A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases.  Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6,  is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples.  However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat.

One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6.  Here is a reference as to what this means.  A series of two injections is involved.  Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a tixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab.

More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2. which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome.  This strain has also been spreading in Europe and Asia, looks highly mutated and different, so there is some worry that the newest booster might not be effective.

Interesting that people are more and more being re-infected, as for example, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, who tested positive in mid-August, then again in late September.  He had not been inoculated with the latest booster because he followed CDC directions that people wait three months after a prior infection before getting the updated shot.

On the matter of long COVID, a study of Italian healthcare workers found that 31% of the infected and non-hospitalized cases had symptoms that lasted for more than four weeks.  However, the greater the number of vaccine doses, the less likely the incidence of long COVID.

A particularly disturbing disclosure is that compared with only one infection, six months out from a reinfection, these patients had two times the risk of death, three times more hospitalizations and 2.5 times greater risk of developing heart or lung disease.  Best not to get infected, but reinfection is looking even more ominous.

Evidence is mounting that Republicans are more prone to get infected by COVID, and all data show that Trump counties have a higher pandemic death rate than those who voted for Biden.  Average excess death rates in Florida and Ohio were 76% higher among Republicans than Democrats from March 2020 to December 2021.  Why?

• Vaccine hesitancy is one reason.  Here is one report from last year, summarized by this graphic.

• But compliance with mask use and social distance was another factor.

Finally, Paxlovid is an antiviral medication developed by Pfizer.  

• Works to prevent deaths if you contract COVID-19.  
• The problem is that only 25% of those infected do, and is especially ignored by Republicans.  

Paxlovid data is between Aug. 29 and Sept. 25, 2022. | Sources: White House; Edison Research

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  According to Ashish Jha. White House Covid response coordinator, if every American 50 and above with this disease received Paxlovid, daily deaths from 400/day would drop to 50/day.  
• Only 0.016% of patients over 50 who received Paxlovid died, or one death for every 6250 cases.  
• Rebound patients have milder symptoms if they went through this treatment.

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  The Federal government pays for the treatment, which cost them $530/course.  Once the pandemic is over, you might be liable for the cost, but most have health plans.

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  Paxlovid:
• Is available for anyone 12 and older with underlying conditions, or 65 and older.
• Is a 3-pill course taken at home.
• Two Nirmatrelvir to inhibit the virus.
• One Ritonavir, once used to treat HIV/AIdS, to boost antivirals.
• Thirty total pills: three twice daily for five days.
• 89% reduction of hospitalization and death.
• Works for all COVID-19 viruses, including the Omicron subvariants.
• Said to be a game changer.  But there can be a rebound effect.
• Molnupiravir (Lagevrio) from Merck, another pill, only has 30% effectiveness.
• Best as I can figure it out, makes more sense to take Paxlovid, and if for some reason  you can't, go to Molnupravir.  However, a better strategy is for you to read THIS.

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