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OH WELL, TRUMP MIGHT WIN RE-ELECTION AFTER ALL

First, some latest news:

  • China's economy seems to be tanking.  
    • One serious problem is that the unemployment rate among young people ages 16-24 was 21.3% last month, a new record high.  This group is relatively well educated, and could cause problems.
    • But before you get too elated, their second quarter gross domestic product grew by "only" 6.3%.  The USA GDP is growing by 2.3%.
  • With the release of Speak Now, at #1, Taylor Swift has become the first female to have four albums on the Billboard Top 10 list.  She now also has the most #1 albums in history, passing Barbra Streisand with eleven.  Herb Alpert and Prince are two males who also had 4 at once.
  • I've long felt that Hawaii was in a rut.  Sure Skyline is new, but is only a pale shadow of what it should have been if completed a quarter century ago, for ridership is 21 times below what were low projections anyway.  Worse, the actual cost to operate Skyline this year will be about $54/passenger, the highest cost for light-rail in the USA, by a lot.  However, note that only the low density half-portion of the system now is operating.  All these financial exigencies are to be expected.
    • No new magnificent building or development in ages, and a tourist industry--important because we have no industry as such, and defense is just more war--that has been stalled now for 35 years.
    • I might add, though, that life here is O.K., if not great....for me.  I'm retired, I  go on trips when I feel like it, golf weekly, consume fabulous cuisine (see below) and enjoy a weather that is like paradise.  No heat wave for one, and Hurricane Calvin, who has weakened, and will just bring some needed rain to the state in two days.

Several recent developments have discombobulated my expectation for a Democratic landslide on 5 November 2024.  Such is the state of American politics these days.

First, if Donald Trump can sell his ploy to avoid being tried for his crimes until after the presidential election, he will become the Republican candidate, and could return to the White House.  That is a frightening thought.

Second, if someone like Senator Joe Manchin runs as a third party candidate, again, we could end up with Trump as the next president.

Third party candidates have had a significant impact in a number of presidential elections.

  • Has any such candidate ever become president?  Nope.  
    • Actually there have been only four:
      • Robert La Follette in 1924
      • Strom Thurmond 1948
      • George Wallace 1968
      • John Hospers 1972
    • None of them even won a single electoral vote.
  • However, in 1912, William Taft was challenged by Theodore Roosevelt running for the Progressive Party.  They split the Republican vote, giving the election to Woodrow Wilson.
  • In 1992, Independent Ross Perot placed himself on the ballot in all of the states.  He participated in the presidential debates with George H. Bush and Bill Clinton.  On election day Clinton got 43%, Bush 37% and Perot 19%.  What he did was take votes away from Bush, and Clinton won.
  • In 1996 Perot did it again, to win 8% of the vote, allowing Clinton to beat Bob Dole in electoral votes.
  • In 2000, Ralph Nader of the Green party only got 3% of the votes, but he was obviously a Democrat and gave the presidency to Republican George W. Bush over Al Gore.  In close elections, less than 1% of certain state votes can make a difference.  If only 100,000 Nader votes gone to Gore, as it would have, Gore should have been president.
  • What hurt Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump in 2016 was the Democratic nomination process, where people like Bernie Sanders made an effective neutralizer, for some of his followers either did not vote for her or did not show up to vote.  More importantly, physician Jill Stein of the Green Party got just enough votes in key state, certainly from disenchanted Sanders voters, to make that crucial difference.  In other words, Trump was really lucky.

Wikipedia has some details.  Joe Manchin is not mentioned, but should:

As of July 2023, there has been speculation about the potential candidacy as an independent or with an unspecified third party, for the following notable individuals, within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

The key question is that if there is a formidable third-party candidate, this individual can significantly determine the final outcome.  Manchin will clearly make a difference and give the presidency to the Republican candidate, which today looks like Donald Trump.  The overwhelmingly crucial factor is the marginal vote in close state elections.  So what about a Biden-Cheney ticket for 2024?

I did say above that my life is better than OK, cuisine being one reason.  First, while watching Sumo on NHK, had some boiled peanuts and chicken katsu with a Bloody Mary.  Then, a fabulous Japanese combination of unagi/rice, Japanese vegetables and otoro sashimi purchased from Nijiya Market at the Ala Moana Shopping Center, with cold beer and hot sake.

Watched the first Ocean's Eleven with Frank Sinatra and his Rat Pack, from 1960.  
  • The next one was Ocean's 11 in 2001 with George Clooney with his gang. 
  • Then came Ocean's Twelve (2004), Ocean's Thirteen (2007) and Ocean's 8 (2018), with an all-female cast, led by Sandra Bullock (film sister of Clooney).  
  • A sequel to Ocean's Thirteen could star Matt Damon.
  • Then, Clooney might return as a crossover sequel with Magic Mike, for films have a way to overcome death, as Clooney's Danny Ocean supposedly died in the 2018 film.
  • There will be a prequel set in 1960's Europe with no name yet, but maybe returning the original, starring, of all the people, Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, from the upcoming Barbie.

- 

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