THE STATE OF GEOENGINEERING SOLUTIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING

Today, for sci-tech day, I reach back to three postings on geoengineering solutions for climate warming.  Here is a quick history of this field.

• I was working in the U.S. Senate from 1979 to 1982, and global warming was not at all an issue.
• It took another decade for scientists to come to a conclusion that all those fossil fuel emissions are beginning to affect our climate.
• In the early 90's I led a national effort to include some thinking about solutions to remediate the Greenhouse Gas effect, in addition to all the necessary monitoring and modeling work that was ongoing.

So the following postings provide some details of my involvement.

• An early one was on 23September 11, where I was serializing SIMPLE SOLUTION ESSAYS, with a particular focus on Geoengineering of Climate Change.
• This particular book drew together some of my Huffington Post articles.
• The notion of geoengineering at a global scale scares most.  Their argument is, we have so screwed up our planet that to entrust any group to solve these problems at mega-scale is insane.  They have a point, but the concept merely suggests we talk about these super solutions.  My 1July08 posting reviewed these early thinking steps.
• 
  There are those who feel that there is no cause for concern at this time about the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, and if you trace who they are -- as for example by perusing through the comments of postings like this -- organizations like the Advancement of Sound Science Center or the Heartland Institute seem to regularly pop up. Searching further, you see that companies like Exxon Mobil provide supporting funds. Our White House provides encouragement and Republicans more than Democrats side with these detractors.
• 
  For all I know, they might actually be right. However, let's, for the sake of discussion, say that global heating is real and our world leaders are unable to agree on a workable solution in time. What if the situation gets so bad that virtually instant solutions will be required to save our civilization? I provide a wide variety of answers in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, but for the purpose of this article, let us look at something called global geoengineering.
• 
  The concept is not new. The industrial revolution, farms, cities, transport systems and remedying the ozone hole can be considered to be forms of geoengineering. The Montreal Protocol actually seems to be working for the latter, but the Kyoto Protocol has been less than successful.
• 
  How can you quickly reverse global warming? It has been hypothesized that reducing sunlight by only 1% should eliminate this problem. Various ideas have been floated, from placing reflective sheets on the ocean or in space to exploding a controlled series of hydrogen bombs to stimulate a nuclear winter. Yes, some of the propositions have been certifiably insane.
• 
  More than a decade ago, one of the more popular possible geo-solution was,,,

.... the stratospheric sulfate solution (S-cubed), where large amounts of sulfur dioxide are, through various mechanisms, placed at altitude. This gas would form droplets of sulfuric acid in stratocumulus clouds to reflect back sunlight into space. Names like Freeman Dyson, Paul Crutzen and Edward Teller appear as advocates. This cure might cost $100 billion/year, for the effect wears out after a year, but that is a piffle in comparison with the $45 trillion exclaimed by the International Energy Agency as necessary to insure that our surface temperature only increases by 4 degrees Fahrenheit by the turn of the century.

Surely enough, Mount Pinatubo in 1991 blew its top and threw 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere and the globe cooled about a degree Fahrenheit that year. So the basic S-cubed concept has been largely verified by nature.

Before anyone gets too irrational, let me underscore that no one, not even the most extreme supporter, is even suggesting that anything of any magnitude be initiated today. It wouldn't hurt, though, to set aside a small amount, perhaps 1% of the global climate change budget, to comprehensively study the more reasonable suggestions, especially reviewing the environmental implications, so that if that one in a hundred chance that a perfect global heating storm (as, perchance, depicted in The Venus Syndrome chapter of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth) actually happens, we will have a few rational emergency options worthy of consideration.

Eight years ago, I had another geoengineering posting, making fun of people like then U.S. Senator James Inhofe, who became chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, having written The Greatest Hoax:  How Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future.  As this article reported, too many Republicans share his point of view.

In that posting I mentioned my 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide credit initiative as a non-geoengineering solution.  You can read that article in the Huffington Post.

I also indicated that around 1990 I had used the results of a workshop I had chaired on Greenhouse Warming Remediation to meet with the National Science Foundation.

Seed funds were provided by the University of Hawaii and the Environmental Protection Agency, and we hosted in Hawaii the First Greenhouse Warming Remediation Workshop in March of 1989. The group prepared a $3 million proposal for Year One, which hopefully was to begin in 1991. I went to see Robert Corell of the National Science Foundation, who had been a close colleague of mine when he was at the University of New Hampshire. As an ocean engineer, he was recently named to head the interagency committee on global climate change, a scientific organization. He was mentioned in the quest for the Blue Revolution. Corell’s frank recommendation was to forget remediation at this scale for ten years until the atmospheric and marine scientists had a better handle on the science. 

I further added:

Before anyone gets too irrational, let me underscore that no one, not even the most extreme supporter, is even suggesting that anything of any magnitude be initiated today. It wouldn't hurt, though, to set aside a small amount, perhaps 1% of the global change budget, to comprehensively study the more reasonable suggestions, especially reviewing the environmental implications, so that if that one in a hundred chance that a perfect global heating storm (as, perchance, depicted in The Venus Syndrome chapter of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth) actually happens, we will have a few rational emergency options worthy of consideration.

The sense of those times, however, was--and this was a third of a century ago--let the scientist first find out if this global warming thing is real or not.  There were various solutions then being discussed:

• Here is a list of 50 simple things to stop global warming.
• Scientific American has ten good solutions worth your read.

Only a few months ago I revisited this subject with:  THE GEOENGINEERING OF CLIMATE WARMING.    This posting pretty much says what is written above.

So is nothing still happening in climate change geoengineering?  Well, attitudes are forming, and Fortune earlier this month wrote on The UN wants to seriously explore reflecting sunlight back into space to avert a climate crisis.  If that did not work, try this.  In short, the potential severity of climate warming is beginning to convince some decision-makers that simple agreements to reduce fossil fuel use might not be sufficient.  Thus, finally, some interest is building for geoengineering solutions.

Last week the International Panel on Climate Change released their final volume in a series of reports outlining their latest understanding of the science of climate change.  Reported was an unequivocal declaration that climate change is real, and there was a fear that even with urgent action, we will continue to face a dramatic uptick in catastrophic events.  There is a pot of mystery called known unknowns.  While, yes, bad things are happening, they don't know for sure how bad it will be.  Can't even predict the extent of the coming sea level rise.  So after 35 years of intensive research, they seem puzzled.  They happen to be 195 official members and thousands of contributors.

Harvard reported:

• The average global temperature is increasing faster now than at any time in the last 2 million years. This has fueled record-breaking droughts, heat waves, and wildfires, and has intensified weather patterns, causing more extreme and damaging hurricanes and rainfall. Human activity is driving this change, primarily through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases, which are released when fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas are burned to produce energy. 
• One item of particular interest to me has to do with engineering the oceans.  They seem stuck with traditional ideas that could cost $450 billion/PER YEAR.  I wish they had considered the Blue Revolution.
• Read their report.

In summary then regarding geoengineering, the UN now recommends studying the options, and the White House has initiated a five-year research plan.  Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are beginning to dabble.  Of course there is no consensus except perhaps to proceed cautiously.  We have not advanced much in a third of a century, save for one change.  Important organizations are finally beginning to comment.

So on to my cruise.  We are two days away from land, and boobies have been following our ship.  Went for a walk, and they're catching a ride.  What will they do when we get to Fiji? 

Had only two meals today, lunch and dinner.  Mainly soups and salads, with fish, foie gras, veal and cheeses.

The evening ended around the pool with a Let's Dance Party featuring all the entertainers.  We ended up dancing with the dancers.

Noticed a bottle of Cragganmore Scotch, so had some of that.

At 15 Craigside, much of the discussion has to do with ailments and dying.  On the Seabourn Odyssey, there is everywhere happiness and joy.  These night time pool parties epitomize this feeling, which is contagious.  Another late night with a good day of walking.

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