THE PANDEMIC IS OVER, BUT COVID STILL REMAINS ALL AROUND YOU

The World is nearing 700 million covid cases and 7 million deaths, a mortality rate of 1%.

• The highest number of daily deaths occurred on 21January2021 with 17,000. Deaths dropped to 109 two days ago.
• Yesterday the world had 225,694 new cases, with South Korea alone suffering from 164,461.  The USA was #2 with 16,332 new cases.
• The mortality rate this past week for the World was 0.4%.
• S. Korea 0.02%
• USA  0.5%
• Thus you can see that the mortality rate has dropped quite a bit for the World and U.S., probably because of vaccinations and other treatments.
• But why is S. Korea's mortality rate today 25 times lower than the USA? 
• Looking at the mortality data from the beginning, S. Korea's rate is "only" 10 times lower.
• World  1%
• USA  1%
• S. Korea  0.1%
• 
  How does the covid mortality rate compare to the seasonal flu?
• From the World Health Organization:

Influenza remains one of the world’s greatest public health challenges. Every year across the globe, there are an estimated 1 billion cases, of which 3 to 5 million are severe cases, resulting in 290 000 to 650 000 influenza-related respiratory deaths.

• Dividing appropriately, I get a flu mortality rate of 0.5%.
• This figure is half that of all World covid cases, but five times higher than for South Korea.
• I suspect that WHO just guesses the total flu cases/year, and the one billion is actually quite a bit a higher.  How careful are developing countries in counting total flu cases?  It wouldn't surprise me if China and India, representing 36% of the global population, seriously undercount annual flu cases.  Worse for Africa.
• Also, what really is a flu death?  It's vaguely undefined.
• 
  Finally, how many covid deaths in China?
• As of yesterday, Worldometer showed 503,302 deaths, ranking China #92 of all nations.
• The U.S., with less than 25% the population of China, reported 1.2 million deaths.
• A still unpublished U.S. National Institute of Health report says:

Expected COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China until summer 2023 ranged from 49,962 to 691,219, assuming 25–70% of the non-elderly population being infected and variable protection of elderly (from none to three-quarter reduction in fatalities). 

• So, using the higher end of 601,219 deaths, China had 483 covid deaths/million population, while the U.S. had 3489 covid deaths/million population.  
• Difficult to imagine that we have more than seven times more covid deaths/capita than China.  
• But if true, did the draconian measures Chinese citizens had to endure in the first two years of this pandemic save a lot of lives?  
• When China eased up, most of the population got infected, but by then most had received one or more vaccinations, which would explain the low rate of mortality.
• All that makes sense when you consider that both Japan and S. Korea were able to avoid covid cases earlier in the pandemic, and only during the past year began to lead the world in new cases.  Japan deaths/million = 593 and S. Korea = 685, both similar to China.
• The USA had so many covid deaths because the Trump administration's counter productive attitude and policies.  To quote an AP article:

As President Donald Trump entered the final year of his term last January, the U.S. recorded its first confirmed case of COVID-19. Not to worry, Trump insisted, his administration had the virus “totally under control.”

Now, in his final hours in office, after a year of presidential denials of reality and responsibility, the pandemic’s U.S. death toll has eclipsed 400,000. And the loss of lives is accelerating.

“This is just one step on an ominous path of fatalities,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University and one of many public health experts who contend the Trump administration’s handling of the crisis led to thousands of avoidable deaths.

Time magazine this week said scientists are just beginning to understand COVID-19's effect on the brain.

• What is causing loss of taste/smell, brain fog and even strokes?
• Plus, cognitive decline, changes in brain size and structure, depression and suicidal thinking, tremors, seizures, memory loss, and new or worsened dementia have all been linked to previous SARS-CoV-2 infections. 
• These symptoms occurred even in patients with relatively mild effects.
• In some brain diseases, you can see these viruses teeming in the brain.  For covid, there was some virus genetic material in the entire central-nervous system, showing SARS-CoV-2 is capable of infecting and replicating in the brain, but for covid this organ looked more like the body's immune system had gone haywire in response to the virus.  Perhaps a form of inflammation resulted.
• Various solutions are being tested, but immunotherapy seems particularly promising.
• Also, blood-thinning drugs may help breakup tiny microclots in the blood., relieving long covid symptoms.

Time also reported on a rapid, accurate COVID-19 air detector.

• Being developed is an easy-to-use mobile device that will detect in real time in any given space this virus.
• Researchers at Washington University in St. Louis reported that they have a prototype device about the size of a microwave oven to pick up covid signs in five minutes.
• 
  Rajan Chkrabarty said that the team wanted to improve on the current commercial air detectors that can take as long as 24 hours to return results.
• These machines furthermore cost thousands to tens of thousands of dollars per unit.
• The teams development will portable, cost a few cents per test, and will be more sensitive.  In effect, they are able to find a needle in a haystack.

• 
  Y2X Life Sciences hopes to license this technology from Washington University.  The targeted market will be for hospitals, airports and other public areas.  Eventually, the size and cost should be reduced for personal use.  Perhaps someday something similar can be also be developed for colds and the flu for your use on a plane trip or movie theater to help you decide whether to wear a mask or not.  Probably be on your iPhone someday.

From the New York Times:

During Covid’s worst phases, the total number of Americans dying each day was more than 30 percent higher than normal, a shocking increase. For long stretches of the past three years, the excess was above 10 percent. But during the past few months, excess deaths have fallen almost to zero, according to three different measures. First, about three-quarters of U.S. adults have received at least one vaccine shot. Second, more than three-quarters of Americans have been infected with Covid, providing natural immunity from future symptoms. (About 97 percent of adults fall into at least one of those first two categories.) Third, post-infection treatments like Paxlovid, which can reduce the severity of symptoms, became widely available last year.

Finally:

Covid’s toll, to be clear, has not fallen to zero. The C.D.C.’s main Covid webpage estimates that about 80 people per day have been dying from the virus in recent weeks, which is equal to about 1 percent of overall daily deaths. Given the politics of vaccination, the recent victims are also disproportionately Republican and white.

But at least the pandemic  is over.

However, while the pandemic is over, covid remains.  Last week there nearly 800 intensive care patients in the U.S., and the positivity rate is still higher than 5%.

Which variants?  Oh my, sorry you asked.  More than 15.

If you are from Nebraska, for example, it depends on where you live.

Changing subjects, looks like everyone is now going to Beijing.  As, for example, Henry Kissinger, now 100 years old just met with President Xi Jinping.  He was national security adviser under Republican President Richard Nixon, and was a key figure in the U.S. rapprochement with China.

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