REPUBLICANS ARE FINDING A NOVEL WAY TO DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY

On 6 January 2001 then president Donald Trump clearly attempted to overthrow our Democracy.  The effort was inept, but still criminal.  In hindsight, after all 10 living former Department of Defense secretaries published in the  Sunday, 3January2021, issue of the Washington Post a public letter, declaring that the U.S. presidential election was over, Trump should have realized that without the Department of Defense, there was no hope for a successful coup.

The letter – signed by Dick Cheney, James Mattis, Mark Esper, Leon Panetta, Donald Rumsfeld, William Cohen, Chuck Hagel, Robert Gates, William Perry and Ashton Carter – amounts to a remarkable show of force against Trump’s subversion efforts just days before Congress is set to count Electoral College votes.

Watch William Cohen explain on CNN their motivation for this extraordinary action.

Okay, that was one Republican effort to destroy our Democracy, although I would argue that the culprit was Donald Trump, not the entire party.  But this second attempt is purely the GOP committing this act.  

What are they doing?  They are comprehensively and inadvertently destroying the two-party system, which has worked well in insuring for checks and balances.  They are self-destructing!

The Republican Party does not know what to do about Donald Trump.  Simple as that.

• More than 50% of this party seem to strongly support Trump, and anything anyone tries to do to hurt their Man incurs wrath.

• 
  Look above at the current slate of GOP presidential contenders.  Trump at 55%, DeSantis 14%, Ramaswamy 7% and not much else.  Chances are that if everyone drops out DeSantis will only end up with 40% at most, which means that he would have no chance of replacing Trump at 60%, and probably higher.
• Democrats are of course euphoric about what is happening

• 
  Then again, there are more than 400 days until 5 November 2024, and a lot can still happen.
• A splinter group is attempting to prove a constitutional case that Trump can't run.  Going nowhere.

• 
  All those court cases should maim Trump between now and the 2024 presidential election, but Democrats are going easy on these trials so Republicans can select Trump on 18 July 2024 as their candidate.  Then after that date, put on a full court press to send him to jail.

• 
  If you peruse the FiveThirtyEight summary of 6 polls conducted this month, Trump's advantage over DeSantis ranges from +36 to +50.
• All those indictments, if anything, have strengthened Trump's position.
• But guilty verdicts will in time crucify him.

• 
  The key are Independents.
• In May of this Year.
• Independents 38%
• Republicans 30%
• Democrats 29%
• In August
• Independents 47%
• Republicans  25%
• Democrats 26%
• In May
• Republicans/Republican leaners  46%
• Democrats/Democratic leaners    43%
• In August
• Republican/Republican leaners   42%
• Democrats/Democratic leaners    44%
• There has been a perceivable shift toward Democrats.
• Democrats dream that these court cases will enhance this movement.
• 
  Yet, a strong third party can significantly affect any close election.
• If Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat runs, he will very adversely affect Biden.
• If former Congresspeople Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger form a third party, Trump will get hurt.
• If either gets seriously ill that will change the scene.  Biden is 80 and Trump is 77.  If either one gets elected, he will be the oldest person ever elected to the White House!
• Republicans have a range of quasi-viable candidates if Trump disappears.
• 
  Democrats have, really, no one.  Kamala Harris is 58, Michelle Obama 59, Gavin Newsom 55, Hillary Clinton 75 and Al Gore 74.  The messed up Republican Party, however, will mean that any one of them should prevail on 5November2023.  Michelle Obama is best if she chooses to run.

The most probable outcome, however, is Trump vs Biden in 2024.  Should that occur, the White House will remain Democratic, and so will the Senate, and almost surely the House, too.  It will be a landslide, and we will lose our Democracy.  However, within 4 years the Republicans will recover, so, while they are indeed self-destructing today, I don't think Democracy will be threatened.

There are three ocean storms in the Atlantic.  Hurricane Lee has weakened to 80 MPH, with an eye that should pass east of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, then a slight right turn through mostly unpopulated areas of New Brunswick.

Hurricane Margot just weakened into a tropical storm, and is still going around in a large circle in the middle of the Atlantic.

Perhaps the most threatening of all is Tropical Depression Fifteen, now only at 40 MPH, but models show a strengthening to at least 100 MPH by this coming Tuesday, with a still unknown ultimate path.  But it certainly looks like its headed for New York.  Surely, though, there should be a right turn to the north.  Too early to tell for sure.

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