THREE VIEWS ON GLOBAL WARMING

                        From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142     15512        1151        189      712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar     2        1989      9490        1726       110      194

April   6          906     11787         4211       631       37

May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 

June   1         287    10637         2346      3205       95

 July   7          251      8440        1595        817       411

Aug    4          656    10120        1118         532      423 

Sept   1        1480    10470          703        505      235

          8        1700      9836          250        339     253

        14        1934      9001          709        281      300

        22       2228      9326          839        279      124

        29        2190      8859         643        309     108

Oct    5        1811       7495          686        285     103

          6        2102       8255         543        315       59

         11        1480       6784          176        229       83 

        12        1819        7544          201        249       37

Summary:  

• Higher, but as expected, for the Worldometer Thursday numbers almost always are higher than on Wednesday.
• The USA had 99,775 new cases and #2 UK at 42,606.
• Singapore had 3190 new cases, which for them is extremely high.  On a new cases/capita basis, Singapore was at 532/million.  The U.S.?  332/million, or less than Singapore.

Hooray, and finally, that FDA panel supported Moderna COVID-19 booster shots for older Americans and other adults at a higher risk of infection.  Decision on the Johnson&Johnson vaccine will come tomorrow.

Yesterday I reported on Norway, which has a particularly stable society.  Yet, every so often, someone goes berserk and kills a lot of people for reasons that befuddle local experts.  Keep in mind that Norway has about the lowest incident of homicides in the world.  Japan is way down there at 0.31 per 100,000 residents, but Norway is close by with 0.52.  The USA is at ten times that rate and El Salvador around 100.

A decade ago a citizen lost it, detonated a bomb in Oslo and went on to shoot a bunch of others.  When the dust cleared, 77 were killed.  Then yesterday, just outside of Oslo, someone killed five in a bow and arrow attack.  The only conclusion authorities have is that there are right-wing extremists in the country.  Surely sounds like what might be to come in the U.S.  That latest perpetrator, 37-year old Espen Brathen, was a loner who was a Muslim convert, so you wonder if this one might have terroristic inclinations.

Incidentally, while the Japanese are not into homicides, suicides are increasing.  While their rating is not particularly high (not close to the top ten), just last year, this pandemic induced 415 students from elementary through high schools to take their own lives.  The worst suicide countries are Lesotho at 72.4/100,000, South Korea #4 at 28.6 and Russia #9 at 25.1.  The lowest suicides are in the Caribbean.

Looks like the USA is finally moving ahead on offshore wind farms.  Mind you, the cost of sea-going systems are more than twice that of wind energy conversion devices on land, so there will be challenges.  But the White House is looking forward to the equivalent of 30 nuclear power plants using ocean winds by 2030.  Still, not quite the goals of China, with 73 planned gigawatts and the UK with 40 GW.

A bit of good news for senior citizens.  Beginning in 2022 our (70 million of us) Social Security payments will increase by 5.9%, the biggest boost in 40 years.  In 1982 the jump was 7.4%.  Mind you, don't go out and buy a car, for the adjustment will still amount to less than $100/month/individual.

One more dalliance, the Terry McAuliffe (D, left) versus Glenn Youngkin (R) Virginia governor's election which will occur on November 2.  Democrats have been in power for the past 12 years, but pundits have weighed in to say that this race is now a toss-up.  This is crucial, because Youngkin is a typical clone of a Trump-candidate who will run in November of 2022.  If Youngkin prevails, the Congress will come under Republican control.

However, I still think that, whether it is Virginia next month or the nation in November of 2022, there will be a sufficient number of Republicans with conscience who will not vote for any Trump-supported candidate, not necessarily voting Democratic, but just not showing up at the poll.  Turns out that the betting odds show McAuliffe winning.  So if this occurs, that will omen well for Democrats increasing control of both chambers, against all odds in recently previous mid-term elections.

Nature:

...reported a disturbing study of the world’s youth—a survey of 10,000 people age 16 to 25, from 10 representative countries, for their feelings about climate change. 

Some 75 percent said the “future is frightening.” Fear was more common in poorer, more vulnerable countries—but according to the study, 46 percent of young Americans, and 56 percent of youth worldwide, think that “humanity is doomed.” (Pictured above, protesters during a Climate Change Awareness rally in Sydney.) 

On that note, James Hanson sent me another of his weekly missives.  Started with:

To quote:

The UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) for the Framework Convention on Climate Change will be in Glasgow 1-12 November.  There is a chance that Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister and meeting host, might make this COP more effective than prior COPs, as discussed below. 

Prior COPs have been characterized by self-delusion so blatant that one of us (JEH) describes the backslapping congratulations at the end of the COPs as a fraud.  We cannot blame it all on the political leaders, however.  We scientists deserve a large part of the blame.

Further:

Young people have the most at stake with climate change.  As discussed in a communication last week,[1] they provide reason for optimism.  Potential leaders among young people are capable of seeing the forest for the trees and they have a desire to follow the data.

Two actions are essential if we are to phase down GHG emissions rapidly.  The first, as described many places, most recently at Can Young People Save Democracy and the Planet?,1 is the need for a rising carbon fee as a foundation that will make all other carbon-reduction policies work faster and more effectively.  The funds (collected from fossil fuel companies) must be distributed uniformly to legal residents – otherwise the public will never allow the fee to rise to the levels needed to rapidly phase down carbon emissions.

The second essential action is whole-hearted support for development and deployment of modern nuclear power.  Otherwise, gas will be the required complement to intermittent renewable energy for electricity generation.  Gas implies pipelines, fracking, air and water pollution, and emission of CH₄ and CO₂ that would assure climate disaster.  Modern nuclear power, in contrast, has the smallest environmental footprint of the potential energies because of its high energy density and the small volume of its waste, which is well-contained, unlike wastes of other energy sources.

Not sure if our youth would necessarily agree with Hanson about nuclear fission, but he uses a lot of technical graphics:

The problem with the above is that decision-makers are not particularly swayed by his arguments, which have gone on now for many decades.  In a way, his argument is too scientific.  Coincidentally, the Star Advertiser this morning had two op-ed contributions that presented similar point of views.  They are again hammering on what they have been saying for a long time, and, while they need to continue doing so, not much will happen in Glasgow because nothing truly dangerously life-threatening has yet really occurred.  The FIRE will come, but until then, more talk, more agreement and zero effective response.  That's the nature of our society.

John Horning, executive director of WildEarth Guardians, on Biden must make good on his fading climate-change promise:

• The essence of his plea is that Biden is not doing anything about his promise, and that he is actually doing nothing about Trump's anti-environmental decision regarding the Joshua tree.
• He doesn't even mention this, but the problem is that the Senate will never pass anything that will compromise fossil fuels, one because Joe Manchin is from West Virginia, and two, because the oil/gas/coal industry will find ways to neutralize anything that compromises their profits.  There will be movement if in the mid-term elections Democrats win a few more seats and the House remains Democratic.  But don't hold your breath waiting for anything monumental.

Jeff Mikiluna, outgoing executive director of the Blue Planet Foundation, Hawaii leads the way on clean energy:

• Touts Hawaii leadership in heading for 100% renewable energy to stimulate similar goals for the nation.
• First of all, they're only talking about electricity, which is a little more than a third of the energy used in the community.  Nothing about air transport, etc.
• There is good reason for shifting from fossil fuels to locally produced energy as we won't need to import energy, thus retaining these funds to be multiplied in the economy.  Also, it is more secure, if economically sensible.
• However, it really hurts to:
• Replace any fossil fuel if a particular renewable energy source costs a lot more or is unreliable.  Winds and the sun come and go.  Batteries are very expensive.
• Unilaterally move ahead on global warming measures because that will weaken the local economy to make us uncompetitive on the world market.
• The bottom line is that the decision to make sacrifices and add carbon taxes has to be done by everyone at the same time.

Thus, all three points of view by Hanson, Horning and Mikiluna are wonderful and necessary, but hardly sufficient for real action.  What is the solution?  The FIRE, which will come.  Anything better?  Sure, the world truly committing to do something about climate warming.  Will this occur.  I think not.  So what?  The FIRE, a global crisis somewhat evocative of the James Baldwin's warning.   Hope I'm wrong.

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