From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):
DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa
2020
June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82
July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572
Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130
Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82
Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85
Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118
Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465
2021
Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712
Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398
Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194
April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37
May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59
June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95
July 7 251 8440 1595 817 411
Aug 4 656 10120 1118 532 423
Sept 22 2228 9326 839 279 124
Oct 6 2102 8255 543 315 59
Nov 3 1436 7830 186 458 23
Dec 1 1633 8475 266 477 28
2022
Jan 7 2025 6729 148 285 140
Feb 2 2990 12012 946 991 175
Mar 2 1778 7756 335 173 28
Apr 1 439 4056 290 52 12
May 5 225 2404 151 ? 64
June 2 216 1413 130 10 31
July 6 316 1627 335 35 12
Aug 4 311 2138 258 70 ?
Sep 1 272 1732 174 ? ?
Oct 6 281 1305 119 9 ?
Nov 3 167 980 16 ? ?
25 88 985 71 3 ?
Dec 3 149 1029 131 3 ?
8 194 1320 104 6 86
15 147 1295 124 4 ?
22 289 1637 165 9 ?
28 296 1768 337 2 ?
Jan 4 346 1534 207 ? ?
5 220 1611 183 ? ?
12 270 1470 128 ? ?
19 225 1775 480 ? ?
26 351 1361 92 1 7
Summary:
- Japan yesterday continued to be #1 in new cases with 79,354 and new deaths with 368. The U.S. was #2 in both with 29,738 and 351.
- China did not report to Worldometer yesterday, but intermittently responds with ridiculously low numbers.
However, and astonishingly, a prominent government Chinese scientist just claimed that 80% of the people in the country have been infected. This person is Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Thus, relative to other countries (I'm leaving out tiny islands), these are the percentage of people who have been infected with COVID-19.
- #1 China 80%
- #3 Austria 64%
- #9 Iceland 60%
- #10 France 60%
- #12 South Korea 59%
- #23 Israel 51%
- #26 Switzerland 50%
- #35 Germany 45%
- #39 Australia 43%
- #42 Italy 42%
- #47 Taiwan 39%
- #50 Singapore 37%
- #53 UK 35%
- #60 USA 31%
- #72 Norway 27%
- #78 Japan 26%
- #107 Russia 15%
- #119 Canada 12%
- #126 UAE 10%
- WORLD 9%
- #142 Thailand 7%
- #143 South Africa 7%
- #161 India 3%
- #185 Pakistan 0.7%
- #224 Tanzania 0.6%
- #228 CHINA 0.3% (this was a figure sent in by China two days ago)
- Many other countries fall in the China non-reportage level. As for example, most of Africa, India and to some degree, Russia.
- In reality that World infection percentage of 9% should be at least 25%, and perhaps 50% or higher.
- For the past few months Japan has mostly ranked #1 in new cases/day, with the USA mostly #1 in deaths/day. We both tend to be high mostly because we are supposedly accurate in our reporting. However, less and less, as most tests are now done at home, and who knows how many cases are officially reported.
So about China, wonder how Dr. Wu will keep his job. On the other hand, Peking University earlier had already suggested that 64% of their population had been infected, not far off from his 80%. PU also said that 60,000 people died just between December 8 and January 12.
How many people in the World died during this same period? Around 7500. This means that nearly 90% of all World covid deaths during those five weeks occurred in China!!! The good news is that cases are reportedly on the decline in the country. However, the recent Chinese New Year mass migration of 2 billion travelers going home surely will test the validity of their herd immunity. Their vaccines are not all that good.
Let me change subjects to population, where China is now experiencing a population decline, shrinking last year for the first time since 1961 (famine killed tens of millions), dropping 850,000 from 2021. Why the decrease?
- Far reaching consequences of the earlier one-child policy, which was loosened in 2015 and totally discarded in 2021.
- That policy began in 1980, and over time, changes in the economy and attitude are now that young couples don't want children anymore. Incentives are not working.
- Don't think the pandemic was a factor.
- Japan reached zero population growth in 2000 and started to decline in 2010.
- Worse, the drop is today accelerating.
- The expectation is a population drop in Japan from the current 126 million to 88 million in 2065.
- Blame is generally placed on single women, where unmarried females aged 25-29 jumped from 21% in 1975 to 66% in 2020. Those 30-34 rose from 8% to 39%. You would think males have something to do with this too.
- Also, more women are now working. The labor participation rate of women aged 25-29 leaped from 45% in 1970 to 87% in 2020.
- South Korea and Taiwan are going through these same changes.
By 2035, 400 million people, over a third of the current population, will be over the age of 60. As is already facing Japan, China will shortly have a horrendous problem supporting the elderly.
In April of this year, India (1.33 billion) will shoot pass China (1.4 billion) in number of people. China's population in 2050 will be 8% smaller than today, while India's will continue to grow. By 2064 India should have 1.7 billion people, and will be 50% larger than China. However, China is not alone, for the United Nations projects that 61 countries/territories will see a population decrease between 2022 and 2050. The USA? Immigration is the difference keeping us growing. Even India will not too long in the future experience some decline. Watch out for Nigeria.
- COVID-19 will kill an additional 2.7 million in China, with a major wave occurring at the end of January. The USA has reported 1.1 million deaths so far.
- Economic recovery will be weak.
- There will be a travel boom, both incoming and outgoing.
- There will be more and more small protests.
- Softer words about Taiwan.
About that China-U.S. bilateral trade discrepancy? More recently it mostly disappeared.
The U.S. Peace Institute has the same title and similar opinions. Foreign Policy has a recent attitude.
Essentially, the U.S. has a significant military advantage over China. Here is a direct comparison. Another is that the USA spends more on war than the next 9 countries combined.
Here is a thoughtful video on what to expect from China, featuring Malcolm Clarke. A case is made that China is a different kind of global power. It is not imperialistic. However, last year an American general expressed fear that China was seeking a military naval base in Africa. They succeeded, so China now has one, and seeks, as reported, three more. The USA has 750 military bases spread across 80 countries involving 166,500 American troops. This publication lists China in five countries.
Instead of troops, China sends out planners, engineers, and other civilian personnel. They provide loans, build roads and so forth, the purpose being to gain the support of the international world. It is working, for The Pew Research Center says more and more countries are leaning in the China direction:
In short, China is more fearsome as a rival into the future, but Russia is dangerous today because of the war in Ukraine and the small chance that this could escalate into a nuclear war. This factor is standing in the way of wholesale western military aid to the country. When added up, something like 114 tanks will be sent to Ukraine. Not only will these arrive slowly, over many months, but do you realize how relatively insignificant this ferocious input will have?
How can I end the week with war? Let's go back to the 2016 Masters golf tournament. The 16th hole. Louis Oosthuizen the golfer.
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