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DEMOCRACY VERSUS PUTIN IN FRANCE

In one corner we have incumbent President of France Emmanuel Macron and in the other, Marine Le Pen, buddy of Vladimir Putin, and threat to destroy democracy and the European Union.  Is the free world in danger?

Well, I don't think so.  While Pen is supposedly in a stronger position today than she was when she ran against Macron in 2017, the Ukraine War essentially destroyed her chances.  Not too many Putin fans in France.  Further, Macron won the 2.5 hours presidential debate held on May 3, 63% to 34%.  

  • Macron is still only 39 years old, and Pen is 48.
  • Her father was founder of the National Front (her supporting party) and regularly tried to become president since 1974.  They are anti-Muslim and said to be creepily fascists.  However, she expelled her father from his party in 2015 for carrying extreme views.
Recent polls showed Macron only slightly ahead.  The yellow vesters and rural people like her, and there is a cost of living crisis.

However, for you democracy supporters, French bookmakers three days ago saw Macron easily winning the runoff tomorrow.  How easily?  90% probability!  More specifically, from three websites:  90.9%, 92.6% and 94.1%.  This was just before their debate.
However, in 2016, on the day of the UK vote to stay or not in the European Union, oddsmakers said the remain in the EU had an 88.5% of winning!  How wrong they were.
Yet, Sports Daily yesterday, after the debate, said Macron would win with an implied probability of 97.1%.  The over/under margin of victory is 12.5%.

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