Skip to main content

A HUGE ASTEROID COULD STRIKE EARTH IN 7 YEARS

 But before this impending doom, a few words about Trump, et al.

  • With much showmanship, Donald Trump this morning talked to Vladimir Putin on the phone.  This was a well-orchestrated affair, as American school teacher Marc Fogel was released from Russia, and met with Trump yesterday, showing good faith by his pal Vlad.  This was a prisoner swap with Alexander Vinnik, a convicted Russian criminal.  Initial step in ending the war in Ukraine.  By what has so far been leaked, the war will soon end, with Ukraine losing a lot of territory and being banned from joining NATO.
  • The U.S. Senate today confirmed 43-year old Tulsi Gabbard as Director of national intelligence.  She represented Hawaii as a Democrat in the U.S. House from 2013 to 2021.  Only Republic to not vote for Gabbard was Senator Mitch McConnell, who couldn't care less what Trump will do to him.  I posted on everything you should know about Tulsi on 30December2024.  She plays the ukulele.  By the time you read this, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. should get a unanimous Republican vote to become the next Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Late in January NOAA indicated that an asteroid the width of an NFL football field will approach Earth in less than a decade with a 1% chance of actually hitting our planet.

  • A week later, the asteroid had a name, 2024 YR4, but was not as large, perhaps 130 feet wide, to swing past Earth on 22December2032, but now with a 1.9% chance of striking us.
  • Then on February 7, latest calculations increased the percentage to around 2.3%.
While not as large as originally announced, the more than doubling the odds causes huge worries.  How concerning is 2.3%?
  • The odds of an average golfer making a hole in one are 12,000 to 1, or only 0.01%.  I've never gotten one.  At this probability, I wouldn't worry about this asteroid.
  • The odds of a 20-handicap golfer, which is about where I am, getting a birdie (one under par) are one in every 60 holes.  This means I will only get a birdie once in three rounds.  But a 1.7% chance of my getting a birdie on my next hole is actually very hopeful.  Only a couple of years ago I got three birdies over four holes, and putted just off the green to miss the fourth.  So 1.7% can happen, again and again, much too often.
  • Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.3% chance of striking our planet.  That is kind of scary, because I get close to getting a birdie too often. 
Yesterday, Space reported on this asteroid.
  • 2.3% of hitting Earth.
  • It is now 196 feet wide.
More details:
  • An asteroid is chunk of rock, circulating in the solar system since its creation.
  • When first sighted, on Christmas Day, it was 500,000 miles from us, and moving AWAY.
  • That is twice the distance of the Moon.
  • But its orbit will result in this asteroid heading back our way.
  • If it hits us, it will be on 22December2032.
  • An asteroid of this size impacts Earth every few thousand years.
  • In 1908, a 98 foot-wide asteroid struck the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest of Russia and destroyed 830 square miles of forest.
  • In 2013, a 66 foot-wide asteroid struck Chelyabinsk, Russia, exploding in the air, releasing 20 to 30 times more energy than the first atomic bomb, generating brightness greater than the sun, damaging more than 7000 buildings and injuring more than a thousand people.
  • Asteroid 2024 Y4 has 8 times the mass of the 1908 asteroid and 26 times that of the 2013 asteroid.
  • Like the 2013 asteroid, 2024 YR4 is expected to blow up in our atmosphere and not create a crater.
  • This explosion would equal around 8 megatons (8,000 kilotons, kt) of TNT, the equivalent of 500 Hiroshima atomic bombs.

How does this new asteroid compare with the Chicxulub impactor that killed off the dinosaurs 66 million years ago?

  • The Chicxulub asteroid was at least 6 miles in diameter, which is 162 times larger than 2024 YR4.
  • The mass of the dinosaur-killer was around 4 million times greater than our current worry.
  • The Chicxlub crater in the Yucatán Peninsular is 120 miles in diameter.

What can we do?

  • We won't closely see asteroid 2024 YR4 again until 2028.  This is awfully close to 2032.  How much time do we need to internationally make a decision to fund and construct a fail safe option to divert this asteroid?
  • NASA's 2022 DART mission successfully nudged an asteroid off course using a spacecraft, a strategy known as a kinetic impactor.
  • Lasers could vaporize part of the asteroid, creating a thrust effect, pushing it off course.
  • A gravity tractor in the form of a large spacecraft could slowly tug the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull.

In short, no need to panic at this time, although clearly, we need to reach an international agreement pretty soon to be ready for a possible worst case scenario.  Be aware of this Torino scale.


At this time, it seems like Asteroid 2024 YR4 will only affect this area of Earth.

If this corridor is confirmed, why would the U.S. or Europe care that much?  We are talking many billions of dollars.  Donald Trump will still be president in 2028.  Maybe this administration will get proactive because Elon Musk's company can profit from this adventure.  In fact:

Elon Musk has suggested that starships stationed in the asteroid belt could help protect Earth from asteroids like 2024 YR4. 

To end, 5-year old Monty the Giant Schnauzer won Best in Show at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show.  The first of his breed to ever do so. This the 149th edition of this competition, and is the second-oldest sporting event in the U.S., only behind the Kentucky Derby.  3000 dogs competed this year in New York City.

-


Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota.  Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north.  Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge.  If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic.  Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing.  The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University.  Caught a bus. Was called the  Century 21 Exposition .  Also the Seattle World's Fair.  10 million joined me on a six-month run.  My first. These a...
Post a Comment
Read more

WHY YOU SHOULD CONVERT TO A JAPANESE HIGH TECH TOILET

Did you know that   Oktoberfest   in Germany is mostly in September?  The very first day of Oktoberfest 2021 was supposed to be today, September 18, extending into October 3.  Well, as in 2020, Oktoberfest was cancelled. So why is it called by that month when it is held mostly in September?  The first celebration in 1810 was in October. Did you also know that Oktoberfest is held only in Munich?  These days seven million drink more than a liter ( about three typical cans ) of beer each, costing around $11.  Except for my wife and I when we followed the crowd to board the S-Bahn to the fairgrounds near Old Town.  It was drizzling a bit.  We bought a large pretzel outside of a typical barn where beer is served.  We did not know that you needed to get this inside the hall.  So no one came to serve us beer.  After a while we decided to have lunch, and the restaurant we settled on only served wine.  Thus, we might have been the ...
Post a Comment
Read more

THE FIRST 84 YEARS OF MY LIFE

The first half of my life was spent preparing myself for my final 42 years.  This was a mostly trying and stressful period involving a less than ideal youth, then struggles to get through school, my first few jobs and accompanying life, ending two months later on a Sunday with  Part 15E , so it was a spiritual conclusion to my final transition.  I never did count the number of actual postings, but I suspect it was around 25 parts.  The ending had to do with golf, the disappearance and re-appearance of an  8-iron cover.  That was the final clue to whether the beyond after death would be eternal gloom or Heaven. Today, I provide only one transition, but hint about a final one, for this, after all, is Sunday.  I'm 84 years old, so let me summarize what happened during the first phase, from 0-42, and follow with the years 42-84.  As this is 2024, that key transition year was 1982. I can't seem to find this photo, but as a one-year old baby, I was fat....
Post a Comment
Read more