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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE MONKEYPOX OUTBREAK?

              From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

    DAY   USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142      15512        1151        189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1         439      4056         290         52        12
May    5         225      2404        151            ?        64 
June    2        216      1413          130          10        31 
July    7         320       1958        297          38         9 
Aug   4          311        2138         258          70         ? 
Sep    1          272       1732          39            ?          ? 
Oct    6         281        1305        119            9          ?
        12          322        1254          60          12         ?

Summary:
  • The USA had the most number of new COVID-19 deaths yesterday, followed by Germany, Russia, Hungary and Italy.
  • In new deaths/million population:
    • #1  Hungary 11
    • #2  Martinique  8
    • #3  Germany, Taiwan, Czechia, Latvia, Croatia, Lithuania  2
    • #9  Italy, USA, Hong Kong, Slovenia, Serbia, Denmark, Bulgaria, Slovakia  1
  • Germany had the most number of new cases with 145,213, followed by France 67,948, Taiwan, Italy, Japan and the USA 35,331.
  • In new cases/million population:
    • #1      Martinique  3235
    • #2      Taiwan  2189
    • #3      Austria  2029
    • #4      Germany  1721
    • #5      Singapore  1614
    • #11    France  1036
    • #16    South Korea  594
    • #17    Japan  362
    • #31    USA  105
    • #37    Australia  50
    • #41    UAE  33
    • #59    South Africa  6
    • #80    China  0.3
    •           World  66
  • Mortality rate yesterday:
    • World  0.24%
    • USA  0.9%
    • Germany  0.12%
    • Japan  0.12%
    • S. Korea  0.05%
    • Why is the USA' mortality rate so high? 
      • Deaths generally come around two weeks after being infected, so to just use the new deaths and new cases of yesterday is not quite correct.
      • Two days ago, the USA mortality rate was 0.6%, so for some reason, we seem to be much higher than other countries.
      • In the 2018/19 flu season, the U.S. had a mortality rate of 0.1%.
        • The mortality rate of COVID-19 is nearly the same of the flu in Japan and Germany, while S. Korea's COVID mortality rate is half that of the seasonal flu.
      • I don't know why our COVID-19 mortality rate is so high.
      • The New York Times showed the following graphs, with the USA being the dark line, where details can be found HERE.
  • One speculation is that our mortality rate is so high is that we have fallen behind in vaccinations and boosters.  Again, the dark line is us, and details HERE.  And, yes, you can blame Republicans for this.  Plus, compared to other countries, our elders and those obese especially fall in this category.
  • If you divide the total COVID deaths by the total cases, the mortality rates are:
    • World  1.0%
    • USA  1.1%
    • Brazil  2.0%
    • Germany  0.4%
    • Japan  0.2%
    • S. Korea  0.1%  (in other words, from the beginning of this pandemic to today, the mortality of rate of COVID and the seasonal flu is equal in this country)
    • My sense of what has happened is that someday, the mortality rates of the seasonal flu and COVID will be about equal once people are vaccinated and boosted.  The annual flu shot from next fall will incorporate this coronavirus.
    • Why Japan and S. Korea have so low a COVID mortality rate is that they were able to prevent infections during the first year, and got caught by the more contagious Omicron variant and subvariants AFTER VACCINATIONS became widespread.
So on to the topic of the day.  Way back in May I posted on SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED ABOUT MONKEYPOX?  I said:
  • Should you be worried?  Not really.
  • Less than 100 total cases in 2022.
  • Only one case so far this year in U.S.
  • Females don't seem to get infected.
  • Most of the cases are men who had sex with other men.
  • Is not as contagious as COVID.
  • While there are no treatments if you get it, there are two monkeypox vaccines.
  • I showed a couple of photos that were difficult to view, and I think more than anything else, similar hideous graphics had an effect.  Here is final mild one.
  • As of a week ago there were 14,000 world cases and 5 deaths from monkeypox.
  • In the past monkeypox had a 5% mortality rate.  However, this time it was only 0.04%.
So what has happened since then?  The New York Times this morning showed the following graph:
Thus, monkeypox in the USA reached a peak in August and has precipitously declined by 85%.  Why?
  • The demographic was limited to gay and bisexual men with multiple partners.
  • The world numbers confirmed 28 deaths, with more than 72,000 cases, a mortality rate of 0.04%, about half that of the seasonal flu.
  • The big jump in the U.S. occurred soon after the world celebrated LGBTQ pride parades and rallies in June.
  • While vaccines helped slow the spread, those vulnerable mostly reduced their sexual activities.  Plus no more parades.  Also, only close contact spreads this virus, while COVID infections are airborne.
  • One lesson is that something like monkeypox can be contained by specifically indicating who is at risk and that behavioral changes can work.  However, the media was mixed on what to say to not antagonize the LGBTQ community, and it was more word of mouth that worked, plus quite late in the outbreak the World Health Organization became more specific, which was echoed by the CDC and New York's health department.
Oh, one final item, the House Special January 6 committee this morning voted unanimously to subpoena former President Donald Trump.  Will he...and when?  Well, the reality is that this committee will expire at the end of this congressional term, and Trump will surely challenge it.  In the past, subpoenas have been served to Presidents Abraham Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson and Gerald Ford.  No future hearing has been schedule, but committee vice chair Liz Cheney did say that they also may ultimately decide to make a series of criminal referrals to the Department of Justice.  Plus, former Veep Mike Pence might yet decide to appear before the committee.
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