HAS COVID-19 RETURNED?

There was period from early 2020 into the end of 2021 when this blog site on Thursday was devoted to COVID-19.

• Remember that the official worldwide count of Covid deaths is just over 7 million.  However, the suspicion is that perhaps 36 million actually died.
• As far back as late 2021, it was estimated that nearly 44% of the world's population caught Covid at least once.  
• This rate was as high as 79.3% in sub-Saharan Africa, as low as 13% in parts of Asia and Oceania, and 31% in the U.S. and Canada.  
• Forty countries had more than 70% at least once infected.
• Of Americans under 18, through the end of 2022, only 10% were not infected (Novids).
• 25% of Americans had still not caught Covid by the end of 2023.  However, and this was not explained, 55% of adults think they have never had Covid.
• Only 13% of those 16-29 years old were Novids. 
• The infection rate for Blacks and Whites were about the same, around 77.5%.
• Asians 66% and Hispanics 81%.
• A Gallup poll in 2025 shows that 28% of Americans have never had Covid.  This contradicts earlier reports.  
• For those 65 and older, this figure is 39% because they take more precautions.  
• 72% of respondents say they have had Covid at least once.  
• 16% tested positive, but were asymptomatic.
• 21% remain today worried about Covid (particularly long Covid).  This figure was close to 60% in 2020, and 17% in June 2021.  In other words, concern has increased.  Democrats are at 29% and Republicans 9%.
• 59% of Americans feel that the pandemic is over.  But 41% think not.
• The older you are, the more prone you are to death from a Covid infection.  In the U.S., which is similar to the world.

• The Covid mortality rate seems to have stabilized at 1%, meaning one death per 100 cases.
• However, Yemen has a mortality rate of 18.1%, Sudan 7.9%, Syria 5.5%, Peru 4.9%, and Bulgaria 2.9%.
• The U.S. is at 1.1%.
• Germany 0.4%, Switzerland 0.3%, Denmark and Japan 0.2%, Iceland, Singapore, Qatar and South Korea 0.1%
• The mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the U.S. is 0.2%, but this mostly because of complications, like pneumonia.
• Worldwide, Covid killed 7 million over the past 5 years, or 1.4 million/year.
• The World Health Organization reports 290,000 to 650,000 flu-related deaths annually.
• Cardio-vascular diseases kill around 18 million/year.

• This is an infectious disease caused by a virus called SRS-CoV-2.
• This virus is constantly mutating.  Prominent variants included Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma and Omicron.

• 
  Alpha (B.1.1.7) first appeared in the UK in November of 2020.  Was 30% to 50% more contagious than the original strain, and caused more severe symptoms.
• Beta, or B.1.351 germinated in South Africa at the end of 2020, and caused more hospitalization and death than Alpha.  Was not common in the USA.  Vaccines did not help much.

• 
  Gamma, also known as P.1, came from Brazil later in 2020, and first reported, actually, in Japan.  Tourists who came back from Brazil.  Identified in the U.S. at the end of January 2021.
• Delta came from India in late 2020.  Estimated to be 80% to 90% more transmissible than Alpha. Scared people to be vaccinated, which worked.  

• 
  The original Omicron, BA.1, is gone.
• First identified in Botswana and South Africa in November of 2021.
• Spawned a number of subvariants like EG.5 or Eris and BA.2.86 or Pirola.

• 
  The Omicron subvariants spread well, but kept replacing itself with new subvariants.  The currently dominant strain is NB.1.81, or Nimbus.
• Easily transmissible.
• Replaced LP.8.2 and is currently 43% of all U.S. cases.

• 
  Named by Canadian evolutionary biologist T. Ryan Gregory, who also coined the FLiRT strains.
• Causes a painful symptom:  razor blade throat.

• 
  First emerged in China and other parts of Asia.
• Came to the USA in March from visitors.
• Has been detected in more than half of the nation's states.
• In mid-July jumped test positivity from 1.1% to 4.8%.

• 
  Hawaii in particular is being infected.
• Positivity was already 10.9% ten days ago.
• Jumped to 12.4 % this past weekend.
• 7-day average of new cases also rose on all the islands.
• Other states being struck include Texas, Iowa and Virginia.

• 
  I just went to Worldometer, and here is the current situation in the U.S. regarding total cases/million population.
• #1    Rhode Island       418,935
• #2    Alaska                 412,159.
• #3    North Dakota      406,778
• #4    Tennessee           399,703
•         USA average      337,912
• #39  Hawaii                295,485
• #51  Oregon               235,417

• 
  Those above numbers, however, reflect COVID cases since the beginning.  So that wasn't helpful.
• The following from Worldometer is also not so useful (as most nations have abandoned counting), but about new cases during the past 7 days:
• World                  45,737
• #1    Russia         19,954
• #2    USA            15,599
• #3    Australia       4,992
• #4    Germany         705
• #10  Romania          315
• From another source, using World Health Organization data. Retrieved on 22July2025.
• Thailand is the world hotspot, with 32,000 new cases this week!!!  Planning to travel there?  You might want to reconsider.
• Brazil is #2 with around a thousand, followed by Greece and the UK.  Don't see the USA.

What about vaccinations?

• Most Americans have likely gone a year or longer without a Covid shot.
• In May, the FDA asked drugmakers to update their Covid vaccines to target the LP.8.1 strain, which then accounted for 31% of U.S. Covid cases, for fall, which is a few months away.

• 
  But the dominant strain now is NB.1.81.
• Apparently these subvariants are all still Omicron, so better an obsolete vaccine than none at all.
• The current White House administration is very much wishy-washy on vaccinations.  Thus, only adults 65 and over, adults with certain pre-conditions and kids have approved for that fall program.  Healthy people can still get shot, but for around $140, as medical insurance will not cover this cost for those not on approved list.

With this hoopla about the return of COVID-19 this summer, the actual number of new cases are much lower than last summer, when positivity peaked in August at 17.9%.  The national average appears to be around 5% this summer.

So Covid has returned, but so far, not so seriously.  High risk individuals may want to consider wearing a mask during indoor activities, like when going to a movie theater.  The expectation is for this summer peak to drop in September, with another wave in the late fall into winter.

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