THE FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY FOR HAWAII AND THE WORLD

I post a lot about the Blue Revolution and hydrogen.  My early experience had mostly to do with:

• Biomass in 1962 at the Hutchinson Sugar Company on the Big Island.
• Then a decade later I joined the faculty of the University of Hawaii, and began a program to grow microalgae in a raceway to both produce biofuels and remediate global warming by feeding the equivalent of stack gases into the system. 

• 
  Soon thereafter, I became part of the Hawaii Geothermal Project, and in 1976 we succeeded in drilling the hottest (676 F) well in the world, which went on to generate 2.8 megawatts, a baseload power source that could supply electricity for 5000 homes.
• All those effluents were being discarded as an environmental nuisance, so I helped create Noi'i O Puna, or the Puna Research Center in 1985 to assist the private sector initiate new companies in a variety of agriculture, aquaculture and tourism activities.  This was the geo-equivalent of the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority on the other side of the island for ocean resources.

In the midst of all the above, in 1974 I went on my first University-sponsored trip, which perhaps was my most rewarding effort of this type ever.

• To quote:

The First Energy Crisis of 1973 triggered a meeting of ten engineering faculty members at the University of Hawaii, where we were asked to pick a topic from a list of ten.  I had the least seniority, and got stuck with wind energy, something certainly beyond the ken of a biochemical engineer.  I'm not sure if I even had ever seen a real windmill in my life.  

• 
  I saw that the hydrogen romantics were holding the first major hydrogen conference at the University of Miami, so that was my first stop.  This gathering created the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, leading me to later work for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in laser fusion, and in 1979 draft the original legislation that became the Matsunaga  Hydrogen Act.

• 
  Next, Lou Divone in DC, even before the Department of Energy was formed.  He served as the federal authority of windpower for decades.
• He didn't think Hawaii had any potential for this resource and proceeded to show me a table which indicated our winds were not particularly good.  However, these measurements were taken at airports.  I told him that our mountains amplified the wind speed and we had sites that were as good as anywhere.  
• So with some reluctance he said, okay, the next meeting of the Wind Power Division of the American Solar Energy Society was to occur in Boulder in a few days, so I should drop by and ask for help.
• In those days you could easily change plane flights, so I did go to Colorado.  Amazing what presence can do:

When I arrived at that session, the meeting had already started, so at one point I mentioned that I had just seen Lou Divone and he asked me to ask you for assistance.  When a field is just beginning, and, remember, this was 1974, no one knows much about the subject.  Half an hour later I was elected to become the next chairman of this division.  The current leader was Frank Eldridge, who had recently published Wind Machines.  I don't remember the details, but I somehow convinced Frank to come to Hawaii.  He and his wife did, and they helped us get started.

In 1979 I found myself working for Senator Spark Matsunaga, and, in addition to drafting the original bills for OTEC and hydrogen, one of my first activities was to work with Tom Gray on the national wind energy legislation, which went on to become law, as did those other two subjects.  He went on to found the American Wind Energy Association.  I never did do much with this field after I returned to the University of Hawaii in 1982, but I've long thought that the ocean around us was the best place to generate wind energy.

Six years ago I wrote:

Bewilderingly, our local community has killed the Superferry, diminished geothermal development, suffocated the Thirty Meter Telescope and scared off wind farm developers.  To quote myself:

All in all, though, while I still maintain a sense that I'm lucky to have been born here and can live out my life in this "Paradise," I worry that we have become a community attempting a return to the past rather than advancing into the future.  

Hawaii is gaining a reputation of a State that only says NO!

I went on further to say:

According to this source, Hawaii can produce all our electricity just with wind power.  There is no mention that major wind farms were announced for Molokai and Lanai, but local residents successfully scared away investors.

So more and more, any major wind energy project stumbled, mostly because local folks protested.

So why is a significant cross-section of our society against something like wind energy?  There is the Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) syndrome.  Then you add aesthetics, noise, religious feelings, threat to economy (hotels in the region of announced wind farms are afraid that the impression of high winds dissuades potential customers), bird kills (the Audubon Society is very active in fighting anything to do with wind power).  I was personally involved 40 years ago when all these forces came against us at hearings.  We then prevailed and were able to continue R&D and for early wind farms to be installed, but there is now an enough is enough attitude and people just don't want too much of what should be a good thing.

Would people here rather keep importing oil, or build a nuclear powerplant?  Of course not, and that is my problem with them.  What can be tapped to produce electricity?  Hawaii is blessed with ample winds...and most of this resource is located in the ocean around the islands.  Here are a few wind regime maps, mostly from Hawaiian Electric:

Again from six years ago:

• Anything green (14 MPH and higher mean speed) is fine for wind farms.
• As Hawaii's average cost of electricity is around 30 cents/kWh, while that of the nation is closer to 12 cents/kWh, any colored location is more than adequate for commercialization.
• Orange, Red and Maroon are absolutely fabulous.
• Purple, Orange and Blue are fantastic.  These power maps accentuate the attractiveness, for power increases with the CUBE of wind speed.*
• The two Oahu offshore sites will be located in those orange regimes for speed and blue for power. 

* Few realize how important this CUBE factor means.  A 20 MPH site can generate 8 times more power than a 10 MPH site!

The electricity rate for Hawaii is now a bit below 30 cents/kWh, while that of the USA is around 13 cents/kWh.

So earlier this week, the Star Advertiser had on the front page:

     Hawaii offshore wind farm development in doldrums

Again I quote from six  years ago:

• So why don't we put all wind turbines in the ocean?  Simple, they cost a lot more, for here are the total systems levelized cost (don't worry about what these numbers stand for...it's the relativity that counts):
• wind on land           80
• wind offshore        204
• solar PV                  130
• biomass                  103
• geothermal               48
• advanced nuclear     96
• natural gas               66
• coal                          96
• cleaner coal            147

Apparently, offshore costs have dramatically dropped:

The report finds that estimates for the cost of offshore wind energy in the U.S. are declining steeply. At an estimated $89 per megawatt-hour (MWh) reference point for fixed-bottom (not floating) foundation turbines, this year’s estimated cost of offshore wind energy is about 70% of what it was last year ($124/MWh), and about half as much as it was two years ago ($173/MWh).

Thus, it's no surprise that there has been a rapid rise of offshore wind farms.  The current largest is Hornsea 1 in the UK, generating 1218 MW.  A typical nuclear powerplant has about this capacity.  I've long lost count, but I think there are more than 60 offshore wind farms rated at least 200 MW.  The UK continues to surge, with four more of them larger than 1000 MW close to construction.  On average, Oahu uses about 1000 MW.

Where is the USA?  Well, we have two tiny ones near Block Island, Rhode Island, with 162 offshore wind farm projects in planning.  The Biden Administration just last week approved the Vineyard Wind project to install 84 turbines 12 miles off the coast of Martha's Vineyard to generate 800 MW of electricity.

Hawaii?  Notice in the above graph showing how the price has dropped that these are fixed-bottom facilities.  Hawaii has few such sites.  The ocean gets very deep very early when it comes to the Hawaiian islands.

Mind you, this bathymetric profile is great for OTEC.  In any case I've long felt that floating wind farms steered to move within certain gyres were ideal for Hawaii.  Then how do you get the electricity to land? 

The direct beaming of power from point to point is being developed by the space industry.  A long time ago I worked with Peter Glaser, who was the pioneer for this opportunity.   I suspect this option will not be practicable for a long time to come.

I have also suggested that hydrogen could be generated on these offshore wind farms, with a bladder in the ocean used to store the hydrogen, which can be towed to land for use.  One of my ideas is to develop the Hawaiian Hydrogen (H2) Clipper, a fast dirigible, which is actually now a project of Rinaldo Brutoco.  He is a good friend, and I wish him well. This air ship would bring passengers and freight to and from Hawaii, being re-fueled from these floating platforms.  Someday, an airport for hydrogen aviation will be built in Hawaii on one of these floating platforms.

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