THE END OF THE UKRAINE-RUSSIAN WAR?

But first, an assessment by the New York Times this morning of what just happened in Germany:

Germany’s next chancellor is likely to be Friedrich Merz, a former corporate lawyer who has promised to crack down on migration, cut taxes and regulation and adopt a hawkish policy toward Russia. Merz leads a center-right alliance (the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, or CDU) that finished first in yesterday’s election, with 29 percent of the vote. A far-right party, Alternative for Germany (the party that Elon Musk supported), that promises even tougher immigration policies — but is friendly toward Russia — finished second, with 21 percent of the vote.  The center-left Social Democrats, who led the government for the past four years, tumbled to third place, with 16 percent of the vote. It was their worst showing in a national election since at least 1890.

The percentage of the current population born in another country is now 20%, which was only 12.5% a decade ago.  However:

Crime became a salient issue in the campaign. Recent data suggests that foreigners commit about 40 percent of crimes in Germany, Graeme Wood of The Atlantic pointed out. (Immigrants in the U.S., by contrast, commit crimes at a lower rate than natives, despite President Trump’s false claims.) Over the past 10 months, Germany has experienced at least four fatal attacks by migrants who had failed to receive asylum but nonetheless remained in the country.

Also, NBC News reported:

By design, Germany’s voting system means it is very difficult for one party to govern alone, forcing leaders to work together and form coalitions to govern this consensus-based country. Merz said that he hoped to form a government by Easter, but added that cooperating with the second-placed Alternative for Germany, or AfD, was “completely out of the question.” 

So until Germany gets settled, France and the UK are taking leading roles in determining the future of the Ukraine-Russia War.  Russia invaded Ukraine exactly three years ago.  In those early days, it seemed like Russia would roll into Kyiv in a matter of weeks to end the war.  Well, that did not happen.

I recall that the Ukraine capital as Kiev.  When did the spelling change?  The transliteration Kyiv was legally mandated by the Ukraine government in 1995.  However, it took until 2019  for the switch to actually occur internationally after the KyivNotKiev campaign.

President Emmanuel Macron of France met with Donald Trump in the White House this morning.  

• Friedrich Merz sent a strong message of support for Ukraine.  He urged for a fair peace.
• The UK announced new sanctions against Russia.
• A dozen leaders from Europe and Canada visited Kyiv this morning to show united support for Ukraine.
• It is clear where the European Union is in respect to support for Ukraine, with all those parallel events.
• 
  Trump and Macron were convivial to each other, but did not seem to be united in the basics of what would be negotiated to end the Ukraine-Russia War.  

• 
  Trump is taking an America First position, and hopes to get something out of this possible peace, as for example, getting rare earth metals from Ukraine as payment for what the USA has provided to them in the conflict.
• Macron feels that much of European support was given to Ukraine, but that repayment and reconstruction money would come from the $300 billion frozen Russian funds now tied up in the European Union.  There might be something close to a trillion dollars, if everything counted.
• There is general acceptance from all parties that peacekeepers in Ukraine would be from Europe.
• Peace could come in a matter of weeks.
• As Trump indicated, the threat of world-wide nuclear warfare triggered by this war is now not a concern, and also that consideration should be given to Russia being readmitted back into the G7 to become the G8 again.

• 
  Clearly, Ukraine will not be able to join NATO in the near future.
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will come to the White House on Thursday to further unify the West, and perhaps solidify the emerging plan to deploy as many as 30,000 European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine.  Trump wants the UK to raise defense spending to 2.5% of their GDP.

On a lighter note, my Saturday posting focused on Netflix as a streaming opportunity, for a cost.  Time magazine drew up a list of cheesy romantic comedies you can find on this channel:

• Why is cheesy and romantic desirable?  These  rom-coms brighten your day, while allowing you to fold laundry and only keep one eye on the screen.
• Unfortunately, none of the mentioned films scored all that well on Rotten Tomatoes, or were too new to be rated.
• Resort to Love received 65% from reviewers, but 86% from audiences.  I usually side with the latter.  This was by far the highest rated on this list.

• 
  Oh, don't watch Love at First Sight.  First, too old, released in 1977, starring Dan Aykroyd.  But worse, had a zero score on Rotten Tomatoes.

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