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JANUARY 6: Are Republicans Again Testing the Fragility of Democracy?


From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

         DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020
June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
2021
Jan     14       4142      15512       1151         189     712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
2022
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64
June    2         216      1413         130           10        31
July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 
Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?
Sep    1           272       1732         174            ?         ?
Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?
Nov    3          167         980           16            ?         ?
        25            88         985           71             3        ?  
Dec    3          149       1029         131            3         ?
          8          194       1320         104             6       86
        15           147       1295         124             4         ?
        22          289       1637         165             9         ? 
        28          296       1768         337            2         ?
Jan    4          346       1534         207             ?         ?
         5           220       1611          183             ?         ?

Summary:
  • Well, the pattern holds.  The Wednesday data (shown on Thursday) is always much higher than the Thursday numbers (shown on Friday).
  • Japan continued to show the most new deaths with 334, #2 Germany 262 and #3 USA 220.
  • Wow, what is happening to Japan in new cases?
    • #1  Japan  226,904
    • #2  S. Korea  64,106
    • #3  Taiwan  31,150
    • #4  USA  30,049
    • On the basis of new cases/million population.
      • Japan  1807
      • USA  90
      • Mind you, Niue is at 9248. Cook Island 7,171 and Hong Kong 2,423.
      • Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea are #5, #6 and #7.  The U.S. is #32.
  • The contention is that these rates and numbers are so high because many of these countries in the Orient are among the few accurately reporting these days.  Except for China, of course.
Today is January 6.  Remember what happened two years ago?  Well, the Republicans are up to it again to pick on the fragility of Democracy in the USA.  Of course you can blame Donald Trump again for what is happening in the U.S. House.  Then again, witness how powerless he is this time to do anything about it.

While this is not unprecedented, here is the current situation this morning, with the House now into it's 13th vote, where McCarthy will again lose:

The Republican standoff over Rep. Kevin McCarthy's speaker bid, which now enters its fourth day, has meant that none of the 434 people elected to the House in November have been sworn in. The rules that previously governed the lower chamber have expired.

Other business in the House is also paralyzed.

Freshman members-elect haven't been able to set up their House email to help serve constituents. Committees can't hire new staffers. Lawmakers have lost their security clearances. And the presidential line of succession is interrupted.


First, a little history about our U.S. House of Representatives.  Independence Day began in 1776, but the first Federal Congress did not meet until 1789 with 65 House seats.  
  • Parties did not develop until 1795 with the Federalists and Democratic Republicans and 106 seats.
  • The number of House seats increased to 213 in 1823, plus, with new parties:
    • Adams-Clay Republicans.
    • Jackson Republicans.
    • Crawford Republicans.
    • Adams-Clay Federalists.
    • Jackson Federalists.
    • Crawford Federalists.
  • Sense returned in 1825 with only the Adams and Jacksonian parties.
  • This was clarified in 1829 to Anti-Jacksonians and Jacksonians.
  • Now up to 242 House seats in 1837, there were five parties:  Democrats, Whigs, Anti-Masonics, Nullifiers and Independent.
  • The south began to secede, and House seats declined to 223 in 1843.
  • 1855 was a particularly difficult year, for with 83 Democrats, 51 Americans (known as the Know-Nothing Party) and 100 Oppositions (this was the party name).
    • There was conflict over slavery and immigration.
    • 21 individuals vied for the Speaker post.
    • After 133 ballots and two months, Nathaniel Banks (right) was voted in as speaker for ALL of the parties.  Hey McCarthy and Democrats, this can apparently be an option!!!  He went on to become governor of Massachusetts.
  • Finally in 1857, with 234 House seats, came Democrat and Republican parties, plus Americans and Independent Democrat.  Democrats numbered 132.
  • But in 1861 Democrats declined to 44 seats, with the most being 108 Republicans.  
    • Lincoln was a moderate Republican.
    • Republicans had the majority until 1875, with a 135-104 edge from 292 total House seats.
  • In 1875 things changed:  293 House seats, with 182 Democrats and 103 Republicans.  There were three other small parties.
  • Leadership went back and forth, and in 1895 with 357 House seats, there were 93 Democrats and 254 Republicans.
  • Republicans maintained in control until 1911, with 394 total seats, there were 230 Democrats and 162 Republicans.
  • Democrats dominated until 1917, when with a total of 435 total seats, Republican had 215 and Democrats 214, plus 6 in three small parties.
  • Then came that fateful 1923 when there were 207 Democrats, 225 Republicans, 2 in the Farmer-Labor and 1 Socialist.
    • This is the Congress that voted nine times to confirm a speaker.
  • However, no apparent fallout, for Republicans continued to lead the Congress until 1933, when the Great Depression hit in 1929, reversing the tally to 313 Democrats and 117 Republicans, allowing President Franklin D. Roosevelt to institute all the changes that came to our country, including the New Deal and Social Security.  Rich people were blamed, and liberal Democrats went wild.
  • Democrats dominated through the second World War until 1947, when Republicans ended up with 246 seats and Democrats with 188.
  • That was quickly reversed in 1949, when Democrats dominated for a long period, with Republican control only in 1953-55.
  • Republicans prevailed in 1995, and led until 2007.
  • Things have since sort of gone back and forth since then.
One other note about the House.  There have been 435 seats since 1913.  But what happened after Alaska and Hawaii were added?  First, each got a seat, bringing House seats to 437 in 1961.  However, this dropped back down to 435 in 1963 when North Dakota lost a seat.  Those with only one House seats today are Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Delaware.  Watch these states in the future, for those two seats could drop to one for Rhode Island and Montana:
  1. South Dakota (Population: 896,581)
  2. Delaware (Population: 990,334)
  3. Rhode Island (Population: 1,061,509)
  4. Montana (Population: 1,085,004)
Delaware needs to hire Trump to find 71,176 more residents.  There are 336,270 corporations registered in Delaware.  Surely, they should be able to do something with that.

But back to Kevin McCarthy and Republicans, he gained momentum in Ballot 13 when 14 of the 21 recalcitrants switched to him, leaving 7 diehards, led by Matt Gaetz.  Rep. Gaetz, incidentally, was in 2020 implicated in something to do with underage sex trafficking.  However, the current view is that he won't be charged.  The other Never Kevin far-right Republican leader is Lauren Boebert, who only barely won by 500 votes last year, and, read this, should not be a congresswoman.

So who will become Speaker of the House?  Almost surely McCarthy, for only 6 Republicans opposed him on the 14th vote.  If he can get two more to switch, he will win.  This could happen today, this weekend or next week.  But Friday next week is January 13, not an auspicious day.

Of course, you can dream and concoct a whole medley of bipartisan House scenarios, if only a small number  (5 would do, but 25 would be a safe figure) of moderate/liberal Republicans link with Democrats.  In any case, when McCarthy begins to take charge, only then will his real problems begin.  Will he survive any snap speaker challenge for two years?  Maybe.  What about those truly contentious matters?  This fractious Republican group would basically be unmanageable even if they controlled the White House and Senate too.  They don't.  Two more years of this with an unpredictable Supreme Court will go a long way in determining which party can take charge on 5 November 2024.

To close, Mick Lukovich did it again:

- 

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