HOW DEADLY IS COVID-19?

I promised to post Part 2 of my SETI series today, but I'll again delay it. Tomorrow for sure.

Today, back to the pandemic.  The Star Advertiser this morning had a startling front page headline:

FLU PROVES DEADLIER THAN COVID 

Essentially, here is what the article said:  In Hawaii, on an annual basis, the combined deaths for flu and pneumonia are higher than the 12-month death total for COVID-19.  Keep in mind that the death rate of this pandemic virus is 10 to 66 times that of the seasonal flu, so the latter higher than the former is a bit scary.  And why such a wide range?

• Using data from Worldometer:
• The world mortality rate of COVID-19 is 2%.  This means that 2 die for every 100 cases.
• Depending on who you ask, the mortality rate of the seasonal flu is anywhere from 0.03% to 0.1%.
• The matter of asymptomaticity causes a lot of confusion, for that 2% fatality figure for COVID will someday be much lower when the total cases count also includes this group.  
• Thus, the standard comparison is that COVID is ten times more fatal than the flu.  
• Yet another complication, though, is that there could be as many asymptomatic flu cases as that for COVID.  You would think that something so longstanding as the asymptomatic rate for the flu should by now be known.  Nope.  It is from 30% to 75%, depending on your medical journal.  
• Same as for COVID-19.  A March 2021 medical analysis reported from the available asymptomatic studies that the range was 1.4% to 78.3%?  What????
• One final point about that SA article:  clearly, the publishers primarily want to scare the public so that more would take the flu vaccine.  That's fine with me, but they should still be careful about hyperbolic headlines.

Analyzing further about the general subject and looking at the world.  Each year there are around 1 billion flu cases, from which 290,000 to 650,000 die.  However, in 2016 3 million died from pneumonia.  Of course, some of them also had the flu, so it is difficult to filter out what those numbers really mean when  you try to combine them.  

No question in my mind that the Star Advertiser headline is flawed.  If it had included BOTH flu and pneumonia, then maybe.  But, even then, you can't just add the flu and pneumonia deaths because many who died of the flu did so from pneumonia. 

The article further obfuscated the matter by indirectly alluding the death comparisons from COVID and the flu to the recent year.  There were very, very few flu cases the past season.  This is unbelievable, and while it refers only the U.S., the same would apply to the world.

The flu season generally peaks between December and February each year, bringing up to 45 million illnesses, 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This year, however, as of Feb. 5, there have been only 1,455 cases in the U.S.

While ONLY 1,455 flu cases for the entire country as large as the U.S. seems awfully low, this is from the CDC and you can yourself read that statement.  But I needed a second source, so:

Between October 3, 2020, and July 24, 2021, of the 1.3 million specimens tested by clinical laboratories and reported to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2136 were positive for influenza virus, and 748 deaths were coded as influenza, according to CDC data provided to JAMA.

Hmm...yes, the flu cases look about right.  But how can the fatality rate be 35%?  Something is wrong here.

Further, while nearly 5 million people around the world have passed away from COVID since the beginning 20 months ago, annually 18 million die from cardiovascular problems.  Jump that up to 30 million for the same 20-month period.  You got that?  Six times more people have died from heart ailments than from COVID during this pandemic period.

COVID is more deadly than traffic accidents.  1.35 million globally die from them, or 2.25 million over 20 months.  This is less than half the deaths from COVID.  Too many people die from simple falls:  more than a million in a 20-month period.

Approximately 8,000 have died/day from COVID.  Yesterday this figure was down to 4647.  When the deaths/day from COVID reaches 3699, it would EQUAL the deaths/day from traffic accidents.  This should occur before the end of year, if not by Thanksgiving.

Dr. Fauci was asked if trick or treating this year is okay:

Do you know Matt Amodio?  Watch Jeopardy.  He now has the second longest winning streak.  In 2004 Ken Jennings reached 74, which almost doubles Amodio's number of 38 (final Jeopardy victory).  The 30-year old is a Yale PhD student in computer science and has won $1.518,601 so far.  When can you next watch him perform?  TODAY!!!  His opponents are Jonathan Fisher, an actor, and Jessica Stephens, a statistical research specialist.

All time winnings, regular play:

• Ken Jennings $2,520,700 (center).
• James Holzhauer  $2,462,216 (right).
• Matt Amodio  $1,518,601.

All time winner, including tournaments:  Brad Rutter, $4,688.436.  Mayim Bialik and Ken Jennings are now co-hosting Jeopardy.

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