NOVEMBER 8 IS ONE MONTH AWAY

We are one month away from the midterm elections on November 8.  There is so much uncertainty and so much at stake this time.  Democracy vs Trump, for one, even though he is not running this year.  The Senate is currently at 50-50, but because Democrat Joe Biden is President, Veep Kamala Harris is the swing vote, giving Democrats control.  The House is a little more complicated, with 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans and three vacancies.

One unexpected development is Republican Senator from Nebraska, Ben Sasse, who was not a Trump fan, and had won a second term two years ago, decided to resign, probably at the end of this year.  Why?  Nothing much to do with politics.  Appears he will become president of the University of Florida.  He has noteworthy academic credentials:  PhD from Yale, taught at the University of Texas and was president of Midland University in Nebraska.  If he leaves, that adds another element of suspense as to which party will gain control of the Senate.

There is a general sense that Republicans are improving their position and that there is today, from PredictIt:

• A 47% probability that they will gain control of BOTH the Senate and House.  
• The next highest probability is a 41% chance of the House going Republican and Senate continuing to be controlled by Democrats.  
• There is only a 16% prediction potential for Democrats leading both the Senate and House.
• Democrats controlling Senate at 53%
• Republicans controlling House at 83%.
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  Scarily enough, the probability that Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker is at 75%.
• For the Senate, four states will be crucial:  Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
• The most recent Gallup poll showed a significant change between August and September.
• Independents remained at 43%
• However, while Republicans were at 24% in August, in September it jumped to 30%.
• And the 30% Democrats in August dropped to 24%.
• I've never seen this kind of shift ever in such a short period.
• 
  While much of what I read and hear suggest that more and more Hispanics are turning to Republican candidates, all of those shenanigans being pulled by Republican governors, and the general attitude of Republicans about immigration, surely should favor Democrats.  Hispanics are particularly important because they now are 18.7% of the U.S. population, compared to 12.4% Blacks.

Republicans have focused on the lackluster economy and rising inflation, plus crime, and those seem to be working.  Democrats are harping on abortion rights and the specter of Donald Trump's influence.

While most polls are showing the above numbers, my feeling is that pundits are overemphasizing history, not recognizing the emotional value of those issues favoring Democrats and almost ignoring the Trump effect.  Here is my take on what will occur on November 8:

• Surely, there are at least 10% of Republicans who should be influenced to either not show up to vote, with maybe a couple percent actually switching to the Democrat candidate, for issues like abortion and gun rights, the environment and the aura of Donald Trump gotta have some influence.
• 
  There are also those never Trumpers, some with money, and others with influence.  Just a few more bucks invested by them on television would sway a few Republicans to switch.
• I don't think too many Democrats will abandon their candidate because of the economy.
• The key group are Independents, for they represent 43% of voters.  Surely, there must be 20% of them bothered by the gall of Trump, abortion and the environment.  If only a small ratio of them leans towards a Democrat, that should make a difference on close races.

• 
  There is one more group of voters, the elders, who while they are more and more slightly leaning Republican, in states like Arizona and Wisconsin, Republican candidates have made social security a key issue.  These two states will make the difference for Senate control.  Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is a certified idiot anyway, so just this latest mis-speak could be condemning.

• Something small, but House gerrymandering historically giving Republicans an advantage, have dropped, giving Democrats a break this year.

• 
  I still think Democrats will end up with 51 or 52 Senators, for there are 20 Republican candidates and only 14 Democrats running this year, plus two special elections, in California, which should go Democrat, and Oklahoma, a Republican state.
• Keep in mind that if only two percent of Republicans and Independents switch their votes, that would make a 4% difference.  There are all kinds of close races this year.
• The key unknowns are Hispanics and Independents.

One final opportunity for Democrats is the next, and possibly final, January 6 House committee special hearing, which is scheduled for Thursday, October 13.  Overlaying all the above, I think, is that abominable Trump Effect influencing the future of American democracy.   Just one more outrageous exposé can be the difference maker to influence those Republicans and Independents at the margin.

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