JOE MANCHIN AND THE BUTTERFLY

I keep referring to Ray Bradbury's 1953 Sound of Thunder, for merely stepping on a butterfly in his short story significantly altered the future of humanity.  Of course, this also means that every breath you take, every move you make, would likewise do so.  But purposeful action can particularly make that crucial difference.

From this tale came the term butterfly effect, a concept of chaos theory not made popular until a decade later.  While any accidental act can drastically alter the future, a more specific decision can most surely affect the future regarding that topic. 

Incidentally, the movie, The Butterfly Effect, a 2005 film starring Ashton Kutcher, garnered 33/81 ratings from Rotten Tomatoes, which attracted my interest because I usually side with the viewers.

While Senator Joe Manchin will sign off on the Democratic wish-list bill, which has dropped in value from $3.5 trillion to less than half that value, gaining a last gasp life support to the incubative-state of the West Virginia coal industry, he could just as well have stepped on that symbolic butterfly.  Half a century from today, pundits could well look back on this Manchin stance as the one most important act to severely retard progress on climate control. 

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, will convene in Glasgow, Scotland on October 31.  Conferees were expected to commit to COP21, otherwise known as the Paris Agreement.  This summit was supposed to occur a year ago, but was postponed because of the pandemic.

You of course remember that 2015 gathering, where the world signed on to combat global warming?  Then came Donald Trump in 2016 to scuttle American involvement.  Now, thank heavens, President Joe Biden is set to join other world leaders to usher in a more progressive strategy.  Except for one inconvenient thing.  Senator Joe Manchin has enfeebled Biden's presence, bolstering the position of China and Russia, for both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have chosen not to show up.  If the USA is not serious about leading the world in this most crucial of international issues, why should the #1 polluter, China, or Russia, which can benefit from warming?

It could have been worse.  If Donald Trump had been re-elected, he just might well have stopped by Glasgow.  Why?  That would have been convenient either before or after spending a few days at the Trump International Golf Links in Balmedie, Scotland.  What would he have said?  Don't ask, although you can imagine something repulsive. 

President Joe Biden will first head for Rome to meet with his G20 partners on October 30 and 31.  Then, he will go on to Glasgow for COP26. What will President Joe say? His speechwriter will sufficiently obfuscate the reality.  What else can he do after Senator Joe's encounter with that butterfly?

Bad enough that it could have been worse with Trump, but even with a conscientious Biden, the world is incessantly getting warmer:

For those who will actually watch nothing happen on television, you need a jargon-meter:

• COP26: COP stands for Conference of the Parties. Established by the UN, COP1 took place in 1995 - this will be the 26th

• Paris accord: The Paris Agreement united all the world's nations - for the first time - in a single agreement on tackling global warming and cutting greenhouse-gas emissions
• IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change examines the latest research into climate change

• 1.5C: Keeping the rise in global average temperature below 1.5C - compared with pre-industrial times - will avoid the worst impacts of climate change, scientists say

These were the intended goals:

As host nation, the UK will likely want all countries to back a strong statement that recommits to net zero emissions by 2050 - as well as big reductions by 2030.

It will also want specific pledges on ending coal, petrol cars and protecting nature. 

Developing countries will want a significant financial package over the next five years, to help them adapt to rising temperatures.

Enough is enough, but one more time for overkill, read summaries from Deutsche Welle, the German public state-owned international broadcaster (click on each title to read the details):

Climate crisis: Why do we need COP anyway?

With COP26 to get underway in Glasgow on November 1, let's assess what has been achieved — and what hasn't — over the past quarter of a century of climate conferences.   

What's at stake at COP26? 

A UN climate summit in Glasgow will pressure world leaders to stop burning fossil fuels, stabilize global temperatures and share money to adapt to increasingly extreme weather.   

IEA warns world's clean energy transition is 'too slow'

The International Energy Agency has long been accused of undermining climate action. Now, ahead of a global climate summit, it has called on governments to make stronger commitments.   

Here is an optimistic potential of COP26.  My dream?  The advanced showing of my TEDx talk on the Blue Revolution to the conferees elicits the interest of someone who sends it to a billionaire who funds the Pacific International Ocean Station, for our initiative is the only geoengineering solution to global warming supporting a cornucopia of profit pathways for mariculture, sustainable energy and ocean cities.  When the program being pulled together by Blue Revolution Hawaii in cooperation with COP26 and the TED organization for December 11 is finalized, this blog site will provide details on how to watch the event.

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