THE END OF BIG OIL AS WE KNOW IT

From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa

June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82

July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572

Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130

Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82

Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85

Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118

Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465

Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712

Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398

25 2414 10578 1582 119 144

Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194

31 1115 12301 3950 458 58

April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37

May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59

26 607 12348 2399 3842 101

June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95

2 514 10984 2394 2899 110

Summary:

Well, maybe not so terrific as it might have previously looked.
The U.S. had 16,974 new cases yesterday, which would translate to 300 deaths/day a week or two from today.
India had 134,105 new cases yesterday, which would translate to 1600 deaths /day a week or two from now, a good decline from 2899.

Last week the world was shaken by three astonishing developments in Big Oil:

Royal Dutch Shell had already pledged to cut its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. But a court in the Netherlands ordered the company to act FASTER!

At a Chevron's shareholder meeting, investors voted to demand that the company reduce its contribution to climate change. While the use of renewable energy to power oil and gas operations were becoming commonplace, they told the company to sell LESS OIL IN THE FUTURE.

A shareholder revolt occurred at Exxon Mobil, for they replaced on their board two old-time oilers with two environmentalists.

The bottom line is that investors thought that more oil and gas was a bad long-term investment. The thought was that with world governments getting serious about climate change, further investment to produce more fossil fuels would lead to something called stranded assets.

The amazing recognition was that, finally, renewable technologies are indeed more economical, cleaner and better than fossil fuels. What is happening is that wind and solar farms are cheaper than conventional and air polluting options, heat pumps are replacing natural gas to heat homes, and batteries have arrived to make obsolete internal combustion engines. Europe and China have leaped ahead of the USA in taking global warming seriously, and taking steps to install sustainable alternatives. Money managers like BlackRock and state retirement systems are abandoning oil in their portfolios.

The oil industry has suggested that curtailing production will only raise the price of petroleum. Indeed, this upturn is occurring because, while the $110/barrel price of 7-10 years ago is now around $60-$75/barrrel, it is destined to return into the $100s....until it drops again in the longer term future.

There are two oil prices, the WTI crude of the U.S. at $68.82/barrel today, and the European Brent Crude at $71.30. In November of 2020 the price was around $36/barrel, so oil has doubled in a little more than six months. Interestingly enough, the price of natural gas has remained about the same.

The Financial Post said in April:

Oil producers could face a potentially catastrophic Brent oil price of US$10 per barrel if countries around the world move to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a new study from Wood Mackenzie.

THIS IS WHY BIG OIL IS CONCERNED.

I have a friend who will be undergoing a colonoscopy today. So in tribute to his coming experience:

Ah, but that's no way to end this posting. What about something that happened 45 years ago when Rick Monday of the Chicago Cubs made what has been described as the greatest play ever made in Major League Baseball:

Here is a more complete version, and what is not shown is that the Los Angeles Dodgers' crowd sang God Bless America as the two perpetrators were escorted off the field.

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases. Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6, is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples . However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6. Here is a reference as to what this means. A series of two injections is involved. Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome. This strain has also been spreading in

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

Before I get into my third, and final, part of this cruise series, let me start with some more newsworthy topics. Thursday was my pandemic day for years. Thus, every so often I return to bring you up to date on the latest developments. All these subvariants derived from that Omicron variant, and each quickly became dominant, with slightly different symptoms. One of these will shock you. There has been a significant decline in the lost of taste and smell. From two-thirds of early patients to now only 10-20% show these symptoms. JN.1, now the dominant subvariant, results in mostly mild symptoms. However, once JN.1 infects some, there seem to be longer-lasting symptoms. Clearly, the latest booster helps prevent contracting Covid. A competing subvariant, BA.2.86, also known as Pirola , a month ago made a run, but JN.1 prevailed. No variant in particular, but research has shown that some of you will begin to lose hair for several months. This is caused by stress more than anythi

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These are held every five years, and there have only been

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