you can almost predict what will happen:  initial results tomorrow night will show both Republicans leading, but as the early voting ballots get tallied into Wednesday, there could well be a shift, as occurred on November 3/4.

In any case, if both Democrats prevail, that would be two more miracles...for then, both houses of Congress and the White House would be run by that party, and Biden will be a lot more productive.  However, if at least one of the two is Republican, Mitch McConnell remains Majority Leader, and nothing good will happen for Biden.  Yet, in 2022, 34 senators will be up for re-election, and of that group 13 are Democrats and 20 are Republicans.  Thus, the Democrats have a second chance to gain control of the Senate.  Of course, all House seats will also be up, and the party not in the White House generally tends to do better, so the House could, too, shift.  Life is so complicated.

So on to the next miracle.  The final eviction of Donald Trump.  I have a low standard on miracles.  It is evident he is warped and delusional.  Just look at what he's done after November 3.  I've long felt that his Hail Mary would be to get his Department of Defense (after all, he is Commander in Chief), to support him in just taking over the government if everything else fails.  That discharge of Secretary of Defense Mark Esper had a cover story, which had something to do with the Middle East.  His real purpose was to join the President for Life Club and become like Putin, Kim and Xi.

Well, the Washington Post, headed by Trump's nemesis, Jeff Bezos, one-upped the President again.  Not only did they leak that Trump to Georgia phone call, they also yesterday posted an op-ed co-authored by ALL 10 living former secretaries of defense:  cautioning against any move to involve the military in pursuing claims of election fraud, arguing that it would take the country into “dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory."

The 10 former Pentagon leaders also warned in their Post article of the dangers of impeding a full and smooth transition at Defense Department prior to Inauguration Day as part of a transfer to power to President-elect Joe Biden. Biden has complained of efforts by Trump-appointed Pentagon officials to obstruct the transition.

Tomorrow, Part 2 of Miracle of Miracles.  A totally different one.  Today, let me end with Hallelujah, one of the more incredible songs ever that just missed my 100 favorite list.  Written in 1984 by Canadian singer Leonard Cohen, it went nowhere.  Seven years later, John Cale released a version that also mostly died.  

However, Jeff Buckley got interested in 1994.  Nothing.  But in 2004 Rolling Stone ranked it #259 in its 500 Greatest Songs of All Time.  Ten years after Buckley's death, in 2007, a single was released.  This version is now being hailed by some as the greatest song of all time.  In any case, for the past 14 years this tune has continued to spread around the world, made more popular by this pandemic.  It has been covered by more than 300 artists.  The Ten Tenors, Andrea Bocelli, and Pentatonix.  Finally, just sent to me, by Danielle Vitale and Karulina Protsenko.

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