THE END OF BIG OIL AS WE KNOW IT

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY   USA   WORLD   Brazil     India  South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82

July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518     118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299     465

Jan     14       4142     15512        1151         189     712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107     398

          25       2414    10578         1582        119     144

Mar     2        1989    9490         1726        110     194

          31         1115   12301          3950       458      58

April   6         906   11787           4211         631      37

May    4         853   13667          3025      3786     59 

         26         607    12348         2399      3842    101 

June    1         287    10637         2346      3205     95 

           2         514     10984         2394      2899    110

Summary:  

• Well, maybe not so terrific as it might have previously looked.  
• The U.S. had 16,974 new cases yesterday, which would translate to 300 deaths/day a week or two from today.
• India had 134,105 new cases yesterday, which would translate to 1600 deaths /day a week or two from now, a good decline from 2899.

Last week the world was shaken by three astonishing developments in Big Oil:

• Royal Dutch Shell had already pledged to cut its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.  But a court in the Netherlands ordered the company to act FASTER!

• 
  At a Chevron's shareholder meeting, investors voted to demand that the company reduce its contribution to climate change.  While the use of renewable energy to power oil and gas operations were becoming commonplace, they told the company to sell LESS OIL IN THE FUTURE.

• A shareholder revolt occurred at Exxon Mobil, for they replaced on their board two old-time oilers with two environmentalists.

The bottom line is that investors thought that more oil and gas was a bad long-term investment.  The thought was that with world governments getting serious about climate change, further investment to produce more fossil fuels would lead to something called stranded assets.

The amazing recognition was that, finally, renewable technologies are indeed more economical, cleaner and better than fossil fuels.  What is happening is that wind and solar farms are cheaper than conventional and air polluting options, heat pumps are replacing natural gas to heat homes, and batteries have arrived to make obsolete internal combustion engines.  Europe and China have leaped ahead of the USA in taking global warming seriously, and taking steps to install sustainable alternatives.  Money managers like BlackRock and state retirement systems are abandoning oil in their portfolios.

The oil industry has suggested that curtailing production will only raise the price of petroleum.  Indeed, this upturn is occurring because, while the $110/barrel price of 7-10 years ago is now around $60-$75/barrrel, it is destined to return into the $100s....until it drops again in the longer term future.

There are two oil prices, the WTI crude of the U.S. at $68.82/barrel today, and the European Brent Crude at $71.30.  In November of 2020 the price was around $36/barrel, so oil has doubled in a little more than six months.  Interestingly enough, the price of natural gas has remained about the same.

The Financial Post said in April:

Oil producers could face a potentially catastrophic Brent oil price of US$10 per barrel if countries around the world move to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a new study from Wood Mackenzie.

THIS IS WHY BIG OIL IS CONCERNED.

I have a friend who will be undergoing a colonoscopy today.  So in tribute to his coming experience:

Ah, but that's no way to end this posting.  What about something that happened 45 years ago when Rick Monday of the Chicago Cubs made what has been described as the greatest play ever made in Major League Baseball:

Here is a more complete version, and what is not shown is that the Los Angeles Dodgers' crowd sang God Bless America as the two perpetrators were escorted off the field.

-