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THE METAMORPHOSIS OF COVID-19

The original COVID-19 is deadly compared to the seasonal flu.  The mortality rate of flu is 0.1%, or one in a thousand who contract this ailment dies.  This pandemic virus has a rate of 2%, or is 20 times more lethal than the flu.

However, the Delta variant apparently is worse.  Might well be 40 times more according to the graphic on the left.

While vaccinations are protecting more and more, there is no question the world is now in its fourth wave:

The current U.S. daily cases per million people is slightly under 100.

But with all those vaccinations, why is the daily count rising? 

Out of India  (above is an aerial photo of a New Delhi funeral pyre for victims of this pandemic) came the Delta variant.  Here is how Delta took over in the UK:

99% of cases from July was caused by the Delta variant.  In the U.S. this strain is around 50%.  Even then, with the vaccination rate nearing 50%, those negligent Trump states (which are being inoculated at a lower rate) are suffering.

What is so different about the Delta variant?  To begin, the earlier British variant that spiked the world in January was 60% more infectious than the original COVID-19 virus.  However, Delta is 60% again more transmissible than the first variant.  The Delta variant is more contagious than smallpox.

The reason why this particular virus is so nasty is that some individuals only mildly suffer, and this is the group that goes around infecting others.  Ebola just completely incapacitates you.  The mortality rate of the Ebola virus (and there are variants) can be up to 68%!!!  Spreading Ebola is difficult.  I won't go into the details, but it is estimated that the viral load of Delta is 1,000 times higher than that of the original variant.  This article was sent to me by a long-time correspondent, Ray Kamada.

An appeals court yesterday reversed the verdict of a Florida judge.  Effectively, Governor Ron DeSantis wanted cruise ships to defy CDC's ruling about requiring vaccinations for cruises, and won in court.  Not now.  What this will mean is that cruise ships will have difficulty sailing unless they take stringent precautions.  The cruise lines themselves, actually, were feuding with DeSantis, but dropped their vaccination requirement after his initial court victory.  Now, confusion will reign for a while, and cruise lines will see a sudden drop in their passenger count, meaning that there will be bargains galore.  I plan to post tomorrow on a second global journey, which will incorporate ships and planes.

So on to the Tokyo Summer Olympics.  But first, what about this pandemic?  Tokyo showed a slight decline in new cases yesterday.  Also, keep in mind that the USA has suffered from 104,959 cases/million, while Japan is only at 6,620.  The world number is 24,472/million.

There will be more than 11,000 athletes, and of course, some of them will land in Tokyo with COVID-19.  You hope for less than a 1% problem, or perhaps 100 cases.   Worse, if one person on a plane tests positive, then everyone will be quarantined.  80% of participants are expected to have been properly vaccinated.  They will mostly test negative and will be allowed to perform.  The unvaccinated and quarantined will be tested the day of their event, and if negative, will be allowed to participate.  The Games will go on to be globally televised.

The very first event will be Japan vs Australia in softball, at 8PM Tokyo time on Tuesday, July 20, or 7AM EDT on Wednesday.  At 10AM on Tuesday EDT, the USA will play Italy.  However, looking at the Spectrum TV guide for Wednesday, I don't see anything being shown at those times.  I did notice that on NBCSC, which is channel 210 or 1210 in Honolulu, the Japan-Australia game starts at 2PM Hawaii time, which is 9AM Wednesday in Tokyo, so I'm a bit confused.  I guess the games on NBCSN are not live, but instead delayed for more convenient viewing.  In any case, four Australian softball Olympians played for the University of Hawaii.

For those wanting to prep for Olympics-watching, begin at 9AM Hawaii time (3PM EDT) to view Kon Ichikawa's mammoth Tokyo Olympiad (this is the shortened 2-hour version), a three-hour extravaganza of the Tokyo 1964 Summer Olympics on TCM.  Rotten Tomatoes reviewers gave this film a 100 rating.  Several others follow, running till 1AM tomorrow.  I noticed that 16 Days of Glory about the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics starts at 4:15 Hawaii time, and ends at 9:15PM...five hours long.  You Tube has all 4 hours and 44 minutes of this show.

I watched part of the 1948 London Olympics.  How times have changed.  The track and field events usually had one black and the rest white runners.  A white person won every race I saw, including the 400 meter relay finished by a white American.  I guess Jesse Owens had retired by then.  In 1936 he beat the Nazis in German Olympics, and shook Hitler's hand.

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