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IS THIS PANDEMIC GETTING WORSE...OR SOON TO BECOME SPOTTY EPIDEMICS?

         From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839        279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543        315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186         458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148        285      140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335        173        28 
         11        1022      6002         465           88       28
         18          721      5214         380           69       39
         24          649     5008        300           82       33
         31          676      4287         276           28       44
Apr     1          439      4056         290           52       12
           7          409      3554         253           44         5
          14         331       3383         158            21        16
          15         361       3369         145             5          6
          20         408      3278         204           56       16

Summary:
  • Just when you thought this pandemic was close to becoming only spotty epidemics, a final, hopefully, resurgence of COVID-19 orchestrated by a variety of Omicron BA.2 subvariants.
  • Europe is suffering the most new deaths.  The USA was #2 in new deaths yesterday with 408.
    • #1  UK  508
    • #3  Germany  361
    • #4  France  227
    • #5  Italy  205
  • A lot of new cases lately (new cases/million population).  Incredibly, Europe is OPEN to foreign tourists, and visitor numbers are actually increasing!
    • #1  Germany  187,233 (2221)
    • #2  France  155,711 (2377)
    • #3  S. Korea  111,289  (2169)
    • #4  Italy  100,823 (1672)
    • #5  Australia  51,325 (1974)
    • #6  USA  46,565 (139):  Note that per capita, we remain quite low in new cases, almost twenty times lower than much of Europe.  We allow foreign tourists who are vaccinated.
    • #7  Japan  37,631 (299):  More than the double that of the U.S., but seven times lower/capita than many European countries.  Foreign tourists are still prohibited from visiting Japan.

Well, finally, the Justice Department today appealed that ruling from the Trump Florida judge on striking down the Federal mask mandate.  Why they did not do this immediately is just another example of wishy-washy decision-making, as just during these couple of days, airlines and other travel partners already made mask-wearing optional.  All so unnecessarily confusing.  If airline personnel had trouble enforcing this mandate before, it will now be even more of a problem.  Dumb!  Dumb!  Dumb!  Dumb!  What's wrong with the White House???

The latest on those Omicron subvariants:

  • BA.2 is now the dominant strain infecting everyone around the world.
  • But now there is also sublineage BA.2.12.1, which is increasing the most.
  • Plus there is that transitional BA.2.12 that is in the mix.
  • All of them cause the same symptoms of a bad cold, which is a heck of a lot better that the earlier ones with respiratory and taste/smell ailments, and also had a much higher mortality factor.
  • Monoclonal antibodies need to be adjusted
  • There is a sense that we should stop worrying about future subvariants because herd immunity has been attained through vaccinations and cured infections.
  • Interesting point is that those who were asymptomatic might only be mildly protected for a short period, while those who got seriously ill might be safe for a year.
  • While boosters help, there is continued debate about younger and healthier individuals to take that step.  I get my second booster on Monday.
  • At-home tests are sensitive to 85% of Delta infections and 80% to Omicron.

The World Health Organization speculates that fifteen million people have died of COVID-19 in the World. India is stalling attempts to make the total public because it shows they are woefully undercounting.  This is 2.5 times higher than the 6.2 million deaths from Worldometer.

Then just today the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington reported that the true death total is THREE times what was reported at the end of last year.  Instead of 5.94 million, the estimated deaths should be 18.2 million.  The worst three were:

  • India  4.07 million.
  • U.S.  1.13 million.
  • Russia  1.07 million.

So what is the conclusion?  A lot more COVID-19 cases and deaths than have been reported.  All signs, though, point to an end of this pandemic this year, and as early as mid-summer when actual deaths fall close to that of a flu season.  How near are we today?

  • A 2017 study indicated 290,000 - 650,000/year annually die from influenza.
  • COVID-19 seems to be now settling at around 3,000/day.  Multiplied by 365, deaths/year at this rate would be 1.1 million.
  • When this deaths/day total drops to 1500, the equivalent annual death amount would be 548,000.
  • I would speculate that this daily total should be reached in a couple months, if not earlier.
  • The question is what deaths/day will the World Health Organization, a particularly cautious agency, will use to call off the pandemic.

Queen Elizabeth II turned 96 yesterday.  A belated happy birthday.

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