EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COVID-19 VACCINES

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732        1185        246        82

July    22     1205     7128        1293      1120       572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835       130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136      1168        82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571       703        85

Nov    25     2304    12025        620       518      118

Dec    30     3880    14748      1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512       1151         189      712          

          19       2804    14760      1183        161     839    

          20      4385    17350      1382        152     566

          21       4363    16578      1335        161     647

          26       4045   15879      1206        127     680

          27       3916    16873      1319        134     753

Summary:  According to The New York Times this morning:

New cases in the U.S. have fallen 35 percent over the past three weeks. Hospitalizations have dropped, as well. Deaths have not, but they have stabilized — and the death trend typically lags the cases trend by a few weeks.

Further from TNYT:

We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.

This is the first time in a long time that I've seen some indication of asymptomaticity.  The above statement means that if the TNYT is right, the asymptomatic rate of COVID-10 is 75%, not the 40%, long bandied about by the CDC and Dr. Anthony Fauci.  75% makes sense, as the 2% death rate shown for the world (as of yesterday, 2,182,570 deaths from 101,416,665 cases) should really be 0.5%, pretty much exactly what I have been predicting from the early summer.  0.5% is five times more deadly than the seasonal flu, which has a morbidity of 0.1%.  If you contract this COVID-19, then the odds of your recovery are 199 out of 200.  

Of course, that is the average.  Older people with pre-conditions will not be be so fortunate.  Compared to 18-29 year olds:

• 85 and older   630 times higher
• 75-84              220 times higher
• 65-74                90 times higher
• 50-64                30 times higher

The fearsome statistic is that 39% of all deaths have occurred in nursing homes and similar extended care facilities, where only around 1% of the population lives.  While a case can morbidly be made that this group will soon die anyway, this is nevertheless why they are the ones first getting the vaccination.  Also at the top tier are first-line health workers.  This is more a reward than anything else, for they are around 18% of national population, but represent only 0.5% of all the deaths.  A well-protected hospital worker is less prone to die than a person on the street.  But I'd hate to have such a job, with a need to go to work daily to uncomfortably face those conditions.

Here is the latest tally about vaccines:

• Currently, there are 78 candidate vaccines.
• Today, there are 20 candidate vaccines in stage 3 clinical trials.
• So far, 11 vaccines have been authorized across several countries.

A site you can view if you are old and wondering when you will be getting your vaccination.  The problem is that the Federal government never did quite indicate an exact definition of age.  This depends on your state, and also your county.  I'm particularly interested in the Moderna version, because that is the one I got:

According to a Moderna press release, their COVID-19 vaccine is still effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variants, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, which scientists first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa, respectively. However, the vaccine had a significantly reduced antibody response to the latter.  (So perhaps I should not stop in Africa on my planned global journey.)

The researchers used sera from individuals who had received the Moderna vaccine, and they found no significant impact on antibody response to the B.1.1.7 variant. Although there was a six-fold reduction in antibody response to the B.1.351 variant, the press release explains that the antibodies “remain above levels that we expect to be protective.”

Other issues:

• Moderna is already testing a booster vaccine candidate that specifically targets the spike proteins of the B.1.351 variant.  Thus, I should inquire about a booster sometime later this year.  Next week I'm scheduled to take my second Moderna vaccine.

• 
  A summary of what to know about these mutated organisms.
• Is the Pfizer vaccine killing too many over the age of 80?  Still being investigated, but Norway reports that, on a percentage basis, the deaths are not significantly abnormal.  China jumped on this possibility and called to suspend it.

• 
  President Joe Biden announced he will invoke the Defense Production Act to insure that herd immunity prevails by this coming Fall.

• 
  Both AstraZeneca and Pfizer are having production difficulties.
• Further, there is controversy about the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine for older people.

• There seems to be a growing sense that you should NOT take over-the-counter pain relievers like Tylenol or Advil before taking the vaccination to avoid after effects.  Why?  You could be retarding the vaccine from working.

Back in October, in a world survey, 71.5% of participants reported they would likely take the vaccine, ranging from 90% in China to 55% in Russia to 54% in France.  In December, Pew indicated the U.S. confidence at 60%.  

A more recent report said:

• 47% of Americans are hesitant (meaning 53% confidence).
• By ethnicity:
• 53% are Black
• 50% are Latin
• 48% are of other ethnicities
• 38% are White (confidence of 62%)

At 15 Craigside, where I live, participation was as follows:

• 95% of residents.
• 77% of employees.

There seems to be some mistrust by the staff, and the reason could be related to ethnicity.  Many of them have roots in the Philippines.  In other nursing homes, this worker rate confidence loomed as low as 30%.  In Chicago a cash bonus of $150 was offered to employees of seniors' centers.  A Texas health system is providing $500.

So if President Biden succeeds in making available sufficient vaccines by the end of the summer, how can he get 70% or more to actually comply?  The fate of schools re-opening and spectators for fall sports will be directly affected.

• 
  Over the next few months provide incentives and disincentives:
• Can't enter a federal facility unless you show a card indicating you took the necessary number of shots.  That image to the right should show the COVID-19 symbol.
• Work with states to similarly apply the concept to public transport and indoor/outdoor sites.

• 
  Encourage airlines and cruise lines to require a travel passport showing compliance with vaccination requirements.
• Then there is business-at-large, like that Chicago bar offering a $10 gift card to those who show proof of inoculation.

• 
  If the percentage remains below 60% by August, then, perhaps, a monetary incentive can be considered.  Two months ago, John Delaney, a former presidential candidate, proposed giving people a $1500 stimulus check.  Some economists have said that a third of a trillion dollars to insure for herd immunity will be worth the cost.
• 
  Would Joe Biden instead make taking the vaccination mandatory, on threat of fine or jail?  Almost surely not.  Putin perhaps, or Kim, or Xi.  Donald Trump might well have discouraged vaccinations.

A final item, what about the full opening of schools?  

As of Wednesday, about a third of all students in the United States have not had any in-person education since March, a situation repeated across the world.

Chances are this will largely happen in the next school year, beginning August.

As calls for schools to reopen grow louder across the country, many teachers are saying: vaccinate us first.   

If the Johnson&Johnson vaccine is available in abundance by mid-summer, that could be a viable option, for only one shot is necessary.

On 10 December 2020 I posted:

THE AMAZING STORY OF THE LEADING COVID-19 VACCINES

Finally, the media caught up, for the cover of the latest TIME shows Ugar Sahin and Ozlem Tureci, co-founders of BioNTech, who personally developed and helped inspire the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  They both have Turkish roots, and the story of their life deserved to be told.

In the meantime, keep wearing a mask, maintain social distancing and all those other bits of advice you are by now no doubt sick of hearing.  Here is something sent to me six months ago that still prevails:

One of the recommendations is to drink a lot of water.  This video explains why.

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