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HAVE YOU BEEN INFECTED BY COVID?

  From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020
June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
2021
Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
2022
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64
June    2         216      1413         130          10        31
July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 
Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?
Sep    1          272       1732         174            ?         ?
Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?
Nov    3          167         980           16            ?         ?
        10          148         985           42            6         ?
        19            66         567           36           21        ?
        25            88         985           71             3        ?
Dec    3          149       1029          131            3         ?
 
Summary:
  • The pandemic is not quickly going away,  We might have to wait until warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere.  90% of us live in the north.
  • From NBC News, 85% of recent Covid deaths were among people over 65.  While that is alarming, older people from the beginning were dying at the highest rate.  For example early in 2020:
"Overall, 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged ≥65 years with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years," the report said.
  • At the end of November this year 9 out of 10 Covid deaths were to those 65 and older. 
  • Unfortunately, something bad has happened to this elder group.  While 94% of them got the initial two vaccinations, very few went on to get those additional three boosters.  Especially key to living is to progress to the stage of taking that final booster targeted against both the initial virus and the Omicron variants.  
  • Both Pfizer's and Moderna's shots work well, and outperform earlier doses.
  • The FDA had approved this fifth shot BEFORE human trials.  This risky move worked, and safely.
  • Just to re-unsure, though, new sub variants GB.1.1 and GB.1 are on the rise, and it is unclear yet how this omicron version will resist.
Going back to the latest Worldometer data:
  • New cases yesterday (in parentheses, new cases/million population):
    • #1 Japan  109,928 (875)
    • #2  France  59,008 ((900)
    • #3  S. Korea  52,987 1032)
    • #4  Brazil  39,251 (182)
    • #5  USA  32,724 (98)
    • #6  Germany 27,841 (332)
    • #7  Australia  18,695 (717)
    • #8  Taiwan  14,081 (589)
    • #14  China  4,278 (3)
      • Remember, you need to multiply this China number by 10 because they don't count those who are asymptomatic, which happens to hover around 90%.
      • Thus, 42,780 new cases place China at #4 in the world...and rising.  However, the 30 new cases/million would still be quite low.  That could easily jump by another factor of ten when the central government relents and transitions into normality.  Thus, in a month or two, it would not be surprising if the true new cases/day figure approaches 500,000.
  • According to Worldometer, more than 6 million people have died from Covid.  

  • Now, the total number of Covid cases in the world. 
    • Worldometer says 649 million cases with 6.6 million deaths, or a mortality rate of 1%.
    • A decent guess then is to divide the 1% into the 15 million deaths, resulting in 1.5 billion people in the world thus being infected with Covid.  Thus, the odds of you being infected by this virus is around one in five.
    • However, asymptomaticity remains a largely unknown number.
      • When China tries to test everyone in a small area, they almost always get 90% asymptomatic cases.
      • If that percentage prevails, the world might have suffered from 6.5 billion cases, or the odds of you having been infected by the Covid virus could well have been 8 in 10, or 80%.
      • Hard to believe it can be that high, for I live in a seniors community, they test us for anything, even a minor sore throat, and I would doubt if 10% of us got infected.
    • So the percentage of people who have ever caught Covid ranges from: 
      • 8% (649 million confirmed world cases divided by the 8 billion world population).
      • 20% (using WHO data, indicating there have been many more deaths than reported).
      • 80% (if you believe that there are ten times more cases because of asymptomaticity.
Tomorrow I'll post on the Story of India, providing my refreshed view of the country after our stops there.  I'll end today with two photos from a lunch we had at Pacific Rim with Paige and Greg from Waimanalo.  I had a ceviche, sashimi salad and Manhattan Clam Chowder, starting with a Kir Royal, and moving on to Wente Chardonnay than that Fume Blanc you see in the photo.  We were plotting our Sunday breakfast at Compass Rose tomorrow, which will be featuring CAVIAR.
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