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WHAT IS THE ASYMPTOMATIC RATE OF COVID-19?

     From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):


        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82
July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142    15512         1151        189       712              
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
          25       2414    10578        1582        119      144
Mar     2        1989      9490       1726       110      194
          31       1115      12301        3950       458       58
April   6         906     11787         4211        631       37
May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 
         26         607     12348         2399     3842     101
June    1        287     10637         2346      3205      95
            2        514     10984         2394      2899    110
            9        401     10240         2693      2213    120
          16        434       9497         2673      1411      136
          23        326       8704        2343        978    166        
          29        294       7660         1917        816    226
          30        249       8505         2127       991    383
Summary:
  • The U.S. is looking better.
  • The World and India have plateaued, which is better than being on a rise.
  • Country ranking today of new cases:
    • #1  India  
    • #2  Brazil
    • #3  Colombia
    • #4  UK
    • #5  Argentina
    • #6  Indonesia
    • #7  Russia
    • #8  South Africa
    • #9  USA
  • The mortality rate is 2.2%.  Thus in ten days or so:
    • India will continue to have around 1000 deaths/day.
    • Brazil will drop by a factor of two to 1000 deaths/day.
    • The U.S. will increase a bit to 300/day.
  • Of course, the mortality rate depends on age.
  • 39% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. occurred in nursing homes.  Click on that graphic to read the details.
  • But what is the asymptomatic rate? 
    • The mortality rate could be as low as 0.5% if the asymptomatic rate is 80%.
    • However, both the CDC and South Korea believe this rate is 30%.
    • Way back in November, Nature reported early studies shows that this rate was as high as 81%, but more recent meta-analysis indicated 17%.
    • Anthony Fauci says 40-45%, and we might not know this rate until later in the summer.
    • The bottom line is that medical experts do not really know what is the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19.
Can asymptomatic cases spread the disease?  At this time, the CDC speculates that 75% of asymptomatic cases are infectious.  And in case you did not know, asymptomatic individuals are afflicted, but show no symptoms.

It depends on the individual, but a COVID-19 patient is infectious for from 10-20 days.  Worse, this individual can spread the disease two days before showing any symptoms.

Here is something to scare you: 66% of venereal disease cases are asymptomatic.  This means that two-thirds of them so afflicted are capable of infecting you even if they show no symptoms!

The seasonal flu has been around forever, so you would think that medical science knows the range of asymptomatic cases depending on the season?  Nope.  However, the field has guessed that the asymptomatic rate of the flu is 50%.  Again, this is the group that most likely spreads the disease.  The ones who are sick stay at home and later warn you by coughing.

Even for the common cold, there is little consensus.  One study indicated that 60.5% of those afflicted with the rhinovirus are asymptomatic.  

On these bases, you would thus surmise that the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19 must be higher than 50%.  And if the ongoing studies cited by Dr. Fauci come to any kind of conclusion, we might know the asymptomatic rate of this disease by September.

I have been selected to exhibit my photos this month at 15 Craigside.  I am featuring the best of my around the world trips, and provide info on the Island Princess world cruise departing Los Angeles for 111 days beginning on 19January2022.  You, too, can sail the globe.  Alas, I look at my photos and can see that mine can't compare with the following:

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