WHAT IS THE ASYMPTOMATIC RATE OF COVID-19?

From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa

June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82

July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572

Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130

Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82

Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85

Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118

Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465

Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712

Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398

25 2414 10578 1582 119 144

Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194

31 1115 12301 3950 458 58

April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37

May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59

26 607 12348 2399 3842 101

June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95

2 514 10984 2394 2899 110

9 401 10240 2693 2213 120

16 434 9497 2673 1411 136

23 326 8704 2343 978 166

29 294 7660 1917 816 226

30 249 8505 2127 991 383

Summary:

The U.S. is looking better.
The World and India have plateaued, which is better than being on a rise.
Country ranking today of new cases:

#1 India
#2 Brazil
#3 Colombia
#4 UK
#5 Argentina
#6 Indonesia
#7 Russia
#8 South Africa
#9 USA

The mortality rate is 2.2%. Thus in ten days or so:

India will continue to have around 1000 deaths/day.
Brazil will drop by a factor of two to 1000 deaths/day.
The U.S. will increase a bit to 300/day.

Of course, the mortality rate depends on age.
39% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. occurred in nursing homes. Click on that graphic to read the details.

But what is the asymptomatic rate?

The mortality rate could be as low as 0.5% if the asymptomatic rate is 80%.
However, both the CDC and South Korea believe this rate is 30%.
Way back in November, Nature reported early studies shows that this rate was as high as 81%, but more recent meta-analysis indicated 17%.
Anthony Fauci says 40-45%, and we might not know this rate until later in the summer.
The bottom line is that medical experts do not really know what is the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19.

Can asymptomatic cases spread the disease? At this time, the CDC speculates that 75% of asymptomatic cases are infectious. And in case you did not know, asymptomatic individuals are afflicted, but show no symptoms.

It depends on the individual, but a COVID-19 patient is infectious for from 10-20 days. Worse, this individual can spread the disease two days before showing any symptoms.

Here is something to scare you: 66% of venereal disease cases are asymptomatic. This means that two-thirds of them so afflicted are capable of infecting you even if they show no symptoms!

The seasonal flu has been around forever, so you would think that medical science knows the range of asymptomatic cases depending on the season? Nope. However, the field has guessed that the asymptomatic rate of the flu is 50%. Again, this is the group that most likely spreads the disease. The ones who are sick stay at home and later warn you by coughing.

Even for the common cold, there is little consensus. One study indicated that 60.5% of those afflicted with the rhinovirus are asymptomatic.

On these bases, you would thus surmise that the asymptomatic rate of COVID-19 must be higher than 50%. And if the ongoing studies cited by Dr. Fauci come to any kind of conclusion, we might know the asymptomatic rate of this disease by September.

I have been selected to exhibit my photos this month at 15 Craigside. I am featuring the best of my around the world trips, and provide info on the Island Princess world cruise departing Los Angeles for 111 days beginning on 19January2022. You, too, can sail the globe. Alas, I look at my photos and can see that mine can't compare with the following:

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases. Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6, is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples . However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6. Here is a reference as to what this means. A series of two injections is involved. Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome. This strain has also been spreading in

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

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HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These are held every five years, and there have only been

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