MICHELLE OBAMA VS CHRIS SUNUNU ON 5NOVEMBER2024?

First, the covid pandemic.  China is undergoing a serious outbreak, and the world is close to imposing a quarantine for the entire country.  However, there was considerable New Year's Eve celebration in Wuhan, so maybe it's not so bad, at least at the site that caused this all.  

Most wore masks, and feared getting infected.  Asked why they showed up into a packed crowd, the general conclusion is that after almost three years of confinement...people just wanted to have a nice time.

Yet, in that same article, the UK-based health data firm Airfinity reported that there are now 9000 DEATHS/day in China.  THE WHOLE WORLD HAD 9686 DEATHS FOR THE ENTIRE PAST WEEK, OR 1384 DEATHS/DAY.  MORE

• The World mortality rate for this 7-day period was 0.32%, based on 9686 deaths and 2,958,173 cases.  That is, just about 3 million cases for that week.
• If China's mortality rate was about the same, that would mean 2.8 million new cases/day or around 20 million new cases this past week.

Here is what we know of the new Chinese BF.7 Omicron subvariant, which really is BA.5.2.1.7.  This strain derives from the original Omicron, so the Omicron booster should be effective.  Incredibly, as of the end of 2022, only 15% of people eligible have been inoculated in the U.S with this bivalent shot.  

No question, if you haven't yet, you would want to get this shot:

In mid-December, the CDC put out new data from two studies that suggest the bivalent boosters offer significant protection against illness and hospitalization. In the first study, 798 patients ages 65 and up received one dose of a bivalent booster in addition to at least two doses of the original, monovalent vaccines. Those who received the bivalent vaccine were 84% less likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19 than those who were unvaccinated and 73% less likely to be hospitalized than those who received two or more doses of the monovalent vaccine.

And, incidentally, it is perfectly fine to get both this Omicron booster and flu shot at the same time.  This is important because more and more specialists are beginning to say that both infections have somewhat similar mortality rates.  What has happened is that, through previous infection and/or vaccination, most have sufficient immunity from COVID-19 as for the seasonal flu.  The menace of covid has diminished.  Except for those who have never been infected and stopped taking vaccinations.

There are detractors.  Tony Fauci for example believes that in 2023 125,000 Americans could die of covid, and a bad flu season only kills 50,000.  Incidentally, at the end of last year he stepped down from being director of NIAD.  But, he says, he is not yet retiring.

Notwithstanding, those who feel that covid is being overcounted say that 70% of our covid hospitalizations are for those who had more serious problems and also tested for the coronavirus.  They think that the daily death toll for both the flu and covid are today very similar.  Looking back in history, the 1957-58 flu pandemic killed more people in the U.S. than covid as a percentage of our population.

Historically, the seasonal flu has had a mortality rate of 0.1%, which is 1 death in a thousand cases.

• During the past week, Worldometer reports that the mortality rate of covid for the world was 0.3%.
• However, during this week, South Korea showed a rate of 0.09%, and Japan was at 0.2%.  
• The USA was at a still high 0.6%.  I keep asking myself, why does the U.S. generally perform poorly compared to countries of the Orient.  I don't have an answer.  A possibly good reason is that many U.S. cases are not counted because most tests are taken at home and not reported.  I hear that the Japan/S. Korea healthcare system more closely monitors all new cases.  China's reportage is almost nonexistent today, but for what they showed, their mortality rate was 0.2%.

In any case, be extra careful if you're old:

...mortality rates for any disease vary by age and other demographic factors. Importantly, COVID remains much more lethal for older and medically frail people than younger people. Recent data from the CDC shows that compared to 18- to 29-year-olds, people aged 65 to 74 have 60 times the risk of dying; those aged 75 to 84 have 140 times the risk; and those 85 and older have 330 times greater risk.

Again:

The danger is especially high for those not vaccinated, boosted and treated properly. And with COVID still spreading widely, they remain vulnerable to exposure from social contact.

So on to my topic of the day.  Who will run for president of the USA in 2024?

• The conventional pundit would say Republicans Ron DiSantis, Donald Trump and Mike Pence, and Democrats Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.

• 
  Forget Trump.  DiSantis is an idiot, and Pence has little chemistry.  However, Democrats will prop up Trump to remain relevant to screw up the Republican party into July of 2024.  And, okay, DiSantis went to Yale, got a Harvard law degree and was the legal advisor to a SEAL team in Iran, so maybe his idiotic actions as Florida governor can be tolerated.  But he also lies.

• 
  Biden is 80 years old and, if he wins again, will need to keep healthy until 85.  Ronald Reagan was only just about 74 on his second inauguration day...and he was already showing signs of dementia.
• 
  The Republican candidate that intrigues me is Chris Sununu, who will be all of 60 on election day.  I mildly knew his father, who, when I was working for the U.S. Senate, was a mechanical engineering professor at Tufts, and went on to become New Hampshire governor and later joined the White House.  Chris is now governor of the same state and is a civil/environmental engineer from MIT, a field I taught at the University of Hawaii.  While he voted for Trump, he has wisely kept out of Trump politics, and might make an attractive Republican candidate in 2024.

• 
  Democrats hope to keep the Republicans in disarray up to 5November 2024, but have no strong candidates.  I've long thought that Michelle Obama had the most to offer.  Her The Light We Carry is currently #1 on the New York Times nonfiction list.  She has always said no, but it is interesting that Barack got noticed for nominating John Kerry as president, and she too did for Joe Biden at the 2019 Democratic Convention.  Here is a video on one outlook, featuring Joel Gilbert, who wrote Michelle Obama 2024.

I had a great meal for New Year 2023.  Sashimi with Glenlivet Scotch.

Then the making of ozoni.

 

With hot sake, cold Kirin beer and chilled Tattinger Champagne, what a beginning to what should be a great year.

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