LATEST INFO ON THE COMING COVID-19 SUMMER WAVE

 The following graphic shows all the COVID-19 waves faced by the U.S., and that there is nothing much occurring today.

Four years ago, July of 2020, when the pandemic was in full swing:

• Positivity was around 1% for places like Australia, South Korea, Uruguay, New York, Maine and Connecticut.
• However Mexico, Nigeria, Mississippi, Nevada and Florida were all higher than 15%.
• In other words, positivity varied quite a bit around the world and within the USA.

On December 12, 2022, the final update for the nation:

• Tennessee  19.3%
• North Carolina 19%
• 14 states above 10%
• 13 states between 5% and 10%
• California 4.8%, Hawaii 4.2%, Wyoming 3.1%
• Remainder of states at zero positivity.
• Again, a spread from nothing to 19.3%, again, no consistency.

The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center has also stopped tracking positivity.

As was the case in the past, U.S. positivity rates vary quite a bit today.

The states of California, Nevada, New Mexico and Hawaii, according to the above map, have positivity rates between 10-14.9%, while the western states including Alaska are in the 5-9.9% range.  In other words, these states are all above the 5% threshold for re-instituting the pandemic.

Covid-19 is definitely showing a wave this summer in Hawaii.  According to KHON 2 on Tuesday, the positivity rate has climbed to 17%.  Then on Wednesday, the Hawaii Department of Health reported that the positivity was 15.9%, up from 14.7% last week.  It was 4.3% on May 1, so something bad is happening.

So it's possible that Hawaii is now the world hotspot for COVID-19.  Worse, I was wondering if 15 Craigside where I live might be a serious cluster, so I walked through all the 10 floors.  Found five doors with those danger signs.  In effect, we have returned to those pandemic days.

That door above is across the hallway from my apartment.  My finger is blocking out the name.  

I thought I'd check out how many cases we have, and get some walking done.  I've now been here for 10 years, and never before saw some floors.  Interestingly enough, they almost look the same, but the greenish color has different shades. 

That is my door to the left, but some are nicely decorated.

Incidentally, I walked 3058 steps, around one and half miles.

In any case, certain U.S. numbers are high, for something under 5% is considered acceptable.  During the pandemic, the World Health Organization recommended that the positivity should remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening.  As such, should Hawaii reinstitute those pandemic measures?

Even the Northeast portion of the U.S., though, is beginning to show the beginning of a new COVID-19 wave.

The following shows which countries are today showing the most COVID-19 deaths.

Russia looks terrible, and the USA is not showing all that much.  A look at the KFF Global COVID-19 Tracker, however, shows that the U.S. is now a hot spot.

That other biggest circle is China.  Europe is not a good place to visit today, and so is New Zealand.  Not totally sure what the following represents, but certainly does not look good for the U.S.

However, the actual number of deaths per week remains relatively low, so far.

But is this the beginning of the feared summer of 2024 COVID-19 wave?  From Time magazine yesterday:

• The amount of SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater remains low.  But, those yellow states above definitely shows more than a month ago.
• The increased infections are driven by the FLiRT variants.
• There is a 16% rise in COVID-related emergency visits.
• But hospitalization and death rates are holding steady.
• Cited was this paper predicting a large winter wave, followed by smaller upticks in spring and summer.
• The coming wave is also occurring because people are not getting boosters and therefore losing immunity.  The logic is this:  there is a tendency for many to get vaccinated in November/December, so six months later, immunity drops.
• A plus is that the FLiRT variants are similar to JN.1, and there is thus some residual immunity remaining.

I watched the America's Got Talent two nights ago, and noted that most of the outstanding performances are not Americans.  In fact, most of the "joke" acts they show are from the U.S., and these all get kicked out.  But, of course, the four judges, from left to right are Canadian, German, Columbian and British.

If you missed Week #2, here is a 51-minute compilation of these acts.  

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