THE RISE OF VACCINE MANDATES

          From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82

July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512         1151        189       712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

          25       2414    10578        1582        119      144

Mar     2        1989      9490       1726       110      194

          31       1115      12301        3950       458       58

April   6         906     11787         4211        631       37

May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 

         26         607     12348         2399     3842     101

June    1         287     10637        2346      3205      95

          30        249      8505        2127        991      383

July     7          251      8440         1595        817      411

          14          374       8721        1574        580      453    

         21           414       8638        1388        510      516

         27           339      9460        1320       640      370

         28           483    10136         1366        641      520

Summary:

• Looking worse for the USA:
• Yesterday, the new cases amounted to 84,534.
• #2 Brazil  48,443.
• #3 Indonesia  47,791.
• If the mortality rate holds at 1.8%, this means that the new deaths/day for U.S. will be 1496 ten days or so from today.
• As yesterday the U.S had 483 new deaths, this means that this number will triple in ten days.
• Louisiana could see a jump from 14 new deaths yesterday to 85 new deaths/day in 10 days.
• Florida from 92 yesterday to 289 in ten days.
• Arizona from 2 yesterday to 25 in ten days.
• Countries in the Orient are especially on the uptick, and Africa is now showing several countries with new cases/day in four digits.
• Japan is just about hitting 10,000 new cases/day for the first time.  
• Their previous peaks in April did not reach 5,000/day and in January was up just past 6,000/day. 
• If this were a month or two ago, a decision would have been made to cancel the Tokyo Summer Olympics.
• Of course, the Games have gone on for a week now with relatively few athletes getting infected, and will see a closing ceremony on August 8.
• The fully vaccinated rate in Japan is now 27%.
• China's fully vaccinated rate is 57%, while the U.S. has been stalled at just around 50%.

The Center for Disease Control during the reign of Donald Trump was worse than useless.  Well, the Biden CDC can't win for anything.  Today, the New York Times characterized them as having two problems:  polarization and communication.  Note how the CDC keeps changing its mind? Notice that whatever they say, Trump states continue to ignore them?

As unenviable as CDC's situation might be, at least I can now almost completely believe what they say, and they seem inconsistent mostly because this COVID-19 virus keeps morphing into a more dangerous virus, forcing bureaucratic adjustments.

Herd immunity once was said to be as low as 60%.  Now that it is looking like the U.S. will be approaching that number by early next year, the latest indicated range seems to be in the range of 70%-90%.  As the USA is back to regularly having the most new cases/day in the world, all that optimism shown at the beginning of the year when those vaccines became available is shifting into a pessimism.

Looks like various acts of vaccine mandates might need to be the ultimate solution.  Universities are beginning to take this step, major companies like Google and Facebook are also heading in this direction, New York and California also are just about there, and President Joe Biden will today announce this vaccination mandate for federal workers and contractors.  Clearly, the Federal government needs to accelerate that announcement about these vaccines being officially safe, and make it official, plus add those 5-11 year olds to the eligibility list.

The Justice Department has already determined that federal law doesn't prohibit public agencies and private businesses from requiring COVID-19 vaccines.  The Trump administration had the exact opposite opinion, having to do with mask-wearing.

Here is a comprehensive expectation of what the vaccinated and unvaccinated will do this summer:

Somewhat shocking that those who are unvaccinated plan to be more active than the fully vaccinated. But the unvaccinated are more and more being prejudiced against.  They are now prevented from participating in crowded indoor events and highly discouraged to travel.  Don't they realize that the danger they present by going around unmasked is mostly to themselves, for the contagious Delta variance is making difference? 

I don't quite understand the CDC's latest announcement requiring safely-vaccinated individuals to wear masks in compromising situations.  Their reason is that those vaccinated, while they don't themselves get sick, hosts viruses in their respiratory tract that can infect those who are unvaccinated.  Why penalize those who got vaccinated?  Place the heat on the true villains, the unvaccinated.

In any case, anyone with health, philosophical or religious reasons can still gain exemption.  Looks like this group should be around 5%, but that figure came from children's vaccinations that have long been mandated.  Regarding adults, I would imagine that this figure could double because some people are almost insanely driven by freedom of choice ideals.

Thus, at a 90% ultimate vaccination rate, herd immunity will be attained, and this COVID-19 Delta virus should be controlled.  My fear is that the current upswing will introduce a more dangerous virus like the Lambda version that could make my current vaccination obsolete.

A few countries are seeking a 100% vaccination rate, and first to do so might be Saudi Arabia.  The United Arab Emirates has already reached 93% because they effectively mandated it without saying so.  Israel went the vaccine passport rout to determine where you can go.  I've long advocated a universal vaccine passport not unlike your travel passport, but on your smartphone, to facilitate checking.

Mandates are just another form of politics.  Plato must have been a pretty smart guy:

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. Plato, ancient Greek Philosopher

One of Socrates' pupils was Plato, who apparently died in his sleep at the age of 80, 347 years before the birth of Jesus Christ.  On the other hand, the life expectancy those days was around 27, and Epimenides of Crete was said to have lived to the age of 157, and rhetorician Giorges to 108, so perhaps, like the Bible, some exaggeration was common in those days.

Or:

I don't make jokes. I just watch the Government and report the facts. ~Will Rogers (1879- 1935)

Rogers was part Cherokee Indian who was the highest paid Hollywood star when he was on a plane that crashed in Alaska, killing him at the age of 55.  Another of his quotes is I am not a member of any organized party.  I am a Democrat.

-