ENERGY MATTERS

The big news of the day is the longest presidential address to Congress in history.  President Donald Trump talked for a little more than 100 minutes.  I watched the whole thing, and wonder why.

• 
  Many Democrats did not even show up, and some just left during his speech, with Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) being booted out.  Several held small signs.  Women wore mostly pink.  Others wore blue/yellow in support of Ukraine.
• He mostly bragged about doing so much.

• 
  He repeated his assertion to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal.
• Assailed the Biden Administration a lot, calling Joe the worst president in American history.  One of his lies/exaggerations, for polls have Trump as the worst.  In that survey, Biden came in as the 14th greatest president.
• Here is one example:

“Over 130,000 people, according to the Social Security databases, are aged over 160 years old,” Trump asserted. He then added there are 1,041 people over the age of 220. The claims have been thoroughly debunked, with even his own Social Security chief explaining it is a misreading of an ancient federal database, one that could cost $9 million to update, and none of those “people” were getting monthly checks.

• 
  He will get some viral moments.

If the cruelty was the point of the first Trump term, then the chaos is the thesis of the second. As TIME’s Eric Cortellessa reported going into the evening, Trump’s team was more interested in staging moments to go viral than presenting an operating argument for actually governing. He did not leave the Capitol empty handed. There were plenty of headlines, made-for-TV moments, and memes that partisans of all stripes can exploit.

• 
  Watch this CNN video fact-checking Trump.
• Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan) gave the Democratic rebuttal.  Brought up the Democracy at risk matter.  Said Ronald Reagan is rolling in his grave.  Did well.  Looks like a future leader.

But Democrats are treating all this in a business as usual manner.  They think Trump is irritating so many people who supported him in the 2024 presidential election, that they will return Democrats to power in the U.S. Congress.  But this is not how it works anymore.  Trump has the power to cancel the mid-term election in 2026.  Might be unconstitutional, so the Supreme Court could yet check him.  However, he now is in full control of the Federal government, such that he can set aside Democracy and just make himself a dictator.  Anyone who seriously objects will, like in Russian, just be thrown in jail or executed.  Supreme Court?  He will find a way to neutralize them.  Details?  To come.  There are few options to check him, and one failed last year, twice.

The Supreme Court actually made an anti-Trump decision, rejecting his bid to freeze $2 billion in foreign aid.  Is this just an aberration, or are they beginning to show some conscience?  

My sci-tech Wednesday posting will return to Energy Matters, a newsletter sent to me by the American Energy Society.

• Below, graphic indicating the net loss of 780 coal-fired power plants since 2000.  

• Global investment to decarbonize heavy industries totaled just $31 billion in 2024, a decline of 60% compared with 2023. Clean steel projects took the biggest hit in financial commitments. 
• 
  EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is preparing to revoke $20 billion in grants already awarded, including the bank that oversees the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.
• Total job terminations so far: 400+ at EPA, 2,300+ at the Interior Department, 1,800+ at the Energy Department, 3,400+ at the US Forest Service, and thousands at various other agencies; these totals do not include forthcoming dismissals at NOAA, NASA, Justice, nor the thousands of people who have federal awards to conduct research in universities and national laboratories.

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  Spotlight: A number of climate science SMEs are concerned that extreme weather is becoming literally unpredictable.  
  • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate pattern can no longer be used to forecast how mild or cold the winters will be in the Northern Hemisphere. 
  • Flood modeling is unreliable (Fathom chief scientist Oliver Wing criticized some widely used models, suggesting that "a chimpanzee could do a better job.")
  • Extreme weather has become unpredictable, both in forecasting (frequency and intensity) and in consequences (on crops).
• 
  Environmental scientists predicted that El Niño, combined with decreasing air pollution that cools the earth, would cause temperatures to increase. But those two factors are not sufficient to explain the world’s recent record heat. There is a third possible factor: fewer clouds, which could add to a feedback loop that leads to more warming.
• Global air traffic rose by 10% to an all-time high last year. (Note: Air travel already accounts for 2.5% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.)
• How well is the world doing to meet the Paris Agreement?

The UK is the only economically developed country in the world that is on pace to meet its Paris emission targets. 

• Here is something you did not know:

Sub-marine transcontinental cables handle nearly 95% of internet traffic and $10 trillion in daily financial transactions. As reliance on these cables increases, so does risk. Between 100 and 200 cables are damaged every year due to accidents, natural disasters, or deliberate sabotage.

• 
  I  always thought Hawaii was #1, but, Google AI says that California has the highest gas prices in the U.S.  For one, they have the highest gasoline taxes in the country.  Also:

California is a “gasoline island.” It does not connect with any multistate logistics network, which means there are no pipelines that supply gasoline from other states. Ocean shipments into the state are restricted by the US Jones Act. Further complicating matters, California requires a special blend of gasoline. The result: gasoline imports add up to only 8% of California supply; the other 92% is nearly all produced at California refineries.

• 
  Know anything about Lucid Motors?
• An American auto-tech company involved with electric vehicles and powertrains. 
• However, majority (60%) ownership by the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia.
• First formed in 2007 with founders, Bernard Tse (who came from Tesla), Sam Weng, Sheaupyng Lin and Britisher Peter Rawlinson.  They have a link to China.
• 
  Headquartered in Newark, California.
• Went public in 2021
• Began selling their Lucid Air sedan made in Casa Grande, Arizona in 2021.
• 
  In late 2024 made available its Lucid Gravity SUV to compete against Tesla's Model 3.
• Uses Panasonic lithium-ion batteries.
• Has a 450-mile range.
• 0-60 time less than 3.5 seconds.
• Starting price of $80,000.
• However, their midsize SUV will be built in Saudi Arabia, for sale in late 2026 for $48,000.  May be called Earth.
• 
  From Energy Matters:

Tesla EV sales are declining, but sales of Lucid's Gravity are soaring, primarily because the SUV has improved recharging capabilities. Gravity can add up to 200 miles of distance on just 12 minutes of charge and has a maximum range of 450 miles on a single full charge.

• Again, something you probably did not know:

- Spotlight: Transformers. The single greatest bottleneck for the US power grid is the availability of electricity transformers. There is limited global manufacturing of the devices that are essential to stabilizing power system voltages and efficiency. 

 

• The US system has 60 million to 80 million distribution transformers but demand is surging.
• About 55% of residential transformers are more than 40 years old.
• There are over 80,000 transformer types throughout the US power system (image insert: a sample of transformer types).
• A new transformer ordered today will take about three years to get delivered.
• A surprise:

Global electricity use is on pace to increase by 4% annually, the equivalent of adding Japan’s annual electricity consumption every year.

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