Skip to main content

WHAT IS THE ASYMPTOMATIC RATE OF COVID-19?

     From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):


        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82
July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142    15512         1151        189       712              
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
          25       2414    10578        1582        119      144
Mar     2        1989      9490       1726       110      194
          31       1115      12301        3950       458       58
April   6         906     11787         4211        631       37
May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 
         26         607     12348         2399     3842     101
June    1        287     10637         2346      3205      95
            2        514     10984         2394      2899    110
            9        401     10240         2693      2213    120
          16        434       9497         2673      1411      136
          23        326       8704        2343        978    166        
          29        294       7660         1917        816    226
          30        249       8505         2127       991    383
Summary:
  • The U.S. is looking better.
  • The World and India have plateaued, which is better than being on a rise.
  • Country ranking today of new cases:
    • #1  India  
    • #2  Brazil
    • #3  Colombia
    • #4  UK
    • #5  Argentina
    • #6  Indonesia
    • #7  Russia
    • #8  South Africa
    • #9  USA
  • The mortality rate is 2.2%.  Thus in ten days or so:
    • India will continue to have around 1000 deaths/day.
    • Brazil will drop by a factor of two to 1000 deaths/day.
    • The U.S. will increase a bit to 300/day.
  • Of course, the mortality rate depends on age.
  • 39% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. occurred in nursing homes.  Click on that graphic to read the details.
  • But what is the asymptomatic rate? 
    • The mortality rate could be as low as 0.5% if the asymptomatic rate is 80%.
    • However, both the CDC and South Korea believe this rate is 30%.
    • Way back in November, Nature reported early studies shows that this rate was as high as 81%, but more recent meta-analysis indicated 17%.
    • Anthony Fauci says 40-45%, and we might not know this rate until later in the summer.
    • The bottom line is that medical experts do not really know what is the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19.
Can asymptomatic cases spread the disease?  At this time, the CDC speculates that 75% of asymptomatic cases are infectious.  And in case you did not know, asymptomatic individuals are afflicted, but show no symptoms.

It depends on the individual, but a COVID-19 patient is infectious for from 10-20 days.  Worse, this individual can spread the disease two days before showing any symptoms.

Here is something to scare you: 66% of venereal disease cases are asymptomatic.  This means that two-thirds of them so afflicted are capable of infecting you even if they show no symptoms!

The seasonal flu has been around forever, so you would think that medical science knows the range of asymptomatic cases depending on the season?  Nope.  However, the field has guessed that the asymptomatic rate of the flu is 50%.  Again, this is the group that most likely spreads the disease.  The ones who are sick stay at home and later warn you by coughing.

Even for the common cold, there is little consensus.  One study indicated that 60.5% of those afflicted with the rhinovirus are asymptomatic.  

On these bases, you would thus surmise that the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19 must be higher than 50%.  And if the ongoing studies cited by Dr. Fauci come to any kind of conclusion, we might know the asymptomatic rate of this disease by September.

I have been selected to exhibit my photos this month at 15 Craigside.  I am featuring the best of my around the world trips, and provide info on the Island Princess world cruise departing Los Angeles for 111 days beginning on 19January2022.  You, too, can sail the globe.  Alas, I look at my photos and can see that mine can't compare with the following:

-

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota.  Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north.  Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge.  If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic.  Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing.  The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University.  Caught a bus. Was called the  Century 21 Exposition .  Also the Seattle World's Fair.  10 million joined me on a six-month run.  My first. These a...
Post a Comment
Read more

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases.  Very few are aware that a new one,   BA.4.6,  is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples .  However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6.  Here is a  reference  as to what this means.  A series of two injections is involved.  Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab  co-packaged with  cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on  subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicio...
Post a Comment
Read more

IS FLORIDA AGAIN THREATENED BY A MEGA TSUNAMI FROM LA PALMA?

 From the morning  New York Times : Here is a graph comparing average daily COVID-19 deaths/100,000 people, and the USA is doing something really wrong: The difference between our country and Europe is that we have flubbed the availability of cheap and ubiquitous at-home RAPID testing.  They have covered this base. There are two obvious problems: The FDA is much too bureaucratic about quickly approving anything related to this pandemic, including testing. We seem stuck with the test that takes one to several days to get your result. The good news is that the Biden administration has finally realized this problem and through executive order hope to soon flood the market with take home testing that at first will be subsidized to make it affordable. Now, on to getting everyone vaccinated, especially 5-11 years olds ( and we are close to getting to making this happen ), the undereducated and Republicans.  What to do about the latter two? The other concern is whether we a...
Post a Comment
Read more