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DONALD TRUMP IS RUINING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

 From Worldometer (new deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732        1185        246        82
July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120       572
Aug    12     1504      6556        1242       835       130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136      1168        82
Oct      21     1225       6849         571       703       85
Nov    25      2304    12025         620       518      118
Dec     30      3880    14748      1224       299      465
Jan        7       4207     14812      1455       234      441
              8       3914    14792      1044        229      616
            12       4259    15711       1109        200      755
            13       4103    16423      1283        201      806

Summary:  Worst ever day for the World.  If the whole of Africa shows continued increase, the peak is yet to come.  The five highest days of new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have occurred this year.  However, on January 20, when Joe Biden is inaugurated, I would expect the number of new deaths in the country to be lower.  It might still be higher than 4259 tomorrow, but the holiday effect should relent by next week.  Then, I hope, the vaccinations will begin to lower that number into the future.

If you watch cable news channels, talking heads keep missing the point as to why political leaders like Mitch McConnell make decisions, or why Trump supporters not see the light that their guy is a dastard...and bastard.  They point to conscience or the Constitution or doing the right thing.  Any decisions on whether to convict Donald Trump or not will be based on positioning a party or candidates in November of 2022 as a first priority, then 2024.  Any course of action taken by both parties will be predicated on how to accomplish these goals.  So of course Democrats will find some time over the next few months to go through a "fair" conviction trial, attempting to taint as many Republicans as they can.

  • Donald Trump, even after what happened to the Capitol on January 6, remains popular with his base. 
    • Of all the voters in the USA, 30% still support him.   Why?  Read my posting of yesterday. These are largely Republicans and Independents.
    • They are mostly  less-educated whites, with growing Hispanic numbers.
  • A recent Gallup poll showed that, as of December 2020, in the U.S.:
    • 25% are Republicans
    • 41% are Independents (quite a number of Trump adherents come from here)
    • 31% are Democrats (some Trumpers were once here)
  • Note that there are now fewer Republicans, the same number of Independents and more Democrats today compared to a year ago.  In December of 
    • 2019 it was 28% R,  41% I and 28% D
    • 2016            28% R  39% I        29% D
    • 2012            27% R  36% I        34% D
    • 2008            26% R  35% I        37% D
    • 2004            33% R  30% I        35% D
  • Those inclined to vote Republican or Democratic in December of
    • 2020                        39%                50%
    • 2016                         43%               48%
    • 2012                         39%               47%
    • 2008                         39%               52%
    • 2004                         48%               45%
What those numbers mean is that Donald Trump has a special following.  Surely Republicans and even Democrats are now trying to figure out how to make him less popular.  No matter what they do, he is ruining the Republican party, a situation that will be maximized by Democrats.  But how?
  • Will conviction after impeachment weaken or strengthen his base?
  • How will his base react if Trump is prevented from running in 2024?
  • How the Republican and Democratic leadership proceed will depend on how they think these efforts will help or hurt their candidates in 2022.
  • Republicans have a tough task ahead.
The Democrats made a decision that a second impeachment was warranted, and that their future candidates would benefit from this decision.  Many Republicans continued to support Trump for the simple reason that they couldn't afford to alienate his supporters in their home state.  For example, if in a primary, you count only Republican votes, and the Trump-support votes remain at 30%, this means that they will represent 60% of the Republican votes.  If you run as a Republican and they know you sabotaged Trump in some way, you will automatically lose to another more neutral Republican candidate.

This means that in 2022, Democrats will have an advantage, for several Republican House members who voted for impeachment or conviction and running for re-election could well lose to another Republican.  Thus, the Democrat in the General Election will not have to run against an incumbent.  Just on this analysis, it appears that the Democrats will continue to hold on to the House of Representatives.  The Independent voter remains a wild card, but not as much as in previous election cycles.

Democrats should also strengthen their position in the Senate because 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans will be running in 2022.  This same thinking will no doubt further weaken some Republican incumbents.  Looks like Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have it made for the next four years.  Maya Rudolph and Jim Carrey will have a lot of fun.  Here they are just after Biden was confirmed by networks.  Ah, but will there be another Sean Spicer?

THUS, DONALD TRUMP WILL HAVE A HUGE EFFECT ON FUTURE ELECTIONS, whether he runs or not in 2024.  He will be able to highly influence Republican policies even if gets convicted by the Senate or in State courts.  His support could largely prevail even if he ends up in jail.  That is the nature of Trump supporters.  This is the meme that controls his voters.  Logic, common sense, and the usual checks on decision-making are cast aside like in a cult or religion.  For four years, Donald Trump was running the Republican Party.  For the next four years he will be RUINING the Republican Party.

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