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IS IT SAFE TO GO ON A CRUISE?

          From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839        279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543        315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186         458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148        285      140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335        173        28 
         11        1022      6002         465           88       28
         18          721      5214         380           69       39
         24          649     5008        300           82       33
         31          676      4287         276           28       44
Apr     1          439      4056         290           52       12
           7          409      3554         253           44         5
          14         331       3383         158            21        16
          15         361       3369         145             5          6
          21         299      3347           86           54       65 
          27         311       2703          224          39         3

Summary:
  • The U.S. had the most deaths yesterday with 311.
    • #2  UK  304
    • #3  Germany 245
    • #4  Brazil 224
    • #5  Italy 186
    • #6  Russia 163
    • #13  China 48
  • China also had 1824 new cases, #24 in the world, compared to #1 Germany with 124,863, #2 Italy with 88,770 and #5 USA with 57,738.
    • Germany checks incoming travelers, but has pretty much loosened all restrictions within the country.
    • In the U.S. there are spotty restrictions in a few states, but no lockdowns, where states are free to set their own rules.
    • China, however, is getting even more cautious, and 168 million in 27 cities, especially Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, are in some phase of lockdown. 
      • That 1824 new cases shown above is misleading, as Shanghai itself gets upwards of 10,000 new cases/day.
      • China only reports COVID-19 cases where symptoms are somewhat serious.
      • They've pretty much tested everyone in Shanghai, and there was a week when the seven-day average showed that 98.4% were asymptomatic.
      • Medical specialists say that this high asymptomaticity is because of the low pathogenicity of the Omicron variant and a high vaccination rate.
    • While most data centers show that 25% of Americans have been infected by this pandemic virus, the latest data shows that it should be 60%.   This is because of the prevalence of asymptomatic cases.
      • Children seem to avoid symptoms, and are rarely tested.  A big surprise is that 75% of this younger group have been infected.
      • Unvaccinated children are much more prone to severe symptoms and death.  Thus there is good reason for the imminent approval of Moderna's vaccine for children younger than 6.  I guess a good question, though, is whether children should first be tested to determine their immunity status because of having previously caught this virus.
When first announced two years ago, the CDC assigned colors for cruise ships to show safety:  green (no cases), yellow (not known and awaiting tests) and red (confirmed cases).  Cruise lines must have complained, for the CDC added orange, which is here explained:

The Ruby Princess sailed from San Francisco to Honolulu and back to San Francisco, docking on April 11.  There were 143 confirmed COVID-19 cases.   The scary thing is that 100% of crew and passengers were vaccinated.  Nothing stated about prevalence of boosters.  The good news is that symptoms were mild and ONLY ONE was hospitalized.  This a follow-up to a previous cruise from SFO to Panama in late March, where 70 cases were found on this same ship.  Two years ago the Ruby Princess was allowed to dock in Sydney and spread this infection to Australia.

So should you avoid Princess cruises?  Well, the CDC is investigating outbreaks on more than a dozen Royal Caribbean cruise ships and more than a dozen Norwegian Cruise Line ships, among the 53 ships with COVID-19 outbreaks!!!

Further, note that the Ruby Princess has been in the Orange category from the beginning, which was on April 7.  There are 2200 passengers at full capacity and 900 crew members. Thus 5% of passengers/crew were infected.  According to the above chart, anything higher than 0.3% should elicit a red rating.  Perhaps this color will show next week.

Going on a cruise?  Click here to check the safety status of your ship.  Provided by Cruzely, given the above situation, there are no Red-rated ships.  Hmmm....

On April 26 The Ruby Princess was still given an orange rating.

If you can't read the above, click on THIS.  Note that the percent of NON-GREEN ships ranged from 74% to 78% during the period from April 13 to 26.

So is it safe to go on cruise today?  

  • For one, the CDC has completely removed its Travel Health Notice for cruising.  
  • But too many actual COVID-19 cases are appearing on most cruise ships.  
  • Yet, the Royal Caribben Group have had 1.3 million passengers and 2500 cases, or 0.2% infection rate, good for a overall orange rating.  
  • Also too, most new cases are asymptomatic, and as best as I can determine, there have been only a few hospitalizations and no deaths.  
  • Per capita COVID-19 cases are LOWER on cruise ships than on land.  The problem in your community is that there surely must be infections occurring in sports and entertainment venues.  Mask mandates can be enforced on ships, something most states are abandoning.
  • Cruise lines should raise their vaccination requirement to at least one booster, and maybe even two, for all passengers and crew.  This will significantly drop the potential market, so don't look for this occurring anytime soon.  
  • Thus, is it safe to go on a cruise?  If you have had your second booster and don't have a pre-condition, seems safe enough, for apparently cruise ships might actually be safer than not.  If you are immunocompromised or suffer from a weakened immune system, you need to be especially careful, on a ship or on land.
The NFL draft begins at 8PM (EDT), or 2PM in Hawaii, today.  
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have the first choice, and they are expect to select a defensive end, Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson, Georgia's Travon Walker or Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux.
  • Quarterbacks have been the #1 pick in six of the previous seven drafts.  The exception was defensive end Myles Garrett in 2017 by the Cleveland Browns.  He is currently ranked as the #16 best player in the NFL.
  • The last time a QB was not picked in the top 10 was in 2013 when the Buffalo Bills selected EJ Manuel at #16.  He was a bust.
  • While no QB was selected in the first round in 1996, this could well happen again this year.  The top QB prospect this year is a relative unknown, Kenny Pickett of Pittsburg.  If not him, then perhaps Malik Willis of Liberty.
The oldest person in world Kane Tanaka passed away at the age of 119.  
Here she is at the age of 32 in 1935 (bottom row, middle).
The new oldest person is Sister Andre (Lucile Randon) of France, who is 118 years old.
She was born in 1904 and lived through the 1918 Spanish Flu.  However, on 16January2021 she tested positive for COVID-19.  Has an active mind.

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